As a fan I definitely hope to be wrong, but there are a couple reasons I would say Bucs only match their 2023 regular season number or go back slightly. I mentioned the SCHEDULE and discuss that here but also simple statistics. It is statistically less likely that they have the same good-ish luck with injuries (a HUGE factor) and also that they keep a division champ streak alive.
In terms of SCHEDULE:
1. They are not surprising anyone this season
Last season they over performed. I think Fox reported 7.5 wins as a pre-season Vegas line, but almost NO ONE here had the post-Brady Bucs going well into the playoffs. That matters going into this season's schedule in a number of ways. One is the very first game. Last year the Bucs surprised the Vikings in a "no film" game and then had the Bears at home to start off 2-0. This season, the Washington game is a potential trap game and its followed up by the Lions AWAY. The Bucs could start 0-2. Ive mentioned the beginning of the schedule several times in prior posts because MOMENTUM is so critical, especially with a new complex offense that should be better IN LONG RUN but that may cause them to start slow.
Fox reports 7.5 wins as a pre-season line for 2024- even though the team should be better.
2. The Falcons (and Saints) make the division TOUGHER
Just like last year I think the Falcons have the easiest schedule in the league BUT also a new HC, new OC and "the #1 FA QB." And the Bucs lead off with both division opponents away. Again, tough for early momentum, if they lose. They split with both last year. They beat the Saints away early last year, but in the 0-2 or even 1-1 starting scenario they maybe split Denver/Philly and then with both division opponents on the road early they could easily fall way back in the division and overall. (momentum)
3. The ACTUAL schedule - the late BYE
The Bucs get the BYE late, so no time to regroup and that could be critical with a new offense and a slowish start. in 2023 the Bucs went on a losing streak after a week 5 bye, so maybe the early bye is NOT so good (lol), but this season it is week 11
4. The ACTUAL schedule -- really tough stretch
This season the Bucs go EAGLES then TWO division road games and then RAVENS, followed by a likely must-win against the Falcons followed by CHIEFS and 49ERS. Or look at it this way, last season before playing the 49ers away we had Texans and Titans. This season RAVENS, FALCONS, CHIEFS
5. The Actual Schedule - tough to compare because its ACTUAL v projected but this season, according to FOX, we face 8 teams who finished above .500. It was 6 last year. Four with 12+ and it is the same this year. Last year 3 with 5 or less wins compared to I think 5 this year, so it balances out a little. But again, the timing of the games. We have some games we can win during the critical end of the season but right in the middle of that run we have AWAY at Dallas and LA (West Coast games always tough).
OF COURSE, everything could go the other way too. If the Bucs come out early and win the first and UPSET Detroit in Detroit, they could go on to beat Denver and catch a struggling Eagles team and head into their two division road games where a split is fine. BUT, it would seem more likely the Bucs would start slow witha. new, complex offense over starting red hot so does improved defense get us through some of those early games? Maybe
Hope we BLOW EVERYONE OUT!
It's difficult to predict because you never know how Baker is going to play from year to year.
AGREE
this is a huge factor AND there was a LARGE group last year who attributed the offensive success mostly to Canales so how does that same group feel about Mayfield going from the balanced and CONTROLLED (supposedly) one play offense of Canales to Mayfield now having the keys to a much more complex offense with multiple plays at the line (that Mayfield controls), option routes, motion etc.
I hope you are right about the running game because that could be one of the balancing factors
After a quick review of the schedule, I'm predicting 9-8. The total wins could vary from 7 to 10, so I'm going on the high side.
Wins are facts, not feelings.
Right, which makes your argument that "the NFCS is better than the NFCE" one of the most laughable posts posted on here in quite some time.
It's difficult to predict because you never know how Baker is going to play from year to year. I believe Bucs fans are going to be pleased with a very much improved running game. I'm going to be optimistic and hope Baker's play is as good as last year and predict a 10-7 record with a division crown and a seat at the NFC Championship.
THIS RIGHT HERE would be a success.
Anything less would be a failure. It's not that hard to grasp.
We're playing in the weakest division in football...just like last year.
We're playing a 1st place schedule...just like last year.
10-7 or better and deep playoff run.
Put up or shut up.
Bowles fans whooping it up!
One more time for people in the back!
Give me the homer pick. 11 wins. Baker plays better than last year.
We stay healthy. Key young players on defense contribute.
Run game improves.
Bucs get some respect.
I always break the season into quarters; just helps me see the season as an evolution.
Sept. 8 vs. Commanders W
Sept. 15 at Lions L
Sept. 22 vs. Broncos W
Sept. 29 vs. Eagles W
Oct. 3 at Falcons L
1st Quarter: 3-2
1st Quarter includes the extra game, which I view as more of just a PS game. 3 home games to start the season help the offense find some chemistry and get comfortable with the new offense more quickly.
Oct. 13 at Saints W
Oct. 21 vs. Ravens L
Oct. 27 vs. Falcons W
Nov. 4 at Chiefs L
2nd Quarter: 2-2
New OL and new schemes often take time to gel, I usually give about 8-10 weeks before they completely come together. During this Q, I expect to see a lot of procedural flags and miscues by the offense as they grow accustomed to everything.
