I warned you about the Godwin deal with no injury clause. Most celebrated, sighed in relief when he was resigned. I'm about the only one who threw up the red flag. Now I'm throwing up another red flag - Baker's extension.
It's a foregone conclusion. Any hometown discount will be minimal because Licht doesn't want to go cheap on guys who mean a lot to the team and have been playing for under market value. Godwin got paid because he quietly accepted the tag. Baker will get paid because he's been proving it with his "prove it" contracts. That's how Licht operates. He's loyal. He's a good GM.
But there are times when perhaps this team would be better off to bench the beer drinking ACDC loving GM and call to the bullpen for the cold-blooded three-piece suit wearing GM. The GM who's paying for future performance. That's what we need just for this one thing.
A 3-year deal would be ideal, but Baker is going to get the market rate - a five-year deal for about $300 mil and probably almost all guaranteed. He'll be 32 when the extension kicks in and 37 when it ends. He'll be taking a big bite out of that cap and that's fine if he's performing as a top 10 QB that whole time. I can hope he will, but realistically the way he plays I think his best year is this year. Nowhere to go but down.
Baker won't learn how to play it safe and dump the ball ala Tom Brady. He's got moxie. He's going to moxie himself into more and more injuries. He plays hurt and when he does, he's not as good. Whether it's a hip or ankle or another body part it all affects the body part that matters - his arm.
Of the 90+ games from 2027 through 2031 how many do you think Baker will be at at least 90% healthy? 50%?
This extension could be, is likely to be a cap killer IMO because I don't think Baker will be healthy enough. I think his body will be breaking down over time.
There are options. There are QBs who have come off the scrap heap. Danny Jones. Sam Darnold. If you have good blocking it's amazing what can happen. Even Licht has pulled a QB off the scrap heap - Baker Mayfield.
Its a foregone conclusion. But I'll say it right now for the record - Don't do it! Go back to the scrap heap again. Draft a QB. Something. Just don't pay $300 mil guaranteed to Baker Mayfield.
There's options between 300m and what he currently makes
Top 10 QB’s are expensive.
Actually, a QB that fits your offense, produces, and can give you an option to win games (when healthy), playing within the system, or by extending plays on his own to win them, is also expensive. The fact that we’ve already gotten Baker on two under market contracts can be factored into the total.
Like good QB’s before him, he also knows he needs good pieces around him to be effective (skill positions), and seems he has shown to consider that as well.
but as I said last year when we were debating whether he was worth $40m - good QB’s are expensive. You’re going to pay them, or you’re going to lose, a lot.
