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3 Weeks - What do we think of Arians?

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 tog
(@tog)
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What are everyone's positives and negatives on Arians now that we've seen 3 weeks of play?

While Arians will continue to mold this teams there are some trends and behaviors we may be able to pull out.

POSITIVES
* The Bucs are generally competent in a way they haven't been since Gruden. This is the best coaching staff since then.

* Beyond that, Arians clearly has the respect of the players (and the media).

* While the D (aka secondary) stunk against a rookie QB and the Giants, the D is seriously improved. The Bucs D is going to have some games like this - Bowles isn't perfect and the Bucs D lacks talent in the back end. It's run defense is elite. Secondary is weak, but what do you expect with VH3/Davis/Edwards/Whitehead/Stewart. There's not a single player with a track record or success in the secondary.

* There are no gaping holes like in past years. Every unit and position group has played well at times.

* The offense's YAC is significantly up (Winston is 5th). 2018 Winston was dead last among qualifying QBs.

* While I'm critical of elements of Arians game management, he is also doing basic things competent coaches do like go for points with 40 seconds to close out the half. Koetter would take a knee there which was capitulating.

* While the talent on the OL is bad, the OL has held up in pass blocking and greatly improved in rushing. Arians, like Koetter, has struggled with his OL but so far the OL has been good enough. It's statistics are hurt by Winston holding the ball a long time.

NEGATIVES
* Most old coaches not named Belichick often fail to take advantage of analytics and game management. They go by their "gut" and the way they were taught and end up making sub-optimal decisions that hurt their teams. I believe Andy Reid has a SB if he was an average game manager. Anyways, Arians has repeatedly made mistakes at the end of games - 2 timeouts, the delay of game, etc.

* For all Arians' hyping of Winston, him and Leftwich are clearly coddling him. Then why come to the Bucs? Well, the only place with an opportunity. ie. Arians hasn't changed Winston. He's simply taking the ball out of his hands at times. And Winston is still T-3rd in INTs, 7th in INT%,

* Special Teams going back to Arians time in Arizona is still a major problem.

* Wasn't this supposed to be a playoff roster? That's what SR keeps saying. What stupid homerism. Does that mean Arians can't win against a rookie-led Giants minus Barkley with a playoff roster?

* The Bucs are still a rebuilding team with massive ????s.

* Bucs run far too much on 1st down. Results in longer 3rd downs. Analytics 101 includes passing more frequently on 1st.

* The Bucs O is slightly below average in almost every single offensive statistics. Passing, rushing, efficiency, scoring, etc. You name the stat, the Bucs probably rank 16-20th. They're obviously bad with turnovers.

* At least as of now, Arians/Bowles haven't fixed passing defense. Unsurprisingly, while the Bucs are elite in run defense teams are targeting them (and having success) through the air.

* While Arians says he's "No Risk It, No Biscuit" the NFL has been changing even as he left. Riverboat Ron is now below-average in aggressiveness - not because he's less aggressive but because the NFL itself is more. Arians attitude isn't nearly as ahead-of-the-curve as it was in 2014.

 
Posted : Sep. 23, 2019 8:03 am
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