Nov. 10 vs. 49ers L
— BYE —
Nov. 24 at Giants W
Dec. 1 at Panthers W
Dec. 8 vs. Raiders W
3rd Quarter: 3-1
The BYE gives everyone a moment to analyze their performances through the first half of the season. Adjustments are made, but the identity of the running game and passing attack is there, the baseline offense is fully installed, installs become more situational. Three easier games in a row help solidify these aspects.
Dec. 15 at Chargers W
Dec. 22 at Cowboys W
Dec. 29 vs. Panthers W
Jan. 4 or 5 vs. Saints W
4th Quarter: 4-0
Herbert may or may not be healthy; he'll face 5-6 of the best pass rushes in the NFL before finally meeting TB. Also, both of his WRs are big question marks. DAL-EDGE Sam Williams is out for the season, Parsons may not be in DAL; DAL may not be as good as they were last season. Feel like TB could steal one or both of those games. TB's offense should be fully developed at this point; it's all about health in the last quarter.
Season: 12-5
Season: 12-5
this would be awesome
and yet only 2 games away from "failure"
oh. .. and that is IF and only IF they go deep in the playoffs?
:-)
Bowles fans whooping it up!
One more time for people in the back!
this would be awesome
and yet only 2 games away from "failure"
oh. .. and that is IF and only IF they go deep in the playoffs?
:-)
Dork. Unfunny, shameless dork.
12 wins would put bowles in the coty conversation
The Bucs were lucky that there were no significant injuries last season. Can the Bucs be that lucky with injuries this year? I hope so.As a fan I definitely hope to be wrong, but there are a couple reasons I would say Bucs only match their 2023 regular season number or go back slightly. I mentioned the SCHEDULE and discuss that here but also simple statistics. It is statistically less likely that they have the same good-ish luck with injuries (a HUGE factor) and also that they keep a division champ streak alive.
In terms of SCHEDULE:
1. They are not surprising anyone this season
Last season they over performed. I think Fox reported 7.5 wins as a pre-season Vegas line, but almost NO ONE here had the post-Brady Bucs going well into the playoffs. That matters going into this season's schedule in a number of ways. One is the very first game. Last year the Bucs surprised the Vikings in a "no film" game and then had the Bears at home to start off 2-0. This season, the Washington game is a potential trap game and its followed up by the Lions AWAY. The Bucs could start 0-2. Ive mentioned the beginning of the schedule several times in prior posts because MOMENTUM is so critical, especially with a new complex offense that should be better IN LONG RUN but that may cause them to start slow.
Fox reports 7.5 wins as a pre-season line for 2024- even though the team should be better.
2. The Falcons (and Saints) make the division TOUGHER
Just like last year I think the Falcons have the easiest schedule in the league BUT also a new HC, new OC and "the #1 FA QB." And the Bucs lead off with both division opponents away. Again, tough for early momentum, if they lose. They split with both last year. They beat the Saints away early last year, but in the 0-2 or even 1-1 starting scenario they maybe split Denver/Philly and then with both division opponents on the road early they could easily fall way back in the division and overall. (momentum)
3. The ACTUAL schedule - the late BYE
The Bucs get the BYE late, so no time to regroup and that could be critical with a new offense and a slowish start. in 2023 the Bucs went on a losing streak after a week 5 bye, so maybe the early bye is NOT so good (lol), but this season it is week 11
4. The ACTUAL schedule -- really tough stretch
This season the Bucs go EAGLES then TWO division road games and then RAVENS, followed by a likely must-win against the Falcons followed by CHIEFS and 49ERS. Or look at it this way, last season before playing the 49ers away we had Texans and Titans. This season RAVENS, FALCONS, CHIEFS
5. The Actual Schedule - tough to compare because its ACTUAL v projected but this season, according to FOX, we face 8 teams who finished above .500. It was 6 last year. Four with 12+ and it is the same this year. Last year 3 with 5 or less wins compared to I think 5 this year, so it balances out a little. But again, the timing of the games. We have some games we can win during the critical end of the season but right in the middle of that run we have AWAY at Dallas and LA (West Coast games always tough).
OF COURSE, everything could go the other way too. If the Bucs come out early and win the first and UPSET Detroit in Detroit, they could go on to beat Denver and catch a struggling Eagles team and head into their two division road games where a split is fine. BUT, it would seem more likely the Bucs would start slow witha. new, complex offense over starting red hot so does improved defense get us through some of those early games? Maybe
Hope we BLOW EVERYONE OUT!
Bowles fans whooping it up!
One more time for people in the back!
this would be awesome
and yet only 2 games away from "failure"
oh. .. and that is IF and only IF they go deep in the playoffs?
:-)
Dork. Unfunny, shameless dork.
Biggs, last season there were LOW expectations. You even said the playoffs were meaningless lmao
with LOW expectations you and your Gator loving buddies polluted the board game day threads with all kinds of nonsense. Remember blaming Mayfield for failed RUNNING plays? 😂
what happens this season where anything short of ten wins and a deep run into the playoffs is “failure?”
The Bucs were lucky that there were no significant injuries last season. Can the Bucs be that lucky with injuries this year? I hope so.
Me too!
what happens this season where anything short of ten wins and a deep run into the playoffs is “failure?”
So, you’ve now referenced this multiple times.
Since “coach speak” is your gospel, why don’t you go ask Bowles if getting bounced in the wild card this upcoming season will be viewed as a success?
We’ll wait…
