That was pretty comprehensive. For some reason I have this sense that the Bucs may surprise?Chiefs have been great vs. the run, obviously. Most of us can't figure out exactly how, since it's essentially the same exact group we had last season, and they weren't very good vs. the run in 2023.
Nick Bolton is the QB of the front-7, and our best run defender. Running up the middle with him out there is not going to work well. Misdirection might work to some degree. However, Bolton is not good in coverage, as he lacks both speed and lateral agility. Otton should be able to take advantage of him fairly consistently. As a unit, none of the KC LBs are particularly good in coverage, but Tranquill is probably our best at that position.
Justin Reid is the QB of the backfield. he's good vs. the run and any coverage where he can play running downhill, such as screens or stick routes, etc. Conversely, he's giving up a 116.2 passer Rating and a 85% completion rate when he has to try and cover downfield. Doesn't help that he's not very fast. Those numbers are pretty average over his career, btw. He's never been good in coverage when he has to chase.
Joshua Williams has been the CB2 opposite Trent McDuffie most of the time, though he might get replaced, as he's been giving up a 75% completion rate and nearly a 130 PR this season. Everyone behind him is about the same or worse so far.
If I were Coen, those are the three I would gameplan to attack the most. I would avoid throwing in McDuffie's direction and avoid running at Bolton.
The addition of DHop should mean KC struggles less vs. zone and open up more opportunities for Travis. And of course you can't play zone vs. Travis. So Bowles shouldn't be planning on playing much zone on Monday. DHop only saw three targets on Sunday, and based on how much Andy has been targeting Worthy, I'm not sure if DHop will see more than 4-5 targets Monday night.
The efficiency of the Chief's running game got a boost from the addition of Kareem Hunt over the last 4 games, but it has also seen that production steadily decline from over 5yds/carry when Hunt first became RB1, to less than 3yds/carry in Sunday's contest against the Raiders. They're overusing him. Don't really understand why. Best guess is that he's the best pass-pro RB we have.
It'll be interesting to see if Andy continues to throw 8+ targets at Worthy. Over the last two games Worthy has seen 16 targets, for 7 catches, 56 yds. Seems like a waste of some targets, but what do I know? The other starting WRs, Justin Watson and Mecole Hardman can't absorb more than a handful of targets apiece. After that, Noah Gray has been the Chiefs' top target. I think he's decent; might be what TB hopes Otton could be soon.
In case no one's noticed, the Chiefs have flipped the script on their offense. They used to throw over 65% of the time, now they're running it about that much. Since we don't have a true alpha RB, it's pretty much 1990s football; 3 yds and a cloud of dust, 35+ times a game. TB will have to be able to stop the run, but no Chiefs RB has big play capability; the longest run by a KC RB in 2024 was by Kareem Hunt for 13 yds. Have to put KC is passing situations on 3rd down and capitalize when they do by getting them off the field.
Another point that seems pretty obvious: Mahomes has thrown 9 INTs, and while you can excuse maybe 4-5 of them, like that tipped pass last Sunday, at least that many have been of his own making. If he does throw an INT vs. TB, and it seems likely that he will throw at least one, it's absolutely imperative that the Bucs score points off of it.
Last but certainly not least, Wayna Morris at LT has not been great. Not SKule bad, but not much better either. Taylor's been about his career average, but he's also had some pretty bad snaps. Bowles needs to find ways to attack both OTs, but Morris in particular. He's been so erratic that Pat has been bolting as soon as he feels the slightest pressure from the left side, throwing off his timing and eliminating the entire left side of the field at times. You can trace back many if not most of KC's 3-and-outs to Morris getting beat early and Pat bolting away from pressure early.
Goes without saying that TB is going to have a huge hill to climb trying to beat KC. But not because KC is going to score a lot of points. They aren't built to do that anymore. I figure KC will score around 24-30 points assuming Bowles defense plays reasonably well. Trick is to take advantage of every KC mistake and just not make any big mistakes on TB's side of the ball. The Chiefs have won 24 games in a row by one score, or something like that, and they're giving up a little less than 20 pts/gm, so you can do the math. They take advantage of every mistake the opposition makes by scoring some kind of points, and they just don't make very many game-changing mistakes.
