Baker $40m?!?!?!
 
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Baker $40m?!?!?!

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Avatar Of Blayton Cigsby
(@bucsbits)
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Funny when stuff gets reported that flies in the face of some of the criticism here last season

 

"Part of the reason why the running game faltered was the Bucs ran into too many bad looks. Opposing defenses loaded the box in obvious run situations, such as first down, and Canales stubbornly ran into those looks too often for no gain or perhaps a yard or two.

Mayfield wasn’t granted the authority to change the play at the line often. That wasn’t really built into Canales’ offense . . "

 
Posted : Mar. 15, 2024 4:00 pm
Avatar Of Blayton Cigsby
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or this

 

"Canales, who was last year’s play-caller, brought in a version of Seattle’s offense, which relies on more 12 personnel, which is one (1) running back and two (2) tight ends – and two receivers as a result. Coen is importing a version of a Los Angeles Rams system, which features more 11 personnel, which is one (1) running back and one (1) tight end – and three receivers as a result.

The carryover between the systems is the scheme, the concepts and some of the terminology. The bridge between the two systems is former Seahawks offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, who spent time with Sean McVay and the Rams and brought that system to Seattle.

Waldron incorporated more two-tight end sets (12 personnel) at the direction of Pete Carroll, who loves a strong running game."

 
Posted : Mar. 15, 2024 4:03 pm
Avatar Of Ramonb
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Uhm...who here still cares about the "past."  No way to change that.  Lets see how this season unfolds.  He's got a better supporting cast-teammates, coaching, and Administrative(?) support.  I think his best "statistical years" are infront of him, not behind.  Before we "slay him" with past stats, lets let him suit up and play this year out.  Also keep in mind, we have a BRAND new OC.  Sure he has hx with Ballerz, but it was in a backup role capacity.  A nice "head start" but its not any more than that, A head start on the "learning curve," so to speak.  Im fairly sure, he is going to have his best statistical year, this coming year.  A bit more familiar with the WR's, RB's, Oline, and a system that he has at least some familiarity with.  Yeah, just give the guy a chance.  Just my 2c

This post was modified 1 year ago by Ramonb
 
Posted : Mar. 16, 2024 3:12 pm
Avatar Of Trask Force
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Posted by: @bucsbits

or this

 

"Canales, who was last year’s play-caller, brought in a version of Seattle’s offense, which relies on more 12 personnel, which is one (1) running back and two (2) tight ends – and two receivers as a result. Coen is importing a version of a Los Angeles Rams system, which features more 11 personnel, which is one (1) running back and one (1) tight end – and three receivers as a result.

The carryover between the systems is the scheme, the concepts and some of the terminology. The bridge between the two systems is former Seahawks offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, who spent time with Sean McVay and the Rams and brought that system to Seattle.

Waldron incorporated more two-tight end sets (12 personnel) at the direction of Pete Carroll, who loves a strong running game."

Good info, but regardless of this I think the head man still prefers the balanced, complementary style, so I suspect that's where they'll end up.  That would mean a strong running game.  And as was mentioned by SR the Bucs may have improved the running game last year, but were still dead last in the league.  Last in rushing yards.  Last in yards per carry.  Much of that has to do with the offensive line, but don't be surprised if they add another RB.  The problem with Licht hasn't been drafting RBs, but drafting good RBs.  White was a hit, Vaughn was a total miss.  I think they'll look in the 4th or 5th round to pick up another back.  They'll probably draft a WR as well perhaps in the 3rd IMO.    

 

This post was modified 1 year ago by Trask Force
 
Posted : Mar. 16, 2024 6:14 pm
Avatar Of Feelindangerous06
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McVay shared in an interview back in 2022 that Coen was basically the architect of the Rams running game that year because Coen believes in a strong rushing attack as the foundation of an offense.  So at least philosophically/schematically TB should see a more balanced run/pass ratio in 2024.

 

Problem for TB is that your guards suck at run-blocking.  Rewatched the playoff game vs. PHI last night and both of them were getting pushed 3+ yards into the backfield on every other running play.  No amount of motion/misdirection is going to fix how bad your guards are at getting any push, imo.  

 

However, if he can fix that problem, the use of 11 personnel is going to get Godwin back to his slot role, which should help a ton with his efficiency/catch rate.

 
Posted : Mar. 16, 2024 9:19 pm
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Avatar Of Blayton Cigsby
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Posted by: @feelindangerous06

Coen believes in a strong rushing attack as the foundation of an offense. 

A number of people here disagree with that concept even though it plays out every Sunday, especially for teams with mid to average QB play.

 

will be interesting to see what happens this season

 
Posted : Mar. 18, 2024 10:23 am
Avatar Of Feelindangerous06
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Posted by: @bucsbits

Posted by: @feelindangerous06

Coen believes in a strong rushing attack as the foundation of an offense. 

A number of people here disagree with that concept even though it plays out every Sunday, especially for teams with mid to average QB play.

