He needs to prove that 2024 is not the anomaly.
Yep.
every player has to prove it every year
Maybe its the word anomaly.
Mayfield threw for 4000 yards and 28 TDs against 10 interceptions with Canales as OC. That put him roughly in the Top 10 . . . again, with Canales as OC. Mayfield's production under Canales is basically Trevor Lawrence 2025 . . under COEN. Trevor Lawrence was a top 10 QB in 2025 . . with Coen.
If anything 2025 is the outlier for Mayfield and, I mean, he basically won some of those early games on his own lol
I'm not saying Baker is way better than Darnold. I think he is slightly better but both have a cool story.
I think Baker has the potential to be a top 10 QB but he needs the right scheme. As do all the QBs 7-17 ranked.
None of them are super stars.
I think Baker has the potential to be a top 10 QB but he needs the right scheme. As do all the QBs 7-17 ranked.
As do all QBs really. Very few who are going to just carry a team.
If Baker has a 2023 performance next year AND they have a run game and at least a middle of the road defense (big question) they are a playoff team, especially if the division remains fairly weak.
In between Brad Johnson and Tom Brady, I suffered years of watching really bad QB play. Jeff Garcia slightly may be the exception during that time. Baker is head and shoulders above all of the QBs between Brad Johnson and Tom Brady. I get holding off to extend, but my prediction is if that OL is mostly healthy and not down to third string guards, we will see the 2024 Baker who was better than Brad Johnson. The price tag is going to be high at that point. This team mostly lost games due to defense, Baker. Baker was the reason this team pulled victories when the defense crapped the bed. The problem is DC/HC not Baker.
the years between Gruden and Arians were just shit....but....by that notion, Todd Bowles is the friggin man, right?
Of course not, expectations need to be raised.
I agree that Baker can be the guy, he's shown it; but the fan base is not thinking clearly if they dont think Baker was one of the main reasons we were losing games 2nd half of last year
1. Terrible Defense
2. Terrible Coaching
3. Mediocre at best QB play
He needs to prove that 2024 is not the anomaly.
Yep.
every player has to prove it every year
Maybe its the word anomaly.
Mayfield threw for 4000 yards and 28 TDs against 10 interceptions with Canales as OC. That put him roughly in the Top 10 . . . again, with Canales as OC. Mayfield's production under Canales is basically Trevor Lawrence 2025 . . under COEN. Trevor Lawrence was a top 10 QB in 2025 . . with Coen.
If anything 2025 is the outlier for Mayfield and, I mean, he basically won some of those early games on his own lol
While Baker had top 10 numbers in 2023 (alot of injuries to QBs that year), i think the "complete package/intangible" aspect had him as a top 15 QB. That being said, i was a huge Baker bro then. Just imagine the progress we can have with this guy. Sign him. And we did!
Baker had elite numbers in 2024, probably top 5; but again, the complete package aspect had him as a top 10 QB.
He undoubtedly regressed in 2025...again you can blame injuries to him, his supporting cast, coaching, etc. No matter the excuse, he regressed from 2024 numbers and looked closer to 2023 numbers.
His 2018, 2020, 2023, and 2025 seasons look to be his norm; in between that, he's had some real shit years and then 2024 being Hall of Fame caliber.
You are smoking something really good to say that 2024 is not the outlier. Again, he can show in 2026 that "Hey, listen up mother fucker....i am that 2024 QB"
but right now, he ain't even fuckin close.
I think Baker has the potential to be a top 10 QB but he needs the right scheme. As do all the QBs 7-17 ranked.
As do all QBs really. Very few who are going to just carry a team.
If Baker has a 2023 performance next year AND they have a run game and at least a middle of the road defense (big question) they are a playoff team, especially if the division remains fairly weak.
i mean, shit, if playoff team is the barometer
we are a playoff team if one of these things happens
1 - ATL game - Instead of Baker throwing an INT, he completes a 7 yard pass, Chase nails a field goal; game is out of reach
or
2 - CAR game - Instead of Baker throwing game ending INT, he is a top caliber QB and leads the team to game winning touchdown
Fact of the matter is, we averaged just 20 points a game through our cream puff last 6 games of the year. What did our defense give up in the same time frame? 21 points?
Yes the Atlanta game was an abomination on the defensive side but make no mistake about it, the offense was just as putrid in that stretch
make no mistake about it, the offense was just as putrid in that stretch
It was . . . .. but not sure how that is all down to QB, especially to the point that the QB is the problem and 2024 was an anomaly? Was Mayfield to blame because the coaches decided to run 30 times? I think that is one of your example games? Did he control the play calling?
