There's been a lot of buzz that the Bucs would take Barkley at #7 if he's there.
That's Aguayo-level stupid.
Let's go through the (objective) reasons why. Note: I can't include links because of this forum, if anyone has an idea let me know and I'll add all the a data I reference.
*RBs have the highest bust-rate of all positions
Looking at RBs who started half their careers (as a metric for whether they were a good pick), RBs had the highest bust rate across ALL positions.
Very, very, very few RBs are worth being 1st round picks (never mind high first round picks). List of 2000-2014 1st round picks:
If you're not depressed by how bad almost all those 1st round RBs are, I don't know what to tell you.
*RBs have the shortest NFL careers
Shortest careers:
Their ability also declines the fastest. Example:
Put another way, they start a sharp decline at age 27:
*Almost all teams use RBBC.
From 2005-2014 of 207 RBs drafted, only 33 started for half their careers. In the study, this was the lowest number among all positions.
As of 2015, RBBCs were used at a higher rate (continuing a trend) than at any other time in NFL history:
*1st round RBs are bad value
This fits into the general philosophy of drafting RBs high being horrible draft value. What are the most expensive contracts in the NFL? QBs, protecting the QB (LT), rushing the QB (edge), and then catching/stopping the pass (WR/CB).
In terms of contract value the most expensive RB contract in the NFL (Freeman) is the 130th. Here:
But lets look at guaranteed money, which is a more realistic reflection of what a contract is worth. The largest number of guaranteed money in a contract is Fournette (#78) followed by Elliott (#101).
What does this tell us? Teams are neither paying nor guaranteeing the contracts of veteran RBs because the second contract of RBs is so devalued.
*The veteran RB market craters
This fits with the point above. Outside of Leveon Bell (a market to himself), who has the #47 highest "average" contract value, no RB is anywhere close to the top. Freeman is next at #179, making only $8.25 mill/year. Mckinnon's "big" contract pays him an average value at the level of Mike Pouncey, Mario Addison and Eric Ebron (#206).
Because the position has become so devalued, teams aren't willing to put in many guarantees to these veteran RBs.
*1st round RBs don't represent cap savings
Building a successful team requires you get good value for your picks so you can pay other players. Having a rookie contract QB is a huge advantage because you can save $20+ million on the cap. Its no accident that almost all recent Super Bowl teams have 1st contract QBs or veteran QBs with below-market contracts (eg. Brady).
This applies to other "expensive" positions like OT, DE, and CB. Jalen Ramsey will average $5.8 million across his 4 year deal. Given that he would paid as the no. 1 corner in the NFL if on the free market, that represents (roughly) $40+ million of cap savings over his contract. This does not even represent the savings from the 5th year option either.
For example, Evans was the #52 highest paid (average contract) WR in the NFL in 2017 at $3.6 million. He is now the 2nd highest paid at an average of $16.5 million. That's over $12 million the Bucs saved on the cap each year in 2016 and 2017.
In contrast, two of the top 10 RB contracts are rookie contracts. That's ridiculous compared to all other positions where successful rookies represent real savings, not HIGHER cap hits.
*Running success is far more determined by OL than RB
An effective offensive line has far more to do with rushing success than the RB. And a high-quality OL also has the added benefit of improving pass protection. I think everyone knows this.
But what about Elliott/Fournette/etc? :
*Rushing is strategically devalued
Yes, having an effective rushing attack helps your team because it varies your offensive attack and is particularly effective at the goalline and in 3rd and short. An effective pass-catching RB can also add another dimension to the offense.
But rushing success does not improve QB/pass play:
You win because you pass, not because you rush:
Establishing the run is a myth:
Rushing does not appear to be necessary for play action passing:
I'll note that we saw an example of this in Jags vs. Patriots when the Jags dialled up 3 play-action passes in a row.
*Barkley isn't a "generational talent".
And just to make a Barkley specific argument, as good as he is he's not "generational". That term gets thrown around far, far too much for every draft. To be generational, a player needs to be the best in the last 20-25 years. At least the last 15.
Here is what a generational talent looks like: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jmjv39YHyLI
------------
No matter what they say, teams actions scream that they value RBs very low. They draft them lower, they pay them less, they see far smaller second contracts. In fact, they are paid the least, on average, of every position in the NFL (2nd is TE).
If the Bucs draft an RB in the 1st, they'll have spent their last two 1st round picks on the two lowest-paid positions in the NFL.
By spending a top 10 pick on Barkley the Bucs would be getting a player who will be paid at the top 10 of his position as a rookie, have the highest chance of busting, decline at 27, and have little trade value.
The Aguayo pick was terrible from Day 1 because it was horrible, horrible value. Given that the #7 pick is worth ~4.8x the Aguayo pick, picking Barkley really is that stupid.
