I’m still thinking 9-8, although there have been times as this off-season progressed where I could be swayed to 10-7.
Hitting 10-7 is would be my stretch goal.
Could you imagine beating the lions and eagles but losing to the commanders and broncos? Brutal
Yes. Very Buc-like, actually. Very "NFL team with high expectations."
But the real issue is lose one of those weak team games and lose one or both of the tougher comp . .
Rich Eisen picks the dirty birds
"Boy, do I love [Atlanta] adding [Matthew] Judon and [Justin] Simmons,” Eisen said of Atlanta’s recent addition of an accomplished edge rusher and safety. ” … Adding those two hombres to a defense that already is pretty damn good with Raheem Morris being the coach, I really like the Falcons to win this division.”
the winning games we shouldn't, losing games we shouldnt got me thinking to last year.
Week 1 - Vikings - we were 5.5 point underdogs and won on the road. Game we shouldnt have won
Week 2 - Bears - should have won and did
Week 3 - Eagles - should have loss and did
week 4,17- Saints -a split as expected
Week 6 - Lions - should have loss and did
week 7,14 - Falcons - a split as expected
Week 8 - Bills - should have loss and did
Week 9 - Houston - toss up game and loss
week 10 - Titans - should have won and did
week 11 - SF - lol
week 12 - Indy - toss up game and loss
week 13, 18 - CAR (x2) should have won and did
week 15 - @GB - a toss up at the time, could argued loss
week 16 - JAX - a toss up at the time, could have argued loss
so really, i don't think there was one game we loss that we really were expected to win. A few toss up games of course but no head scratchers where as we actually won some tough games - Minny, road games against ATL/NO, Green Bay and Jacksonville.
fast forward to current, This team needs to be at least 2-2 through the first 4 games but would be disappointing if the 2 losses were against should be wins WAS/DEN but if we were able to split the DET/PHI games would have hoped for a 3-1 start.
following our first 4 games is a 6 game gauntlet - 3 division games, Baltimore, KC, and SF- honestly looking at 2-4 stretch there AT BEST so 3-1 has us at .500 and fighting chance for playoffs.
i don't think there was one game we loss that we really were expected to win
in the preseason last year do you look at that Jax game as win? That would be apples to apples.
Either wya though, the difference (if any) might be expectations? Think of it this way. We are supposed to be a playoff team again. Signed almost everyone back and got new players. Last year with LOW expectations we started with an UPSET win. Woohoo!
This year with higher expectations . . we lose to Washington . .. . and then the Lions.We scrape by against the b roncos and then lose a close one to Eagles. We are 1-3
Its not hard to see how a season can go off rails quickly, right? Everything in NFL is tight and often momentum driven.
Not saying it WILL happen, just laying out the negative scenario
Okay, I’ll finally bite. It’s hard to predict a losing season for your favorite team of all. But in part due to our schedule/matchups and slight upcoming defensive downfall, I will go with 7 and 10. Our division is better than last year and we will have 3 or 4 non-division games that we will be huge dogs in. I feel we go as far as our offense can take us this year, and that’s not very far, because they aren’t a top 10 offense. I could see us looking really good in week 1 and trying to stretch that momentum out. But it Might be a long season.
Okay, I’ll finally bite. It’s hard to predict a losing season for your favorite team of all. But in part due to our schedule/matchups and slight upcoming defensive downfall, I will go with 7 and 10. Our division is better than last year and we will have 3 or 4 non-division games that we will be huge dogs in. I feel we go as far as our offense can take us this year, and that’s not very far, because they aren’t a top 10 offense. I could see us looking really good in week 1 and trying to stretch that momentum out. But it Might be a long season.
whatever happens -- and I hope its a Super Bowl win - it will be a very interesting season because there are so many open questions, from the HC to the QB to the pass rush, to simple regression to the mean . . . to, on the positive side, a promising running game and a potentially good/great offense and a revamped (reunited) defensive backfield.
It part of what makes the NFL great, the relative parity and so much having to go right, even for a good team, to run the table.
I have read opinion pieces by "soothsayers" claiming that the Bucs will win their division.
I have also read where others pick Atlanta to win the NFCS.
I have also seen where the Saints are going to take the division.
The only thing that these pundits agree on is that Carolina doesn't stand a chance to win the NFCS.
Put your money on Carolina!
How many straight years was there a different winner in the nfc south?
seems like a decade plus.
now we going for a 4peat?
That shit cray.
It's difficult to predict because you never know how Baker is going to play from year to year. I believe Bucs fans are going to be pleased with a very much improved running game. I'm going to be optimistic and hope Baker's play is as good as last year and predict a 10-7 record with a division crown and a seat at the NFC Championship.
