Hypothetical: Panthers and Bucs split. Panthers beat the Saints and Seahawks. Bucs Beat Saints, and lose one to either Falcons or Dolphins. In this very possible, perhaps even likely scenario both teams will be 10-7 with a division tiebreaker and the loser is likely out of the playoffs.
Division Tiebreakers:
Head-to-Head: Best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the two clubs.
Split in this scenario.
Division Record: Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Bucs are 2-0, Panthers 2-1. The Panthers Saints loss looms large. In the 10-7 Split scenario the Bucs either win this tiebreaker (if they beat the Falcons) or tie (if they lose to Falcons).
Common Games: Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played against common opponents (minimum of four required).
Bucs are 6-3 and Panthers are 5-5. Advantage Bucs. All remaining games for both teams are against common opponents. In the 10-7 scenario the Panthers would be 8-6. The Bucs would be 9-5. The Bucs win against the 49ers vs. the Panthers loss to them also looms large.
Conference Record: Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of Victory: Best combined winning percentage of teams you've beaten.
Strength of Schedule: Best combined winning percentage of teams you've played.
Points/Touchdowns: Best net points/touchdowns in all games or common games.
Coin Toss: A final coin flip.
Conclusion: The Bucs will win the 10-7 split division tiebreaker if it comes to that. And there's a good chance it will.
And in this scenario the final game will be for the division title and a playoff berth, even if the Bucs are 9-7 and a game behind a 10-6 Panthers giong in.
Great breakdown. Thanks for posting. Now I hope it doesn’t come down to this scenario.
Winning the division at 10-7 isn't that bad, not with the injuries we've incurred. Give credit to the Panthers.Great breakdown. Thanks for posting. Now I hope it doesn’t come down to this scenario.
The Bucs should have Bachman-Turner Overdrive's "Taking Care of Business" playing in the locker room for the rest of the season.
That's all they have to do in order to punch their ticket to the playoffs.
It seems that finishing 3-2 would be "taking care of business" as long as two isn't two losses to the Panthers.The Bucs should have Bachman-Turner Overdrive's "Taking Care of Business" playing in the locker room for the rest of the season.
That's all they have to do in order to punch their ticket to the playoffs.
Finish 4-1 and they have a good chance of resting starters to heal up.
If we can't win out or go 4-1 then we don't deserve to make the playoffs.
Saints, Dolphins, and Panthers 2x is a cake walk.
Panthers aren't that good despite the win vs Rams... They're just hot and cold
If Bucs lose at home to saints or falcons, let’s just call it a day
It seems that finishing 3-2 would be "taking care of business" as long as two isn't two losses to the Panthers.The Bucs should have Bachman-Turner Overdrive's "Taking Care of Business" playing in the locker room for the rest of the season.
That's all they have to do in order to punch their ticket to the playoffs.
yepp, that is quite likely
one game at a time but these next 2 are critically important not to trip over our dicks; being 9-5 would put us in a good spot.
and let's see if Panthers can get by Saints next week in New Orleans; they already lost to them at home
Panthers have had some solid wins this year - Cowboys, Packers, and Rams but they've also looked pretty pedestrian against Saints and 49ers in the last 4 games
If we win at the Panthers and lose one game to the Dolphins for example our home game against the Panthers which looks huge right now could be meaningless due to this tiebreaker. Winning at Carolina won't be easy, but it would blow a huge hole in the Panthers hopes.
Would you rest your starters in the last game if it meant going 10-7 instead of 11-6 and winning the division because of a tiebreaker instead of outright? I think you have to. Winning in the playoffs is more important. It will be fine with me if thats how it plays out.
If we win at the Panthers and lose one game to the Dolphins for example our home game against the Panthers which looks huge right now could be meaningless due to this tiebreaker. Winning at Carolina won't be easy, but it would blow a huge hole in the Panthers hopes.
Would you rest your starters in the last game if it meant going 10-7 instead of 11-6 and winning the division because of a tiebreaker instead of outright? I think you have to. Winning in the playoffs is more important. It will be fine with me if thats how it plays out.
yeah if you already won division and can’t improve seeding, you rest guys in week 18
But if there’s something to play for and would mean an easier opponent for example in first round, I’d play to win
For Bucs to get #1 seed likely scenario:
1. need to win out to get to 12-5
2. Bears to to lose 2 games, to get to 12-5. Need them to split with Packers, lose to 49ers, and beat Lions. Likely beat Browns.
3. Need Detroit to lose 1 more game. Need them to lose to Bears but beat Rams. Likely wins against Steelers and Vikings.
4. Need Packers to lose 2 more games. Split with Bears. Tough games against Denver and Baltimore; likely win versus Vikings
5. Need Rams to lose 2 more games. Tough games against Lions and Seahawks; likely 3 wins with Cardinals x2 and Falcons
6. Need Seattle to lose 2 more games and beat Rams and 49ers. Potential tough games versus Colts and Carolina; likely win versus Falcons
7. Need 49ers to lose 2 more games - Colts and Seahawks; beat Bears; likely win over Titans
8. Need Eagles to lose 2 more games - Chargers and Bills most likely; winnable games versus Raiders and Bills
In this scenario where Bucs, Bears, Rams, and Seahawks are 12-5, Bucs are #1 seed; Eagles, Packers, 49ers, and Detroit all with 11 wins.
All of those seem reasonable. All of them together? That's a heck of a parlay.For Bucs to get #1 seed likely scenario:
1. need to win out to get to 12-5
2. Bears to to lose 2 games, to get to 12-5. Need them to split with Packers, lose to 49ers, and beat Lions. Likely beat Browns.
3. Need Detroit to lose 1 more game. Need them to lose to Bears but beat Rams. Likely wins against Steelers and Vikings.
4. Need Packers to lose 2 more games. Split with Bears. Tough games against Denver and Baltimore; likely win versus Vikings
5. Need Rams to lose 2 more games. Tough games against Lions and Seahawks; likely 3 wins with Cardinals x2 and Falcons
6. Need Seattle to lose 2 more games and beat Rams and 49ers. Potential tough games versus Colts and Carolina; likely win versus Falcons
7. Need 49ers to lose 2 more games - Colts and Seahawks; beat Bears; likely win over Titans
8. Need Eagles to lose 2 more games - Chargers and Bills most likely; winnable games versus Raiders and Bills
In this scenario where Bucs, Bears, Rams, and Seahawks are 12-5, Bucs are #1 seed; Eagles, Packers, 49ers, and Detroit all with 11 wins.
