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2015 NFL Draft Quarterback Passing Chart Project

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This has some good color charts but you will have to click on the link to see them.  I was surprised by the "Throw Location". http://www.detroitlionsdraft.com/2015/02/2015-nfl-draft-quarterback-passing-chart-project/ 2015 NFL Draft Quarterback Passing Chart ProjectFEBRUARY 7TH, 2015Photo credit AP/Chris ReitschPhoto credit AP/Chris ReitschDarren PageThe passing chart project for the 2015 NFL Draft is back and better than ever, featuring 14 of the best quarterback prospects this time around!Samples of at least eight games were taken for all 14 passers, but most have between 10 and 12 charted games. In all, 150 games were charted from the 2014 college football season. Those plus 6 games from 2013 for Sean Mannion and 4 games from 2013 for Taylor Kelly make up all of the cumulative statistics found within this study.My specific process for charting passes can be found at the following link along with the actual charts themselves, game scores by prospect, and comparative statistics from 2013 to 2014 for four of the top QB prospects in this class.PASSING CHART DOCCumulative statistics were gathered across 21 different categories. Seven of them are completion percentages (adjusted for drops and throw-aways) and seven are measures of yards per attempt (also adjusted). All are separated into different areas of the field a QB targeted.Measures for touchdown throws, interceptions, and third-down conversions are also included to round out the grading scale.The final scoring tallies up standard deviations from the mean across those 21 categories. For example, the standard deviation on completion percentage of throws outside the hashes was 5%. With a score that was 9.7% better than average in that category, Marcus Mariota scored a 1.79.A few multipliers were placed into the formula to improve it. Total attempts divided by interceptions was halved, whereas attempts beyond six yards divided by interceptions was multiplied by 1.5. Third down conversion percentages in the three yardage categories were multiplied by a third. Those added to the category for total conversion percentages make third-down numbers worth 9.5% of the total scoring, essentially as two categories.Without further ado, let’s get to the numbers themselves.1. Marcus Mariota, Oregon: 28.672. Brett Hundley, UCLA: 11.333. Bryce Petty, Baylor: 10.414. Nick Marshall, Auburn: 8.955. Blake Sims, Alabama: 6.416. Garrett Grayson, Colorado State: 5.417. Jameis Winston, Florida State: 3.428. Bo Wallace, Ole Miss: 2.619. Shane Carden, East Carolina: 1.3010. Sean Mannion, Oregon State: -7.6711. Taylor Kelly, Arizona State: -8.8412. Cody Fajardo, Nevada: -13.1113. Brandon Bridge, South Alabama: -14.9114. Anthony Boone, Duke: -33.99Before scrambling to find me on twitter to pick a bone with where you favorite quarterback landed, be sure to check out how they actually graded out in the following categories. They will tell the whole story and should prove to be more meaningful than the single number assigned to the player’s whole season.As always, these statistics require context. They cannot adjust for poor offensive lines or poor receiver play even after adjusting for drops. They cannot adjust for offenses that translate poorly to the NFL. They cannot completely adjust for the different things quarterbacks are asked to do.They do put these prospects to the test with a variety of categories that keep any one measure from dominating the final score. They also weigh certain throws more heavily. For instance, if you add an 80-yard TD pass thrown below 5 yards to Sims’ numbers, his final score jumps by 0.29. A 20-yard completion thrown between 6 and 15 yards makes it jump by 0.36. Completing passes to all levels, especially those beyond 5 yards, is king.First up in the statistical categories are the overall marks.TOTALSTotalsQuarterbacks who throw underneath regularly and are less accurate down the field will be elevated in this category. It also elevates quarterbacks whose numbers thrive on yards after the catch on things like screen passes.The next category, throws beyond 5 yards, is more telling of a QB’s accuracy down the field.6+ YARDS6+ YardsMariota’s completion percentage drops 10% while Brett Hundley’s drops 15%. Hundley threw the ball underneath as much as anyone in 2014, so the decrease is not necessarily damning. Interestingly, Bryce Petty actually climbs up the board. The Baylor offense did not solely rely on the quick-hitting passes, throwing down the field more often than one might think.Passers who threw just beyond 6 yards at a high rate, as opposed to farther down the field, will be oversold on this measure. Finding where each ranks at all three levels beyond 6 yards is the next step.6-15 YARDS6-15 YardsThese are the throws that keep chains moving and keep offenses on schedule. The ability to throw the ball with velocity seems to be a common theme among those who threw well here, with Hundley, Brandon