Your argument is sort of that Mayfield is to blame for not winning every game in the last second. No one does that and he won several early we should've lost.
And games are not really won and lost last second. Take the two games with the (ONLY) two plays you highlight. Yes, those were the big plays, but we lose those games for many other reasons that put us in the spot to have to execute in those plays.
I get it . He struggled too at the end, but I doubt he's in the top 5 or ten of problems for the Bucs heading into 2026. They dont need him to be Mahomes. They really only need him to be Baker 2023, as long as they get the other shit sorted out.
we are a playoff team if one of these things happens
1. get healthy and stay healthy
2. improve the defense
A. Better talent in the front 7
B. Better play calling/scheme
3. Better offense
A. short passing system
B. re-establish a run game
C. Mayfield play better (A+B should help)
I think right now there are too many variables as to a Mayfield extension at this moment....I highly doubt he is extended before the end of next season, and here's why.
1. How does he perform under Robinson and the Rams offensive style "reboot" ? If he bounces back after a regressed showing last year, and looks more like the QB he showed under Coen then I think that really increases his odds of being extended.
2. How does the overall team look? ( I say team because if the Offense lights it up, and the bottom further falls out of the defense leading to another < or = 8 win season then Bowles is likely gone.
3. Based on # 2. If the team underperforms yet again and Bowles is let go, then that throws everything into question...Who is the next coach and what tree do they come from ? If offense lights it up under Robinson, I think Glazers seeing the errors of their ways regarding Coen likely elevate Robinson to HC ( barring a trade for a massively successful HC ala the Gruden trade ). I think someone from the McVay tree likely improves Bakers chances, but if they go away from that style of offense then that HC will want to bring in and groom someone that better fits the mold that they're looking for.
4. Injury- Does Baker gut it out like he has the last few years, but this go around have a solid but injured year putting up good,but not great stats ?
All these things will ultimately decide Baker's future in Tampa. At current I could see JL giving baker a 3 year 120 mil deal, but if Baker breaks out under Robinson in a contract year I think that number ultimately Jumps to 4 years 220 million. I know some have suggested a 5 year deal. but by the time a 5 year deal comes to an end Baker will be 37, and what does a 37 year old Mayfield look like given his gritty style of play ? (likely a broken down Jeff Garcia). I think if Bowles does somehow improve and survives beyond next year he'll likely get till the end of his contract (unless he has another poor or disasterous season in 27 ). All of that said I think 4 years 210 is proabably about the sweet spot in that he gets the nice raise to 55 mil a year if he has a bounce back year, gives us a small "home town discount" given his previous stops, and keeps him locked up in his prime with the flexibility to walk away if need be due to declining play or potential future HC preference. Of course this could all become moot depending on # 3
I think Baker has the potential to be a top 10 QB but he needs the right scheme. As do all the QBs 7-17 ranked.
As do all QBs really. Very few who are going to just carry a team.
If Baker has a 2023 performance next year AND they have a run game and at least a middle of the road defense (big question) they are a playoff team, especially if the division remains fairly weak.
i mean, shit, if playoff team is the barometer
we are a playoff team if one of these things happens
1 - ATL game - Instead of Baker throwing an INT, he completes a 7 yard pass, Chase nails a field goal; game is out of reach
or
2 - CAR game - Instead of Baker throwing game ending INT, he is a top caliber QB and leads the team to game winning touchdown
Fact of the matter is, we averaged just 20 points a game through our cream puff last 6 games of the year. What did our defense give up in the same time frame? 21 points?
Yes the Atlanta game was an abomination on the defensive side but make no mistake about it, the offense was just as putrid in that stretch
You could make that argument against Sam Darnold as he had more interceptions and more 4th quarter interceptions than Baker despite a better OC........The difference........Defense and Head Coach. We are deficient at DC and HC. Seattle is not. Look at the defensive collapse in the ATL game you mention. Offense gave us a 20-14 lead in the 3rd quarter and then came the infamous 3 & 28. Evans wasn't talking about the offense when he walked off the field screaming 3 & 28 after the loss. See also Buffalo and NE putrid defensive effort and scheme lost both games. Baker was not his best in 2025 but also only a very small part for the 2-7 collapse. Injuries all teams have, Bucs a little worse on offense than most, the difference again the HC and DC.
