So we're on the eve of Free Agency and things are starting to shape up with all of the rumors, trades, releases, and pre-FA signings.
FREE AGENCY:
As of the current state of rumors, it is sounding as though the Norwell dream that every team has in the offseason is heading to the Big Apple. So I'll go away from there. We're definitely going to sign an interior lineman though so that leaves Sitton and Jensen. I'm going to go with Josh Sitton, a LG at 31 years old who played very well last year (PFF # 5 OG). It appears that the Bucs are wanting to keep Marpet at C, so that takes Jensen out of the picture and Sitton should be able to be had for a much reduced contract in comparison to Norwell.
We've got the EJ Gaines to us rumor, so lets go with that. 26 year old, # 13 ranked PFF CB who does what we do well. That is a good signing for the money they're talking about.
What else? I would be shocked if we release Ayers. Further, I'm also expecting a veteran Safety for a good deal to be signed so I'm sticking with Tyvon Branche who played extremely well last year (# 6 PFF), plays in the box well (allowing more C3 w/ Evans deep) and at 31 (like Sitton) won't demand huge numbers. Finally, I'm expecting Clinton McDonald to resign.
I'm just not sure about them signing a rotational Edge player (certainly not a starter) because the bang-for-buck isn't there. I certainly don't expect us (nor want us to) sign Clayborn. Okafor or Barwin or someone like that? I'm just not seeing it. So I expect us to WANT to go heavy DL in the draft, especially Edge.
DRAFT:
Given the way things have shaken out in the last few days, I expect Quenton Nelson to be available at 7. Buffalo is likely to move up for a QB and I think Chubb and Barkley are going to be the two position players along with 4 QBs drafted before us. So I'm thinking it is going to look something like this:
1st round - OG Nelson
2nd round - I expect Chubb, Landry, Davenport to be off the board at our pick and we don't move up to get any of them. Sweat, Okoronkwo, and multiple DTs that we're interested in are here as well. My guess is that we find someone enamored of Sweat's combine numbers and we trade back a bit and pick up an additional 3rd to do so. Okoronkwo and Stephen Hays are still still on the board when we pick in the 2nd. My guess is its a tough call, but they go with Okoronkwo.
3rd rounders - My guess is the Bucs use their 4th rounder and flip 5th round picks to move up to pick 55 in the 2nd round or so and take DT Settle. For their other 3rd rounder, either Ragnow or Price will be available given their injuries so the Bucs go with one of those two for depth this year and to supplant Sitton likely the following year.
5th - 7th - RB (probably an all purpose player like Jaylon Samuels from NC State) and DB depth/special teams.
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So that is my sense of how this thing is going to shake out. I know everyone would like to have more Edge rush/DL help, but the FA market just doesn't shape up for it and our draft position just doesn't shape up for it. I think Nelson is going to be available at 7 and I just don't think there is any way we pass up that kind of prospect (and I suspect Buffalo is going to sell their 21, 22 and others to Indy most likely).
All in all, that doesn't look too bad. The interior of the line improves dramatically in both starting line-up, depth, and the future (I'm very confident both Price and Ragnow are going to be good pros).
A) We get some 3-3-5 edge rush and the prospect of having Spence and Okoronkwo coming off the edge in 3-4 looks (w/ McCoy 5 teching).
B) Our DT position improves, our CB position gets younger (I can't say improves as Gaines for Grimes is basically a wash), our Safety position improves (Branche is much better than any Safety we threw out there last year). The following year we'll have to improve our defensive backfield.
C) Our RB position is basically a wash (sub Samuels for Simms), but (a) we get younger and (b) our running game and TRZ offense gets IMMENSELY better with that interior OL improvement of Nelson/Sitton/Ragnow or Price.
