THREE SCENARIOS IMPACTING BUCS DRAFTING A QB:
A) Bucs win the Superbowl. Licht and Arians team up for pick 32. Bowles will get a HC job, so a new DC comes in with little clout. Past 32 pick QBs are Lamar Jackson, Teddy Bridgewater, Patrick Ramsey and Drew Brees. In this scenario its very possible the Bucs take a QB because of past success and the 5th year option for 1st rounders. The obvious limiting factor here is whether miracle of miracles say your prayers you get that guy you like dropping all the way down here.
PROBABILITY OF DRAFTING A QB: FAIR 30%.
B) The Bucs make the playoffs. No excuses with the extra playoff spot this year. Licht and Arians, possibly Bowles, team up for a pick in the 20s (19-31). Past 20s picks include Jordan Love, Johnny Manziel, Paxton Lynch, Brandon Weeden, Tim Tebow, Brady Quinn, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell, JP Losman. Rex Grossman. Teams don't often take a QB in the 20s, 5% of the time. The whole league takes one every two years in total, and you can see why. You have 8 busts out of 9 with one pending. Big needs coming on the D-line. Take a hint from the past and dont do it!
PROBABILITY OF DRAFTING A QB: LOW. 5%.
C) The Bucs miss the playoffs. Again, no excuses with the extra playoff spot. THere won't be a total meltdown, so we'd be picking in the teens (10 to 18). Somebody's head has to roll and the obvious head rolling is Licht. I just don't see why Arians gets fired. The Brady experiment obvously didn't work out and most probably its an injury. Both Brady and Arians are under contract so take another shot and hope Brady can hold up, but you need a better backup plan. You have a new GM not beholden to Arians who will want to make his mark with a new QB. Past QBs drafted 8 to 18 Dwayne Haskins, Josh Rosen, Patrick Mahomes, DeShawn Watson, EJ Manuel, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Josh Freeman, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler. I think some of the busts here are teams reaching too much when there's a thin QB crop. It shouldn't be a thin crop next year, so its a "go" for a QB.
PROBABILITY OF DRAFTING A QB: HIGH 50%
