No, we're not.
Words are there.
Then shit or get off the pot, Captain Morgan.
IN YOUR OWN WORDS, what would be a “successful season”?
In the predictable diatribe that you’re about to post, try and include a record or playoff round measurement.
I already gave it.
missed it probably. this thread is a bit like last years game day threads lol.
Sure. Whatever floats your boat.
I remember you adamantly stating that wins weren’t a QB stats. So, just wanted to correct your mistake.
That being said, hope your 12-5 prediction comes to fruition!
Technically, W-L record isn't a QB stat. It's not any player's stat. It's a team stat, which makes the most sense, as there's a small army of guys that all have to do their jobs well to deliver a W, and it only takes a few of them (sometimes just one, am I right?) to screw up to end up with an L. Of course, most fans use W-L records to argue the relative 'greatness' of all QBs, even myself at times, lol.
All I meant there was that, at times, Baker gutted it out last season, and managed to lead the team to some valuable Ws that a lesser QB wouldn't have. Never meant to imply that he did it all himself or by himself. Without Evans, Godwin, Otton, and Bowles' defense, Baker doesn't end up in the playoffs. I've never said that Baker is elite. I think he's better than alot of people think, but never elite. He can deliver near-elite performances occasionally, but his true level is outside of that category, imo.
It's like this, imo:
The top-10 QBs are game-changers. They can elevate the play of their offenses through their leadership, athleticism (we'll include arm strength/talent here for this conversation), and/or football IQ. Either a combination of these traits or all of them.
Then you have the best of the best, the elite. Those guys can not only elevate the play of their offenses, but they can play defense as well, by how they operate their offenses, keeping the opposing offenses off the field if their defense happens to be struggling, for example. In any given decade I think there's 3-5 of those guys in the league.
Baker isn't one of those guys. He's not going to play offense and defense consistently enough to be included in that group. But he could flirt with the top-10, the game-changers, given the right circumstances, the right combination of teammates, coaches, etc. He has enough arm strength/talent to put him among the top-10 QBs in that area. He's never going to be a top-10 in terms of athleticism, but he's not immobile. He's kind of in the same class as Drew Brees, as a runner. He can scramble around a bit, but he's not going to outrun very many LBs, right?
So, that leaves football smarts. And he has that. He can read a defense pre-snap and understand what's probably coming. He just hasn't always had a great plan for what to do about it. Part of that is the fact that he's never been in the same offense for more than a season. But the other part is he plays too much hero ball at times, and it cost his team. Something like Brett Favre in his early years. But Brett had Holmgren, Andy Reid, and eventually a great cast of supporting characters, to rein him in and give him all that stability/continuity to eventually become great.
So, like I said months ago, I think Baker can flirt with the top-10, because I watched Alex Smith do it with far less physical talent, and a lot less moxy, in 2017. But unlike Alex, Baker will be able to play at a high level in the playoffs as well, because he's already done it multiple times.
But I think last season matured Baker. At some point he started just taking what the defense was giving him, or he threw it away. He started trusting the system/process, instead of thinking he had to win the game by himself with his arm.
Now he has a seasoned OC from one of the most successful offensive coaching trees in the NFL, and Coen loves Baker for what he can do, and he clearly wants to exploit Baker's talents. I think the things Baker learned from last season, in combination with Coen's offense and trust, will pay off this season. Assuming no key personnel get hurt, or Baker, I think Bake's going to put up better stats than he did last season. They may look incremental, because Coen's offense is going to be pretty balanced and the run game will be featured inside the RZ, but Coen's not going to put Baker in handcuffs either. We're going to see some deep shots in certain situations, and Baker is going to deliver in those spots.
It's going to be a fun year in TB, imo.
Sorry for the short novel, guys; bored and this game between DET/NYG isn't very exciting at the moment. And I occasionally like to pontificate and assume I can see the future, lol.
10-7.
That would be an improvement from a year ago especially with this brutal schedule.
I agree with this. It’s similar to what I posted but with more detail (really like your take that we won’t surprise anyone this year. A new offensive scheme will alleviate some of this, but Baker’s tendencies, especially when in trouble, are now a known commodity).As a fan I definitely hope to be wrong, but there are a couple reasons I would say Bucs only match their 2023 regular season number or go back slightly. I mentioned the SCHEDULE and discuss that here but also simple statistics. It is statistically less likely that they have the same good-ish luck with injuries (a HUGE factor) and also that they keep a division champ streak alive.