This pretty much sums it up. Baker, who I happen to like, has never (not all his fault) put together good back to back seasons. So if we get the same or even an improved Baker, this team wins 10 games. If Baker takes a step back, this team could be in big trouble.
I say with an improved running game, an OC Baker is probably more comfortable with, that we see another solid year from Baker and the Bucs get to 10 wins.
So if we get the same or even an improved Baker, this team wins 10 games. If Baker takes a step back, this team could be in big trouble.
exactly
and I agree with you and Kermit that we should have a better running game and that should help
In all the talk about Mayfield not bein consistent every year, does anyone here actually know what happened in 2019~? I doubt it....
2020 speaks for itself as does being on an 11-5 run up until he was injured in 21
You all see what's been media driven and know nothing about his timeline on when he went to Carolina...like never having a training camp because th browns were 'punishing' him and ate most of his contract anyway on top of what they've wasted on Watson who initially turned down the Browns and after Mayfiled said he wanted traded, Haslam wanted to meet with him in Texas to reconcile and when he told him to pound sand is when Haslam went 230 mil guaranteed, 3 $1's and 4 other picks in the dumbest f****G trade ever
Failing in Carolina was not failing .....in a shit organization with a horrible lame duck HC
The Rams had Stafford so that argument is asinine....
Maybe some should go to youtube and watch his head to head vs Mahomes
From what I gather this offseason, this is the Mayfield you'll get which is no more of a reach than predicting he'll regress
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFLkXbBARLA&t=1354s
PR reports over under is 7.5 for Bucs wins, which would be the worst season since 2019 when they went 7-9.
BetMGM:
LEAN Buccaneers Under 7.5 Wins (+120)
Tampa managed to stave off a disaster of an offseason, but this play is purely based on the price.
I can’t think of many reasons to fade this Tampa team, but Dave Canales’s departure could prove an arduous one to overcome.
It’s tough to make that determination on a one-season sample size. However, it’s worth noting Tampa ranked 20th in offensive EPA per play under Byron Leftwich.
Last year in 2023, under Canales, Tampa jumped to 12th in offensive EPA per play, according to rbsdm.com.
To replace the departing Canales, the Bucs opted for Liam Coen, who last coordinated the Rams offense in 2022.
That unit ranked 29th in offensive EPA per play that year, albeit while dealing with myriad injuries.
Additionally, I can’t help but wonder if two departures on defense could lead to some regression.
Both Shaq Barrett and Devin White moved on from Tampa, along with corner Carlton Davis.
Virtually all of Tampa’s wins last season came as a function of a strong defense. Of their nine wins, six came while allowing 17 or fewer points.
In the event their defense doesn’t sustain levels from 2023 – they ranked 17th in defensive EPA per play – it’s easy to see a scenario where Tampa finishes under this number.
In an NFC South where I expect improvement from both Atlanta and Carolina, it’s the under or nothing for me. However, given Tampa has the 11th-easiest schedule this year, I’ll pass.
I just think this logic comes from an outsider who doesn't really know the Bucs. Is Coen going to be worse than Canales? Nah, I think most of us can see it's an improvement. And we can see that the O-line will be better with Barton leading the way. Barrett and White were not anything to write home about last year, which is why they aren't here this year. If this is the kind of information that is resulting in the Bucs having a 7.5 O/U then I'd say it's a pretty safe bet to take the over.
Many believe the narrative, and the one year prove it deal didn’t do much to “prove” anything, because that crowd was convinced going after a hot new QB in the draft laws the way forward. They don’t believe Mayfield is anything more than a bridge, therefore it just prolongs the inevitable.
They either don’t realize that we would have to blow up the old team, strip away years worth of investing, and rebuild. Our history shows that can take a long long time, and doesn’t always work out (ie, the Fameous Winston & resultant “Lost Decade” era) - or they don’t care, that we’ll magically make it work this time.
Others, like me, believe you take the QB you can get and build pieces around that known commodity. It has a higher success rate. It also allows us to capitalize on other pieces already place.
If you have an organization behind you, a strong culture, and resources, you have a higher chance of success than trying to find the next Mahomes…but that mindset comes out of years of seeing the same pattern of losing. Some haven’t lost long enough to have gained that perspective. Some don’t need any more practice.
It will take some time, and success, to make them believers. We’re all along for the ride, everyone’s sacred cows eventually get slaughtered.
I think Mayfield’s history suggests that, while he has some security, he still has something to prove to the naysayers. This leads me to think Mayfield will have a breakout season, but at this point, I can’t prove it.
I suspect everyone is in two camps: one hopes Mayfield has been surrounded by a lot of talent up front, and a killer defense - and the other wants to see him fail.
Some watch NASCAR to see who wins, some watch for the spectacular crashes.
I’m comfortable with that, either way, someone will get to say “told ya”, and the other will get to eat crow.
It’s a cycle.
Can’t wait for the next phase.