 

will be interesting to see what happens this season

 

 

Eh, I have to admit, it wasn't that many years ago that I had largely dismissed the running game in the modern NFL.  The Mahomes circus back in the 2018/2019/2020 seasons will do that to a person.

 

However, Kyle Shannahan/McVay/Doug Peterson (maybe include Sirianni?) and most recently Andy Reid have proven repeatedly that a strong running game is critical to winning in the playoffs.  The Chiefs don't win the SB, or even get to that SB, without Pacheco's efficiency and contributions on the ground in 2022.  That 2nd half was the Pacheco show more than it was the Mahomes show.  Likewise, a similar argument can be made for the Chiefs reaching/winning the SB in 2023.  The running game doesn't have to be the focus of the offense, but it has to be at least productive, imo.

 

 
Posted : Mar. 20, 2024 5:56 pm
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Avatar Of Blayton Cigsby
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Defenses adapt so offenses change. But, one simple and undeniable rule exists no matter the trend of the day and that is that it is tougher for a defense to defend pass and run than just pass or run. 

That reality means that anytime you can have a credible run threat you have a better chance to complete a pass … and same in reverse. The two concepts play off each other and that is particularly useful when your QB is NOT named Mahomes. 

 
Posted : Mar. 20, 2024 8:35 pm
Avatar Of Feelindangerous06
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Posted by: @bucsbits

Defenses adapt so offenses change. But, one simple and undeniable rule exists no matter the trend of the day and that is that it is tougher for a defense to defend pass and run than just pass or run. 

That reality means that anytime you can have a credible run threat you have a better chance to complete a pass … and same in reverse. The two concepts play off each other and that is particularly useful when your QB is NOT named Mahomes. 

 

Yep.

 

Using the Chiefs this past season as an example, for most of the season Andy/Nagy were running the offense as per usual with about a 65%/35% pass/run ratio, with mixed results.  And then the losing streak began when KC eventually went 2-of-6 in the late-middle part of the season. 

What got the Chiefs back on track was simply adjusting that ratio to nearly an even 55%/45%.  That happened somewhat gradually, going from 60%/40%, then by the time the playoffs began, Andy was passing just 55% of the time; a ratio he'd never approached in his 10 years in KC, outside of a single game here and there.

 

One of the things we've seen is that DCs can't run that two-high shell with three DLs (called the Fangio-6, I believe) if you can run the ball with any kind of decent efficiency.  They have to switch out of it, bring in additional DLs and LBs to try and stop the run, and consequently only allowing them to have 5 DBs on the field, which naturally opens up the passing game.

 

 
Posted : Mar. 20, 2024 9:34 pm
Avatar Of Blayton Cigsby
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Posted by: @feelindangerous06

One of the things we've seen is that DCs can't run that two-high shell with three DLs (called the Fangio-6, I believe) if you can run the ball with any kind of decent efficiency.  They have to switch out of it, bring in additional DLs and LBs to try and stop the run, and consequently only allowing them to have 5 DBs on the field, which naturally opens up the passing game.

This was the Bucs 2022 season. They basically abandoned the run, went 66/33 pass to run. 

didn’t go well. Evans had 6 TDs, 2 or 3 in late season game where the opposing defense went man against him lol

 
Posted : Mar. 21, 2024 9:45 am
White Tiger
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Offenses change with new OC’s, and while ours did, and made those ‘tweaks’ to the offense, the line play improved as the linemen adapted to it. When you add another OC, and upgrade the talent, you may have a similar tweaking/adapting period, but hopefully the new talent can adapt more quickly, and equally hopeful that a new RB will aid that adaptation.

I think one of the reasons we were effective last season is Canales system was different enough, that not a lot of NFC South opponents had experience/tape on it. Now that Coen will build off of that, we should have a faster integration to leverage the new talent, keeping defenses honest/off-balance. Still, that 2024 schedule is brutal, and our offense will likely have a few ‘adjustment’ period games, but the scheme & personnel should be better fits. 

It should be fun to watch!

 
Posted : Mar. 21, 2024 12:47 pm
Avatar Of Feelindangerous06
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interesting tidbits:

 

 

Baker Mayfield finished the 2023 season with the 4th highest Passer Rating among all playoff QBs, 106.3.  That makes him the highest rated QB (Passer Rating) in Bucs playoff history.

 

Mayfield also owns the 4th highest career playoff PR of all currently active NFL QBs, with 100.4 (minimum of 3 playoff games played).  Only Mahomes, Stafford and Purdy are ranked higher than him in that respect.  Aaron Rodgers is 5th (100.1).

 

His 6 TDs in these playoffs tie him with Mahomes for first place in 2023.

 

His longest pass (56yds) in the playoffs make him 2nd in the 2023 playoffs behind only Stroud.

 

His yards/gm of 343/gm make him 3rd in 2023.  For context, I invite people to check out both Burrow's and Lamar's playoff stats.