So White can't fumble the ball. McMillan/Shepard/Miller/Palmer have to catch balls that hit them in the hands. Baker can't throw multiple INTs, but at the same time can't turtle up. He has to find a way to maximize risk vs. reward. Just can't have turnovers and drops by the other skill players to have a legit chance. KC might be having trouble moving the ball 60+ yds to score a TD, but they're near the top of the league if you give them a short field.
Always had this marked down as a L for TB, but the lack of legit WRs and the poor play of the LT has made KC vulnerable to a point. They can't stage a big comeback in 2024; they just don't have the weapons for big plays. If TB can get a lead in the 2nd half, they have a chance to steal this one.
It’s not a strong sense, but it’s, something. Not predicting a win, but I’ve gone from not wanting to watch anything Buc related after that loss to the Falcons, to being a bit curious…
Then again, in games that in which we’re massively outmatched, weird things can happen when no one is expecting much. This is a free game, no pressure, just some angry guys wanting to show up.
Could be we get mauled, straight up, but I’ll be watching all the same.
I actually have no concept about odds, lines, etc. I’ve never gambled, well, other than office pools picking favorites.@donkey_hunter $150 with $287 payout
You can bet the Chiefs and get almost 2 to 1?
I don't think you can from the default lines. But you could bet an alternate spread. KC-16.5 gives you a return of +200 (per FD), for example.
You can go on Hard Rock right now and get that payout on the 9.5 line.
$300 to win $573
I think I’d actually find it interesting if somebody started a thread about it.
And before you ask, no I’m not being facetious.
That was pretty comprehensive. For some reason I have this sense that the Bucs may surprise?Chiefs have been great vs. the run, obviously. Most of us can't figure out exactly how, since it's essentially the same exact group we had last season, and they weren't very good vs. the run in 2023.
Nick Bolton is the QB of the front-7, and our best run defender. Running up the middle with him out there is not going to work well. Misdirection might work to some degree. However, Bolton is not good in coverage, as he lacks both speed and lateral agility. Otton should be able to take advantage of him fairly consistently. As a unit, none of the KC LBs are particularly good in coverage, but Tranquill is probably our best at that position.
Justin Reid is the QB of the backfield. he's good vs. the run and any coverage where he can play running downhill, such as screens or stick routes, etc. Conversely, he's giving up a 116.2 passer Rating and a 85% completion rate when he has to try and cover downfield. Doesn't help that he's not very fast. Those numbers are pretty average over his career, btw. He's never been good in coverage when he has to chase.
Joshua Williams has been the CB2 opposite Trent McDuffie most of the time, though he might get replaced, as he's been giving up a 75% completion rate and nearly a 130 PR this season. Everyone behind him is about the same or worse so far.
If I were Coen, those are the three I would gameplan to attack the most. I would avoid throwing in McDuffie's direction and avoid running at Bolton.
The addition of DHop should mean KC struggles less vs. zone and open up more opportunities for Travis. And of course you can't play zone vs. Travis. So Bowles shouldn't be planning on playing much zone on Monday. DHop only saw three targets on Sunday, and based on how much Andy has been targeting Worthy, I'm not sure if DHop will see more than 4-5 targets Monday night.
The efficiency of the Chief's running game got a boost from the addition of Kareem Hunt over the last 4 games, but it has also seen that production steadily decline from over 5yds/carry when Hunt first became RB1, to less than 3yds/carry in Sunday's contest against the Raiders. They're overusing him. Don't really understand why. Best guess is that he's the best pass-pro RB we have.
It'll be interesting to see if Andy continues to throw 8+ targets at Worthy. Over the last two games Worthy has seen 16 targets, for 7 catches, 56 yds. Seems like a waste of some targets, but what do I know? The other starting WRs, Justin Watson and Mecole Hardman can't absorb more than a handful of targets apiece. After that, Noah Gray has been the Chiefs' top target. I think he's decent; might be what TB hopes Otton could be soon.
In case no one's noticed, the Chiefs have flipped the script on their offense. They used to throw over 65% of the time, now they're running it about that much. Since we don't have a true alpha RB, it's pretty much 1990s football; 3 yds and a cloud of dust, 35+ times a game. TB will have to be able to stop the run, but no Chiefs RB has big play capability; the longest run by a KC RB in 2024 was by Kareem Hunt for 13 yds. Have to put KC is passing situations on 3rd down and capitalize when they do by getting them off the field.