In terms of SCHEDULE:
1. They are not surprising anyone this season
Last season they over performed. I think Fox reported 7.5 wins as a pre-season Vegas line, but almost NO ONE here had the post-Brady Bucs going well into the playoffs. That matters going into this season's schedule in a number of ways. One is the very first game. Last year the Bucs surprised the Vikings in a "no film" game and then had the Bears at home to start off 2-0. This season, the Washington game is a potential trap game and its followed up by the Lions AWAY. The Bucs could start 0-2. Ive mentioned the beginning of the schedule several times in prior posts because MOMENTUM is so critical, especially with a new complex offense that should be better IN LONG RUN but that may cause them to start slow.
Fox reports 7.5 wins as a pre-season line for 2024- even though the team should be better.
2. The Falcons (and Saints) make the division TOUGHER
Just like last year I think the Falcons have the easiest schedule in the league BUT also a new HC, new OC and "the #1 FA QB." And the Bucs lead off with both division opponents away. Again, tough for early momentum, if they lose. They split with both last year. They beat the Saints away early last year, but in the 0-2 or even 1-1 starting scenario they maybe split Denver/Philly and then with both division opponents on the road early they could easily fall way back in the division and overall. (momentum)
3. The ACTUAL schedule - the late BYE
The Bucs get the BYE late, so no time to regroup and that could be critical with a new offense and a slowish start. in 2023 the Bucs went on a losing streak after a week 5 bye, so maybe the early bye is NOT so good (lol), but this season it is week 11
4. The ACTUAL schedule -- really tough stretch
This season the Bucs go EAGLES then TWO division road games and then RAVENS, followed by a likely must-win against the Falcons followed by CHIEFS and 49ERS. Or look at it this way, last season before playing the 49ers away we had Texans and Titans. This season RAVENS, FALCONS, CHIEFS
5. The Actual Schedule - tough to compare because its ACTUAL v projected but this season, according to FOX, we face 8 teams who finished above .500. It was 6 last year. Four with 12+ and it is the same this year. Last year 3 with 5 or less wins compared to I think 5 this year, so it balances out a little. But again, the timing of the games. We have some games we can win during the critical end of the season but right in the middle of that run we have AWAY at Dallas and LA (West Coast games always tough).
OF COURSE, everything could go the other way too. If the Bucs come out early and win the first and UPSET Detroit in Detroit, they could go on to beat Denver and catch a struggling Eagles team and head into their two division road games where a split is fine. BUT, it would seem more likely the Bucs would start slow witha. new, complex offense over starting red hot so does improved defense get us through some of those early games? Maybe
Hope we BLOW EVERYONE OUT!
Nice post.
Breer has us winning the division:
“I think more highly of Baker Mayfield than most people,” Breer said, adding that he’s very bullish on Tristan Wirfs and the Bucs’ development of offensive linemen.
Breer also has a strong level of confidence in a Todd Bowles defense. He said the Bucs are less reliant on old veterans than the Saints and the Tampa Bay roster holds up under scrutiny.
“There aren’t a ton of holes,” Breer said
I thought he made a well supported case.
Bill Barnwell
”
Full credit to Baker Mayfield & Co. for exceeding my expectations [in 2023], but let’s also be realistic about where they were. They finished with the same record as the 9-8 Saints, who beat them handily when they had a chance to clinch the division at home in Week 17. They were two games ahead of the Falcons, who had a clear problem at quarterback and upgraded by signing Kirk Cousins and using a top-10 pick on Michael Penix Jr. …
I’m not sure there’s a huge gap between any of these teams heading into 2024. The biggest difference between the three might be their schedule; by virtue of winning the division last season, the Bucs have to play the Lions and 49ers, while the others in the NFC South avoid the first-place teams from the NFC North and West. And while acknowledging that this is certainly the weaker conference, I’m not sure any of these teams are strong enough to land a wild-card berth, something I feel more confident about in the case of every NFC team ahead of Tampa Bay on this list.”
Also fair, at this point, we don’t know any of these off-season moves/additions (and subtractions) will make us better/more competitive.
Everyone has a plan until they’re punched in the mouth.