 

His yards/att during the playoffs of 8.9yds/att make him 2nd behind only Matthew Stafford (10.2).

 

 

 
Posted : Mar. 25, 2024 7:06 pm
White Tiger
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Posted by: @feelindangerous06

interesting tidbits:

 

 

Baker Mayfield finished the 2023 season with the 4th highest Passer Rating among all playoff QBs, 106.3.  That makes him the highest rated QB (Passer Rating) in Bucs playoff history.

 

Mayfield also owns the 4th highest career playoff PR of all currently active NFL QBs, with 100.4 (minimum of 3 playoff games played).  Only Mahomes, Stafford and Purdy are ranked higher than him in that respect.  Aaron Rodgers is 5th (100.1).

 

His 6 TDs in these playoffs tie him with Mahomes for first place in 2023.

 

His longest pass (56yds) in the playoffs make him 2nd in the 2023 playoffs behind only Stroud.

 

His yards/gm of 343/gm make him 3rd in 2023.  For context, I invite people to check out both Burrow's and Lamar's playoff stats.

 

His yards/att during the playoffs of 8.9yds/att make him 2nd behind only Matthew Stafford (10.2).

 

 

Interesting stuff, proves it wasn’t just a fluke that Mayfield was able to win as much with poor interior line play & one of the the worst run games in the NFL.

Hopefully they will be able to strengthen the interior o-line with a stud & improve the run game, so Baker doesn’t have as much pressure to create. That issue forced him to pick up first downs by squaring up against guys that eat QB’s.

I know his playing style puts him at risk at times, but if we can minimize pressure, keep the pocket from collapsing/plays breaking down, he will take fewer hits. 

 

 
Posted : Mar. 26, 2024 9:41 am
Avatar Of Feelindangerous06
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Posted by: @white-tiger

Posted by: @feelindangerous06

interesting tidbits:

 

 

Baker Mayfield finished the 2023 season with the 4th highest Passer Rating among all playoff QBs, 106.3.  That makes him the highest rated QB (Passer Rating) in Bucs playoff history.

 

Mayfield also owns the 4th highest career playoff PR of all currently active NFL QBs, with 100.4 (minimum of 3 playoff games played).  Only Mahomes, Stafford and Purdy are ranked higher than him in that respect.  Aaron Rodgers is 5th (100.1).

 

His 6 TDs in these playoffs tie him with Mahomes for first place in 2023.

 

His longest pass (56yds) in the playoffs make him 2nd in the 2023 playoffs behind only Stroud.

 

His yards/gm of 343/gm make him 3rd in 2023.  For context, I invite people to check out both Burrow's and Lamar's playoff stats.

 

His yards/att during the playoffs of 8.9yds/att make him 2nd behind only Matthew Stafford (10.2).

 

 

Interesting stuff, proves it wasn’t just a fluke that Mayfield was able to win as much with poor interior line play & one of the the worst run games in the NFL.

Hopefully they will be able to strengthen the interior o-line with a stud & improve the run game, so Baker doesn’t have as much pressure to create. That issue forced him to pick up first downs by squaring up against guys that eat QB’s.

I know his playing style puts him at risk at times, but if we can minimize pressure, keep the pocket from collapsing/plays breaking down, he will take fewer hits. 

 

 

Yeah, that would be the plan.  Though, Baker is Baker; he's sometimes going to square up against guys he shouldn't, lol.  But with better/more consistent protection, it won't happen nearly as much, imo.

 

What I thought was interesting (among other things), was those numbers suggest that he's closer to the top of the middle tier of QBs, or even in that top tier of currently active -10 to -11 QBs. I knew that he'd played fairly well in his two playoffs but didn't realize that he'd played that well.  But when I reviewed just those playoff games I realized that he could be sitting on a 3-1 or even a 4-0 record for those four games if not for a fumble by R. Higgins, a dropped TD by Evans or a collapsing defense or whatever.  In short, Baker wasn't the reason for those two losses; it was mostly a teammate or a coaching decision or a slumping defense (or combo of factors) that cost his team those two games.  But Baker played well enough to win all four of those playoff games.

 

Bottom line, Baker plays better in the playoffs than a lot of so-called top-tier QBs do.  And does so pretty consistently, regardless of whether he has a great run game or OL or receiving weapons.

 

 
Posted : Mar. 26, 2024 7:53 pm
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Posted by: @feelindangerous06

What I thought was interesting (among other things), was those numbers suggest that he's closer to the top of the middle tier of QBs, or even in that top tier of currently active -10 to -11 QBs.

Now, do his other 86 starts and tell us how he's in the Top 10 to #11 QB's.

He's a middle tier QB and hopefully he improves, and most importantly, shows some consistency. 

Fortunately, we re-upped him to a contract that gives us an out in 2 years if he doesn't. If he does, then great, we have our answer. 

 
Posted : Mar. 26, 2024 8:54 pm
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