In lue of the ongoing qb war, I thought it might be a nice change of pace pointing some fingers at some well known analysts, and some of the lesser known options for helping place our picksJust how good are these analysts we see on TV, twitter, etc, and how often are they actually correct? I would also like to throw in what the layperson, armchair qbs/hc, and the blogging worlds do by a fair comparison. As I am typing this thread, I am learning, and hopefully you will too.Random notes:• In 2012, yahoo users were correct 65 percent of the time.• In that same same year, Joel beall from fox beat out La canfora narrowly by 2% (was right 68%).• In 2014, Chris carter lead all media groups with 178 correct picks. (Although another site counteracts, saying Seth Wickersham was more accurate at 69% and 65% the last two seasons. (Idrk)• Adam Schefter had the worst prediction totals of the 12 & 13 seasons.• Keyshawn johnson was the worst last year.• In the last three seasons, no analyst went over 70%.• In the 11-12 season, Accuscore and Pick'em leveled off at 68%, respectively (actually beating the pros, who leveled off at 64%).• The considered average is around 64 percent.Initial thoughts:As I am looking up these stats and titbits of information, I am constantly reminded that there isn't much room for error. There isn't a world of difference between 60 percent and 69.9 percent. The pros are very knowledgeable, and should be looked act as information gathered, rather than the belief that they are better than anyone else at seeing the future.Granted, I would very much like to believe that their educated guesses are better than mine, yours, or everyone else's. The fact is, they aren't as accurate as you would expect. Mort has been a flipflop almost every other year, with some years going very well for him, and the next, not so good. Jaws is always a borderline constant average, the national average.Now, anything over 50% is all good for the layman, however, these are so called experts, and people who literally have a stake in the game. They almost always have to be over 60%. Otherwise, they can't be respected enough to do the job, or get anyone to listen to them. They want to get their picks right moreso than the guy who is just doing it for fun, or for an extra few bucks at the end of the week. They make millions comfortably, so you better believe they want to be right always and continue that gold-pouring trend.Who is correct more often..the people, or the pros?Looking at the statistics, it seems like there is something weird that goes on yearly, especially with large crowds of people. Not to go off-topic, but guessing anything statistically is a possibility. In a TED talks program Lior Zoref brings a live bull on stage and asks, "what's the weight?" Guesses ranged from 8000lbs to 300 (out of 500 people).The actual average guess was only three lbs off the real weight (1795lbs). Zoref says this sort of thing happens all the time in large groups. So, maybe looking in between what the pros and people guess, could impact your game predictions for the better? We all want to be above 70%, because then (if we have placed bets), we are much more likely to see a payout. The reality is that it is all a guess. However, some games are traps, and we all will fall for them (qb out w/o saying pregame, injuries in-game, systems mixing against each other, player head to head match ups, and home field advantages (which still does actually help btw). Only in MLS and NBA are the home field advantages higher(from 1966, until now, calculated results are 57% in favor of the home team). So that's another tidbit of info that might help knowing when placing your picks, or while listening to the analysts, if you aren't so sure of which team to pick. This part has actually helped me before, so I know it helps.So, either side of the coin isn't too bad, depending on your competitions competency.Final thoughts:Regardless of how they are shown, most analysts aren't any more accurate than a room full of people. They have knowledge that we can learn from, a idea of what may transpire, but for the most part we are all guessing. Their guesses are just supposed to be more informed than ours. If you want to get a comfortable 64% and up for the season, copy and paste everything from LA canfora, Seth Wickersham, or carter. These guys seem to know a little more than the rest. Also, I don't think I'll dismiss group predictions as much as I used to after I looked over some of these sites. Those large groups aren't as off as you might believe, and even if they might be all over the place with their predictions, you can possibly average it out and get the correct answer as well.Some of the names you might want to watch out for, or even question, is Mort, keyshawn, and (jmo) kiper. I like Mort, but he's up and down yearly. Keyshawn is just not that good, and kiper (IMO) is trying his darnedest to impersonate an older (and dumber) looking Jim Rome, rather than get the picks right.None of these guys can be counted on directly, but they can all definately help you make a more informed decision. For the most part, they are normally slightly ahead of the crowds, give or take 4%.
