I was surprised to discover that after accounting for Atlanta's week 1 game where they had a healthy D (especially Jones & Neal) they have allowed more points than the Bucs D. Don't get me wrong, if the Bucs don't have the worst D in the NFL its one of the worst. But I was curious to see how it was stacking up to other units.
Points per Game: The Bucs are dead last. 34.6 per game. Indy & ATL are the other two teams at 30+. Unbelievable Baltimore is only allowing 12.8! points a game (helped by playing Bills & Titans).
Takeaways: This is a less obvious but very damning statistic. Bucs are tied for 2nd last in total takeaways with 5. SF, NYG, NO and JAX (surprising) are all at the bottom. INTs are the stat you really want to see (less luck dependent than fumble recoveries) and Bucs have 1.
Points/Drive: This is interesting, measures how many points are scored per drive. I like this because it is more contextual than total points. It’s a more equal measure than total points. BAL is 1st, Bucs are 31st and Falcons are 32nd. Just for comparison, Bucs are 30th in yards/drive and 25th in turnovers/drive. The Bucs also have had the 3rd best field position per drive.
3 & Outs/Drive: Surprisingly, the Bucs are 13th in forcing 3 and outs. This is the first positive stat I’ve seen. A useful one too, as it gets the ball back to the O fast. Keeping in mind positive means slightly above average.
Redzone Points/Drive: How does the Bucs D do in the redzone? Not shocking, 32nd. Giving up 6.75 points per opponent red zone appearance. This is the most damning stat, but also may be somewhat random? Panthers are 31st (6.27) and Miami 1st (3.43).
Offense Drive Success: What % of offensive drives are ending in a TD or FG? Bucs are “only” 30th with 47.4% (Ravens are first with 20.3%). But as we’ve seen, those scores are almost always TDs not FGs.
3rd Down Conversion: This stat can be somewhat arbitrary (like fumble recoveries). Remember, Smith lead the league (I think) his first year as DC in 3rd down %. This year the Bucs are 24th with offenses converting 3rd down 42.9% of the time. Vikings are first, Falcons last.
Net Yards/Pass Attempt: This is a measure of an opponents yards per attempted pass subtracting sacks. Bucs are 1st with 8.6 (1st is BAL). Means teams are picking up big chunks per play and are getting sacked very little. Surprise.
Yards/Attempt: Rushing stat, its kind of a bullshi statistic because it has very bad correlation with long term performance. That is, if a rusher is getting 3.8 yards/attempt doesn't tell us how successful he'll be in the future. Bucs are 3.8 Y/A (27th). Strong run defense with teams probably not bother to rush much.
Penalties: I’ve always thought the focus on penalties (like some were crying about under Lovie) is silly. That’s because penalties in the NFL are often random and arbitrary. Well coached teams like the Patriots are sometimes at the bottom in penalties and sometimes at the top. During their heyday, the Seahawks were a highly penalized team.
But just for interest, Bucs D is 25th in penalties and 15th in penalty yards. Not significant.
DVOA: A measure of defensive efficiency (or value). Bucs are 32nd (ATL 31st). Unsurprisingly, 32nd in pass but actually 21st in run. This is why yards/attempt is a bad pass rush metric. Bucs just aren’t facing many running attempts and are still below average.
Pass Defense by Pass Direction: Interestingly, FootbalLOutsiders evaluates pass defense based on direction and distance pass thrown. First, the Bucs are 26th-23rd-32nd on passes thrown to the Left-Middle-Right. So teams are more targeting the right (or left side of Bucs D). This means they are targeting Grimes.
In terms of “short” (<16 yards) and “deep” (>16 yards) passes, the Bucs are 28th (short) and 31st (deep). That reflects poor play all around, including safeties. You think the D would be
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tl;dr Sometimes a bad performance by the offense or defensive isn’t as bad as it looks. A bad offense or short fields can made a D look worse than it is. The Kansas City Chiefs D is a good example of this. While their unit gives up lots of yards, it does an okay job of not giving up points and forcing turnovers. Thus while it may look like a bottom D its closer to average.
And there's a lot of bad defenses in the NFL this year (unsurprising). While Baltimore brings up the average (just like the Bills bring down the average on O), the Bucs aren't alone in being terrible. I think Atlanta is worse.
But the Bucs D is bad. Like really really really bad. And I know you all think its terrible but I want to emphasize its every WORSE than it looks. I thought there would be some things the defense does at least average at, but from a statistical perspective there’s nothing. NOTHING.