Bridge, and Mariota holding their own. Weaker-armed passers like Shane Carden and Taylor Kelly sunk meanwhile.This range was Petty’s best. Petty was at his sharpest when he was getting the ball out in rhythm on perimeter throws to this range. Think back to the Oklahoma game where he was 12/13 between 6 and 15 yards.Winston’s struggles here were notable in 2014. Not only was his completion percentage average, but he also threw 12 interceptions to 10 touchdowns in this area of the field. The first layer of coverage gave him troubles repeatedly.16-25 YARDS16-25 YardsWelcome to the land of Bo Wallace. Dr. Bo sliced defenses up in this range all season. It was the only category that went statistically unaffected by the unfortunate loss of Laquon Treadwell.The intermediate area of the field has always been a statistical strength of Mariota’s. Oregon’s offense gave him many defined throws, which led to big plays in this region. His velocity aided the ability to fit balls in down the field. At the same time, five of his seven charted interceptions occurred in this section of the field.Winston’s 2014 season was closer to average in terms of percentages than most would assume, but the intermediate areas of the field were a strength. Florida State receivers had an incredible 12.9% drop rate in this section, which led to issues in numerous games.These throws often gave Hundley problems due to the footwork and patience they require. His mark in intermediate throws is awful.26+ YARDS26+ YardsTwo new names enter the top of the list in deep balls. Both Nick Marshall and Sean Mannion thrived throwing deep. Their specialties are clearly defined.Winston’s mark down the field took a massive plunge after the loss of Kelvin Benjamin, falling by 12%. The Seminoles lacked the same downfield targets, but Winston also threw some brutal deep passes.Theoretically, Bridge should be higher on this list. His arm is positive No. 1 on his scouting report, but even adjusted for drops, his deep ball was inconsistent. A pair of teardrop throws against Mississippi State and Kent State will leave some drooling, but his deep ball was only average once quantified.OUTSIDE THE HASHESOutside HashesMariota stands out, as most spread quarterbacks seem to do, in throwing outside the hashes. He had a 22:4 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions on these throws in 2014.Carden climbs closer to the top in this category, but his yards per attempt is deflated. East Carolina featured Justin Hardy from 6 to 15 yards but did not press the ball farther down the field as often. When Carden was completing passes on deep routes to the perimeter, his receivers were mostly winning in contested situations for him.BETWEEN THE HASHESBetween HashesThis category can produce surprising results due to some small sample sizes. Hundley’s sample only includes 34 throws, but he did throw seven touchdowns to two interceptions. Had the UCLA offense featured more pro-style concepts, maybe Hundley would have shown more sought-after skills. He certainly flashes the ability to make throws to the middle of the field.Both Bridge and Kelly fell off the wagon here. Whenever a QB is below Anthony Boone in any of these categories, it’s bad news.TOUCHDOWNSAtt_TDMariota sits atop the list again. His red-zone proficiency is certainly a strength. Winston struggled mightily in the red zone in 2014 however. Without Benjamin, Florida State’s offense failed to punch it in through the air too often.Kelly lands high on this list too. His number can be credited to Jaelen Strong, who made contested catches repeatedly, some of which were placed accurately from Kelly and some of which certainly were not.INTERCEPTIONSAtt_INTAll interception totals include dropped interceptions. That doomed Winston’s numbers, which were already poor to begin with in terms of turning the football over. An interception for every 11 throws beyond six yards is alarming. The Boston College game was Winston’s only without a charted interception. Picks (dropped) in the red zone against both Georgia Tech and Oregon should be noted as well.Mariota’s stingy ways with the ball are credited frequently, and the numbers back it up. Hundley should be commended as well for improved decision-making in 2014.THIRD-DOWN CONVERSIONS3rd DownsThese numbers come strictly from when the QB threw the ball. Scrambles or designed runs for first downs were not counted. Drops at or beyond the sticks were counted as successes.Third downs were firmly Winston territory all season long, and that’s after a 5% decrease in conversions from his 2013 season. Even with a lesser group of receivers and a struggling offensive line, Winston rose to the occasion on crucial downs. His 50% mark on 3rd-and-10+ is truly impressive.Sims’ numbers speak to the role he played for Alabama and his comfort in it. With between 5 and 9 yards to go, he was tremendous. When the Tide fell into 3rd-and-10+, he could not hang.Petty was downright terrible from 10 or more yards out. Whether defenses brought blitzes and forced hot throws (which he often did not have) or dropped