Pretty sure no one else will give a crap about this but @Tog . Further, I'm pretty sure its a moot point at this point (it appears the Koetter regime is exiting stage left). But here is my analysis of each of the Screen plays for "predictability" signal. Again, I want to note that Bubble Screens are typically always going to look like their on the razor's edge because you're going to have a lot of defenders bunched in a small area and the margin of error for execution for the play-side OT and the blocking eligible is extremely narrow. If its executed well though, it should generate a few yards with the possibility of becoming an explosive.
1st up:
3RD & 5 AT TB 23 |12:40
(12:40) (Shotgun) J.Winston pass short right to C.Sims III to TB 24 for 1 yard (D.Jones).
WHAT HAPPENED: We're in Shotgun Spread, Trips Right w/ Simms on boundary. They're in Tight Man on the inside receivers and well Off Man on Simms. The Dime LB is free and is playing shallow Zone where his job is to recognize and bracket Crossing routes/Rubs and you've got a deep middle Safety (this is a pretty typical 3rd and mid defense). They're basically in the perfect defense for this Screen.
Brate (Tight) is inside release and pushing his man up the field. Hump (Slot) is outside release, pushing his man up the field and also providing Rub for the Off Man on Simms. It works and the angle of pursuit by the CB on Simms is crushed. This would have been a 1st down and big yardage if the Dime LB was blitzing. But he wasn't. As soon as Jameis gets the snap and turns to Simms, the Dime LB is looking for a cross from any of the 3 Trip eligibles. He's all over Simms the moment he catches the ball.
Now during live play, this could look like the defense sniffed out the play call...but it isn't. The other three main players were completely taken out of the play. The free shallow zone LB just did his job. It was a good defensive call on 3rd and short and just solid LB play.