Prisco is a weird case but he's definitely in the Bucs corner:
Wilson said the Bucs are a 10-7 team and Prisco, who has been at Bucs training camp this offseason talking to players and staff, is all in.
“I love this team,” Prisco said. “… They are the team to beat in that division and they know it.”
Breer has the Bucs winning he division
"I think the Buccaneers check the most boxes. Their quarterback, Baker Mayfield, has grown into what the Cleveland Browns thought he’d be in 2018, even if people aren’t paying attention. The offensive line, anchored by franchise left tackle Tristan Wirfs and having added first-rounder Graham Barton should be good. The skill guys are proven. The defense has strength up the middle, with Vita Vea, Lavonte David and Antoine Winfield Jr. as anchors. The play-callers are really good.
Conversely, I’m not sure about the Atlanta Falcons’ pass rush, the New Orleans Saints’ offensive line, or a lot of things for the Carolina Panthers. So Tampa will win it for a fourth straight year."
Not that their opinions matter, or anyone's really, but I think Nick Wright and Phil Simms also predicted TB to win the division again.
Winning the division at 9-8 from SI writer, but the interesting part if his breakdown:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9–8
I had versions of this in my head where the Saints eked out a division championship and a version where the Atlanta Falcons simply walked away with it. But after going through all the schedules individually and building in for the fact that the Falcons have Raheem Morris readjusting to life as a head coach and Zac Robinson in his first year as a play-caller (same for new Saints offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak), I walked away comfortable with picking the Buccaneers to win the NFC South. It’s not just because I’m afraid of their general manager either; I really like the back end of the Buccaneers’ schedule which, I think, will help them stockpile some critical wins.
You’ll notice I have some big wins and also some head-scratching losses here. I like the Commanders in Week 1 because, if you’ll notice a theme, there isn’t really a playbook on them yet. Todd Bowles is good at making halftime adjustments, but what if the Buccaneers are simply not in a position to contain Washington’s new-look offense? That leads into a massive Week 2 victory over the Lions, which is tailor-made for someone like Baker Mayfield to rally the team into. The pattern goes on, with the Buccaneers losing in Week 3 to an inferior Broncos team before repeating their playoff victory over the Eagles the following week. It’s my way of getting at this idea that they can handle the toughest teams, while also wondering whether they’re consistent enough on a week-to-week basis to run away with the division.
Could you imagine beating the lions and eagles but losing to the commanders and broncos? Brutal
it’s a total swag. If this were pre-2023, I could make this argument, but now? You lose to a rookie led, reconstituted, re-caste, Washington Football Team, beat the Lions, then lose to the rookie-led, re-constituted, Broncos…and then take down Philly?Could you imagine beating the lions and eagles but losing to the commanders and broncos? Brutal
Most Buc fans likely drew different circles around those teams (while some think we’ll beat the Lions, but lose to an Eagles team bent on some revenge for their last embarrassing playoff loss to Tampa).
It’s almost like they picked a win/loss record, then tried to add some drama at the beginning of the season.
You can still get to the “Bucs will be better team in the back-half of of the season” narrative- why step in the artsy dramatization of the front half of the season?
I appreciate some media types seeing a bit more clearly after actually spending some time to get to know the team in TC/pre-season, but if we lose to the Football Team, and the Broncos - then that would lead you to conclude we’d be looking at 0-4 start. I don’t think that’s a high probability for this team.
Its weird.
Glad for the positive vibes from Breer & Orr.
Now, can we start this thing already?
Last year we set the bar very high. 9 wins after a 1-7 stretch? Wow.
i was very skeptical of baker. Even on a 1 year 6 million dollar deal. I’ll gladly eat crow on that one.
like another poster said how lucky were we injury wise? Only one I can think of devastating season ender(and unfortunately career) was Ryan Jensen. Big loss.
pr made a good point on their podcast analyzing the final 53 about last year was the “rebuild” year. Aka re-tool.
tough schedule this year. Very tough. Can we stay healthy again? Tough in the nfl but I sure hope so.
between our rookie class(4 instant impact rookies?) & our all pros signed long term the sky’s the limit. Our run game will improve. Our defense should be better(just white is addition by subtraction alone)
the podcast mentioned next year should be the year we really take the leap. Super Bowl aspirations. Less dead money more cap space.
im going 10-7. NFC championship appearance.