back to protect against go routes, Petty folded. His struggles against pressure were a big issue here.THROW LOCATIONLocationThe location chart is merely contextual, providing a look into where quarterbacks were throwing the ball.Interestingly, Winston’s percentages fell at every level beyond 6 yards from 2013 to 2014. The Florida State offense became much more conservative in terms of pressing the ball down the field.Petty’s numbers tell a clear story of how the Baylor offense operates, with the lowest percentage of throws between the hashes. He also threw very few balls between 16 and 25 yards, either throwing short routes like bubble screens, hitches and slants or throwing go routes. The offense was little else most of the time.Hundley declaring was met with some uneasiness, but Mazzone’s offense restricted his experience in throwing to all areas of the field. The reliance on throws under 6 yards, mostly receiver screens or swing routes to backs, is too dissimilar to what Hundley will be asked to do at the next level.On top of the categorical rankings, I have some extra content. The first is a chart showing the best passers in each section down the field.BEST BY SECTIONBy SectionThe information from this graphic is mostly trivial. Some earned the section by completing passes well to that specific region but struggling in adjacent sections. The cumulative stats from above mean much more.Each game a QB played in was also scored this time around. The final score for each game is essentially the effect of removing that game’s statistics from the grand total, and evaluating how many standard deviations were gained/lost in the 21 categories. That number was multiplied by 100 to give concrete values.Volume matters in these scores. Playing well across 20 throws will have less of an effect than playing well across 30 throws.10 BEST GAME SCORES1. Marcus Mariota @ Washington State: 48.74Mariota threw five touchdowns to zero interceptions with a 96% adjusted completion percentage over 25 throws.2. Bo Wallace @ Vanderbilt: 40.72With an utterly dominant group of receivers, Wallace completed 15 of 18 throws beyond 6 yards for 272 yards and a touchdown.3. Blake Sims vs. Florida: 38.82Sims’ coming-out party had him at 4/4 on deep throws (including a drop) for 203 yards and two touchdowns.4. Marcus Mariota @ Oregon State: 36.99Four touchdowns and an 84% adjusted completion mark was just another day at the office for Mariota.5. Bryce Petty @ Buffalo: 36.46Petty’s best game before the back injury had him completing 17/25 throws beyond 6 yards and converting 5/7 third downs.6. Marcus Mariota vs. Arizona: 31.55This was Oregon’s lone regular season loss, but Mariota played well. His receivers dropped four balls beyond 6 yards, and he converted 9/10 third downs.7. Jameis Winston vs. Oregon: 31.22An 81% mark on adjusted completions, 343 yards, and 9/11 on third downs is not bad for a game in which Winston was supposedly the second best QB.8. Brett Hundley vs. Memphis: 30.56Rebounding from a poor Virginia game, Hundley was 6/9 beyond 15 yards for 180 yards and two touchdowns.9. Cody Fajardo @ Arizona: 30.50Fajardo’s cumulative numbers would be a wreck without this game. He completed 20/26 throws beyond 6 yards for 238 yards and two touchdowns.10. Brett Hundley @ Arizona State: 29.40An adjusted yards per attempt of 16.5 to go with four touchdowns on only 23 throws is nothing to sneeze at.5 WORST GAME SCORES154. Sean Mannion vs. USC (2013): -41.97Throwing six interceptions in 45 throws and going 0/6 on 3rd-and-10+ will keep any offense from having a good time.155. Brandon Bridge vs. Georgia State: -42.22Against the mighty Georgia State defense, Bridge completed 38% of throws beyond 5 yards for a 3.9 adjusted yards per attempt. He was also 0/5 on 3rd-and-10+.156. Cody Fajardo vs. Louisiana-Lafayette: – 46.08Fajardo is one of two passers to grace the top 10 and bottom 5, which is indicative of his 2014 season. He was 0/6 beyond 15 yards with an interception against the Ragin’ Cajuns.157. Bo Wallace vs. LSU: -50.09Dr. Bo botched this one, completing 26% of throws beyond 5 yards (of which there were 23) and going 3/11 on third downs.158. Anthony Boone @ Miami: -55.45I pray I’m the only one on earth who watched this. Boone completed 44% of throws beyond 5 yards, which is bad, but he also had five interceptions and went 3/16 on third downs.Be sure to check out the PASSING CHART DOC for even more information, including the scores for every single game charted in the 2014 season (plus a few from2013), comparisons of 2013 vs. 2014 for Winston, Mariota, Hundley, and Petty, and all of the actual passing charts themselves.Follow me on Twitter: @DarrenPageTags: Anthony Boone, Blake Sims, Bo Wallace, Brandon Bridge, Brett Hundley, Bryce Petty, Cody Fajardo, Garrett Grayson, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Nick Marshall, Passing Charts, Sean Mannion, Shane Carden, Taylor KellyThis entry is filed under the category: NFL Draft, Scouting Reports.

 
Posted : Feb. 8, 2015 7:04 pm
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