Everyone knows our 2nd quarter offense in 2017 was abysmal. A lot went into that. Honestly, the number 2 was generally bad for us last year. Jameis's play on 1st down was elite. his play on 3rd down was slightly above average. His play on 2nd down was abysmal at sub 80 Passer Rating. Interestingly enough, a lot of Jaemis's struggles on 2nd down wasn't due to a down and distance issue. He actually struggled on 2nd and mid after a productive 1st down play. His Interception Rate on 2nd and 3/4/5 was an astonishing 8.7 %. That is an EIGHT, followed by a PERIOD, followed by a SEVEN. So almost 9 out of 100 Passing Attempts immediately following a successful 1st down play would have been an Interception. That is crazy. For perspective, Jameis's actual Interception Rate was 2.3 % for 2017. Even his Adjusted Interception Rate (including passes that should have been picked off) would have only been 4.0 %!
Honestly, that is one of the crazier statistics I've ever come across. You're set up to win on 2nd and 3/4/5. That statistic bears out the reality of Jameis's play last year; when things were in his favor, he got greedy rather than taking what the defense gave him. His play in the preseason was absolutely impeccable in every way (and his statistics don't even reflect just how excellent he was as plenty of it is intangibles and some numbers were taken off the board due to bad officiating). I'm confident that we won't see that statistic manifest in 2018!
Anyway, I digress. I just came across that stat and I wanted to pass it along. So, what I'm going to do right quick is just take a look at 2nd Quarter, 1st down personnel groupings in the 2018 Preseason games. This will give us some insight into how Monken looks at this aspect of playcalling vs how DK does (in case he retains the helm of playcaller going into the Regular Season). I must stress the SOME insight, because (again) no one is game-planning here. Game-planning will impact personnel grouping frequency.
In 2018, the Bucs deployed 11 personnel 75 % of the time and 12 personnel the other 25 % of the time on 1st and 10 in the 2nd quarter. Lets see what Monken did in PS1-4.
PS1
12
12
22 (Red Zone Tight)
21
12
11
11
11
11 (2 Minute)
11
10 1st downs
11 * 5
12 * 3
21 * 1
22 * 1
PS2
21
21
11 (1st and 20, despite the 11, its Shotgun Empty...which is typical for this formation)
21
21
11
11 (2 Minute)
11
11
11
11
11 1st downs
11 * 7
21 * 4
PS3
21
12
11
12
11
11 (2 Minute)
11
11
11 (1st and 20 after that utterly ridiculous OPI call on OJ)
9 1st downs
11 * 6
12 * 2
21 * 1
PS4
11
11
21
11
11
20 (Red Zone Tight. First deployment of this personnel grouping)
21
11
10 (First deployment of this personnel grouping)
10
11
11 (One Minute)
11
11
14 1st downs
10 * 2
11 * 9
20 * 1
21 * 2
PRESEASON TOTALS
44 1st downs
10 @ 4.6 %
11 @ 61.4 %
12 @ 11.4 %
20 @ 2.3 %
21 @ 18.2 %
22 @ 2.3 %
++++++++++++++++
Alright. Conclusions and thoughts.
- More diversification.
- Still heavily weighted toward 11 personnel.
- Don't expect that 12 personnel % to come even close to carrying over to the regular season. Here we see almost 30 % deployment of 12 + 21. During the regular season that would primarily be OJ as the h-back/move TE, so statically the bulk of those would qualify as 12 personnel despite the 2 RB look.
- A smattering of alternative groupings (9.2 % w/ 10 + 20 + 22).
