With the release of Aguayo, there really didn't need to be any more discussion on why it was such a stupid pick. Not because Aguayo was a bad kicker, but for a host of other reasons like draft value, college success not correlating with NFL success, and opportunity cost. On TOP of this, Aguyao sucked.
Unfortunately, there's some silliness still coming out, particularly from Pewter Report ( https://www.pewterreport.com/despite-aguayo-mistake-bucs-wise-keep-following-licht/). Its one things to disagree, its another to publish foolishness.
To get this out of the way: Aguayo is not the worst pick in Bucs history. Licht's legacy will not be defined by Aguayo - it will be defined by Winston. BUT:
1) Dumb Comment #1: "In a league in which games are often decided by a field goal or less, finding a reliable kicker in the clutch is almost as important as finding a franchise quarterback."
I can pull up the data, but very few games are decided by a field goal or less. Of those that are, the difference between a league average and "elite" kicker is very small. As an example, I looked over Connor Barth's career and in his 7 year career he contributed to a loss via missing a field goal around 2x.
Nick Folk is 33rd all time (22nd among currently active kickers) in FG%. Dan Carpenter is 16th all time.
There is no comparison between a franchise quarterback and a kicker. Its not even close.
2) Dumb Comment #2: "It was a well-intentioned gamble that turned out to be an awful draft pick."
It was NEVER a "well-intentioned gamble". Do I (and others here) need to break down why it was ALWAYS an awful pick? It had no chance of it being a good kick, short of Aguayo being a Hall of Fame-level kicker.
First, Aguayo wasn't a great prospect even though many on here (including PR) crowed about he was the most accurate kicker in college history. He actually wasn't (he was 3rd). He struggled at range and his accuracy declined as his career went on. He still was an excellent kicking prospect - but he wasn't perfect.
Second, kickers fail out just like every other position. Fans often think that RBs (and kickers) are can't miss prospects when drafted high. They have a high flame out rate. Just look at the kickers drafted: http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?position=SPECIALISTS&type=position
Third, there's draft value and opportunity cost. With the exception of Gostowski (4th round) all the best kickers are UDFAs. The Bucs last two best kickers (Bryant and Barth) were undrafted. Taking a position that has value at UDFA (and at best in the 6th/7th) and picking in the 2nd is inexcusable. And that's even if Aguayo becomes an above average kicker.
There are many more reasons, I'll stop here.
3) Dumb Comment #3: "In a league where many GMs care more about their egos and their job security above all else, Licht deserves tremendous credit for promptly cutting Aguayo, who looked good in training camp, but missed an extra point in the first half and a 47-yard field goal in the waning minutes of the team’s 23-12 loss at Cincinnati."
One of Licht's strengths is unquestionably his willingness and humility to quickly move on from players.
This isn't one of those situations. There is no world, with any GM, where you can hold onto a kicker who was last in the league in field goals and shows no improvement. Its literally impossible. Once he missed those two kicks, Aguayo was gone from this team no matter who the GM was. Its like praising a GM for cutting a QB who completes 35% of his passes.
4) Dumb Comment #4: "The failed Aguayo pick didn’t ruin the Bucs’ 2016 draft class"
This is a straw man. No one is saying (or thinking this). But it first shows that Licht (again) did a bad job evaluating the talent level of this team. The Bucs were not a playoff team and struggled with depth and talent at many positions. The difference for the Bucs in 2016 was not between a league average kicker and elite kicker (ironically, it was between a league average kicker and the worst kicker in the NFL).
It's also a silly way to evaluate the draft. Look at this way: what if this happened in 2017? So instead of Justin Evans and Godwin the Bucs have Aguayo. That would be a disaster. We have no idea who the Bucs would have picked (it is very unlikely it would be the Chief's players - two very different teams). But it would have been two players competing on the team right now (and maybe another Godwin).
5) Dumb Comment #5: "It’s not like Aguayo was worthless in a Tampa Bay uniform. He certainly missed his kicks, but he did make the game-winning kick at Carolina and was 4-of-4 on his field goals in the Bucs’ 19-17 win at Kansas City. Take away those two victories and Tampa Bay is 7-9 in 2016."
I've already covered this, but you just need to compare Aguayo to even a league average kicker (including ones available off the street in 2016 and 2017). Replacing Aguayo with ANY OTHER KICKER in the NFL in 2016 and the Bucs perform better. Or even just compare him to Connor Barth.
Aguayo was WORSE than worthless. He was an albatross that literally cost this team points and forced Koetter to make sub-optimal game decisions because he couldn't trust his kicker.
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I could go one. This is too long as is. I'll repeat: Licht will not be defined by the Aguayo pick. It is not the worst pick in Buccaneers history (it might be the most obviously stupid). It wasn't a pick that ended the world.
But that being said, let's not pretend that it was bone-headed and costly on numerous levels. It cost points, potentially wins, potentially the playoffs, and player talent. The Bucs are lucky that Aguayo's league-leading field goal misses didn't directly contribute to more losses.
