As we head into the bye week, it’s a perfect time for the team to rest, heal, and, most importantly, self-scout. The Bucs have achieved a lot in the first 8 weeks of the season: they hold a two-game lead in the NFC South, boast the most wins in the conference with 6, and have navigated the toughest half of their schedule—all while dealing with a mountain of injuries.
Throughout this stretch, the offense has shown flashes of brilliance (just look at the game in Seattle) alongside moments of mediocrity (like the game against New Orleans). They still haven’t played a game with all their starters, and now with Cody Mauch and Mike Evans out for the season, that won’t happen. Yet, they’ve still managed some impressive performances.
That brings us to the last two games, where the offense has looked off track. Injuries are undoubtedly a factor, but given that we’ve had injuries all season while still delivering strong performances, what’s really going on? Yes, Baker Mayfield is dealing with an injury, but if it’s affecting his ability to run the offense, then perhaps play the backup until he can. Tristan Wirfs had one of his worst games as a pro, or maybe Chase Young has suddenly turned into an All-Pro overnight. We’ve been without our #1, #2, and #4 receivers, yet we still put up plenty of yards and points against the Seahawks and 49ers with the current receiving corps. So what’s the real issue?
Could there be an internal struggle at One Buc Place regarding our offensive philosophy? Coach Todd Bowles is a defensive-minded coach who likely believes his defense can win games. He might think that keeping the clock moving with a run-heavy approach gives opponents fewer chances to exploit his defensive schemes.
This wouldn’t be the first time a defensive-minded coach has leaned this way, and it’s not the first for Bowles either. However, we aren’t a run-first offense, and we certainly don’t have a defense capable of consistently shutting down good offenses (and let’s not even bring up the Saints game where we held them to 3 points). We need to put up points. It’s not the old days when Warren Sapp would say, “Just give us 13 points a game, and we’ll take care of the rest.” Now it’s more like, “We need 27 points, and then we’ll try to hold on.”
I think this struggle really peaked after the Lions game. In the second half, OC Josh Grizzard completely abandoned the run game, leading to Baker throwing 50 passes—not ideal for any team. While I agree we went away from the run when the Lions were ahead, the real mistake was being too conservative in the first half. I’ll keep saying it: “Throw the ball early so you can run late.” We’re not a run-first team, and that’s never been our strength, especially dating back to last year. When we do try to establish the run first, we often start off slow and struggle to get going.
Last year, OC Liam Coen effectively used the short passing game as an extension of the running game, which opened up opportunities to run the ball later. This year, it seems like we’re either running or taking long shots downfield. While I know that’s an overly simplistic description of the offense, when we’re struggling, it often feels like that’s the approach.
It’s possible that after the Lions game, and due to Baker’s high number of attempts, Bowles instructed to “run the ball.” And yes, it could also stem from our injuries. Regardless, the offense was as ineffective as I’ve seen in over a year and a half. Thankfully, we faced the Saints, and Anthony Nelson stepped up big time to give us a halftime lead of Anthony Nelson 7, Saints 3.
In the first half, we kept running the ball up the middle on first down, landing us in 2nd-and-8 and 2nd-and-9 situations far too often, which led to long 3rd downs. That’s not ideal for an injured offensive line. Instead, we should be throwing the ball on first down when defenses are still thinking about stopping the run. It eases the pressure on the line and the quarterback.
If there’s one thing I hope we focus on during self-scouting, it’s our run/pass success on first downs in the first half. We need to get back to using the short passing game as an extension of the running game. Let’s not play for 3rd down; let’s aim to get first downs on first down. And perhaps most importantly, let’s lock Bowles out of offensive meetings!
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