I think Baker has the potential to be a top 10 QB but he needs the right scheme. As do all the QBs 7-17 ranked.
As do all QBs really. Very few who are going to just carry a team.
If Baker has a 2023 performance next year AND they have a run game and at least a middle of the road defense (big question) they are a playoff team, especially if the division remains fairly weak.
i mean, shit, if playoff team is the barometer
we are a playoff team if one of these things happens
1 - ATL game - Instead of Baker throwing an INT, he completes a 7 yard pass, Chase nails a field goal; game is out of reach
or
2 - CAR game - Instead of Baker throwing game ending INT, he is a top caliber QB and leads the team to game winning touchdown
Fact of the matter is, we averaged just 20 points a game through our cream puff last 6 games of the year. What did our defense give up in the same time frame? 21 points?
Yes the Atlanta game was an abomination on the defensive side but make no mistake about it, the offense was just as putrid in that stretch
You could make that argument against Sam Darnold as he had more interceptions and more 4th quarter interceptions than Baker despite a better OC........The difference........Defense and Head Coach. We are deficient at DC and HC. Seattle is not. Look at the defensive collapse in the ATL game you mention. Offense gave us a 20-14 lead in the 3rd quarter and then came the infamous 3 & 28. Evans wasn't talking about the offense when he walked off the field screaming 3 & 28 after the loss. See also Buffalo and NE putrid defensive effort and scheme lost both games. Baker was not his best in 2025 but also only a very small part for the 2-7 collapse. Injuries all teams have, Bucs a little worse on offense than most, the difference again the HC and DC.
You could argue if Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Lamar Jackson had a defense, they'd already have multiple superbowls.
Darnold was actually worse this year than he was the year before but he made the throws he needed to make and rode a good defense to a championship.
Mayfield had his worst of his 3 years (or we could argue semantics, but clearly regression is all agreed on from 2024)
He actually himself might be best off not lobbying for an extension this offseason because yeah 3 years, 120M is probably not what he has in mind. If he wants to get paid off of 2024 type performance, let's see it again
and dont worry, we wont lose Baker if we make him wait a year to prove himself again
Too much in flux to extend him now at anything other than a deal.
I think Baker has the potential to be a top 10 QB but he needs the right scheme. As do all the QBs 7-17 ranked.
As do all QBs really. Very few who are going to just carry a team.
If Baker has a 2023 performance next year AND they have a run game and at least a middle of the road defense (big question) they are a playoff team, especially if the division remains fairly weak.
i mean, shit, if playoff team is the barometer
we are a playoff team if one of these things happens
1 - ATL game - Instead of Baker throwing an INT, he completes a 7 yard pass, Chase nails a field goal; game is out of reach
or
2 - CAR game - Instead of Baker throwing game ending INT, he is a top caliber QB and leads the team to game winning touchdown
Fact of the matter is, we averaged just 20 points a game through our cream puff last 6 games of the year. What did our defense give up in the same time frame? 21 points?
Yes the Atlanta game was an abomination on the defensive side but make no mistake about it, the offense was just as putrid in that stretch
You could make that argument against Sam Darnold as he had more interceptions and more 4th quarter interceptions than Baker despite a better OC........The difference........Defense and Head Coach. We are deficient at DC and HC. Seattle is not. Look at the defensive collapse in the ATL game you mention. Offense gave us a 20-14 lead in the 3rd quarter and then came the infamous 3 & 28. Evans wasn't talking about the offense when he walked off the field screaming 3 & 28 after the loss. See also Buffalo and NE putrid defensive effort and scheme lost both games. Baker was not his best in 2025 but also only a very small part for the 2-7 collapse. Injuries all teams have, Bucs a little worse on offense than most, the difference again the HC and DC.
You could argue if Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Lamar Jackson had a defense, they'd already have multiple superbowls.
Darnold was actually worse this year than he was the year before but he made the throws he needed to make and rode a good defense to a championship.
Mayfield had his worst of his 3 years (or we could argue semantics, but clearly regression is all agreed on from 2024)
He actually himself might be best off not lobbying for an extension this offseason because yeah 3 years, 120M is probably not what he has in mind. If he wants to get paid off of 2024 type performance, let's see it again
and dont worry, we wont lose Baker if we make him wait a year to prove himself again
Not worried and I agree let him play it out. Josh Allen I agree may have had at least several Super Bowl appearances with a better defense. Lamar and Burrow need to stay healthy to make that claim. For that matter Baker needs to stay healthy as well.