Another point that seems pretty obvious: Mahomes has thrown 9 INTs, and while you can excuse maybe 4-5 of them, like that tipped pass last Sunday, at least that many have been of his own making. If he does throw an INT vs. TB, and it seems likely that he will throw at least one, it's absolutely imperative that the Bucs score points off of it.
Last but certainly not least, Wayna Morris at LT has not been great. Not SKule bad, but not much better either. Taylor's been about his career average, but he's also had some pretty bad snaps. Bowles needs to find ways to attack both OTs, but Morris in particular. He's been so erratic that Pat has been bolting as soon as he feels the slightest pressure from the left side, throwing off his timing and eliminating the entire left side of the field at times. You can trace back many if not most of KC's 3-and-outs to Morris getting beat early and Pat bolting away from pressure early.
Goes without saying that TB is going to have a huge hill to climb trying to beat KC. But not because KC is going to score a lot of points. They aren't built to do that anymore. I figure KC will score around 24-30 points assuming Bowles defense plays reasonably well. Trick is to take advantage of every KC mistake and just not make any big mistakes on TB's side of the ball. The Chiefs have won 24 games in a row by one score, or something like that, and they're giving up a little less than 20 pts/gm, so you can do the math. They take advantage of every mistake the opposition makes by scoring some kind of points, and they just don't make very many game-changing mistakes.
So White can't fumble the ball. McMillan/Shepard/Miller/Palmer have to catch balls that hit them in the hands. Baker can't throw multiple INTs, but at the same time can't turtle up. He has to find a way to maximize risk vs. reward. Just can't have turnovers and drops by the other skill players to have a legit chance. KC might be having trouble moving the ball 60+ yds to score a TD, but they're near the top of the league if you give them a short field.
Always had this marked down as a L for TB, but the lack of legit WRs and the poor play of the LT has made KC vulnerable to a point. They can't stage a big comeback in 2024; they just don't have the weapons for big plays. If TB can get a lead in the 2nd half, they have a chance to steal this one.
It’s not a strong sense, but it’s, something. Not predicting a win, but I’ve gone from not wanting to watch anything Buc related after that loss to the Falcons, to being a bit curious…
Then again, in games that in which we’re massively outmatched, weird things can happen when no one is expecting much. This is a free game, no pressure, just some angry guys wanting to show up.
Could be we get mauled, straight up, but I’ll be watching all the same.
Like I said back before the season even started, I had this marked as an L. But that was when I thought Hollywood and Rice were going to be the top 2 WRs for KC.
However, KC does have a few chinks in their armor, and they are only averaging 24.7pts/gm. So, yeah, TB has a chance. If they can minimize their recent issues with turnovers, but most importantly Bowles has to call a much better game than he has over the last 4-5 games, and the defense has to execute, eliminate missed tackles, stop with the miscommunications, etc. It's a tall task to beat KC even when a team is playing well in all three phases, but impossible if they don't play at least decent defense.
It's probably going to take at least one lucky bounce in TB's favor to beat KC, and that's even if Baker can limit his INTs to just one (or none, KC doesn't generate very many INTs because they play so much man), his weapons can get on track and not drop any balls, and Bowles can get the defense to tackle well and execute a good gameplan. But it almost certainly won't be a blowout, and Mahomes will almost certainly give up at least one INT. And no team can keep winning one-score games forever. Sooner or later the defense of that team will have a below-their-average day, and TB has a top-5 offense that could take advantage.
One of the things in TB's favor is that Baker has actually beaten Mahomes before (in college), and he played well under tough circumstances in Arrowhead back in 2020, and if not for a borderline illegal hit that prevented a R. Higgins TD, by Dan Sorensen, Baker and the Browns probably would've beaten KC that day. Well, maybe. CLE's defense in 2020 wasn't very good, bottom third, iirc, so maybe it wouldn't have mattered. Point being, Baker isn't scared of Pat Mahomes or the Chiefs. He's played well vs. Mahomes and Spags before. But it's going to have to be a team effort, and no one unit for TB can have a bad day.
But this TB team has been very resilient the last 29 games or so since Baker became the QB1, and won several games they weren't predicted to win, and were very competitive in several more most thought they wouldn't have been. They have a bit better chance than a lot of people think they do, if everyone plays their best football, and Bowles yanks his head out of his ass and gameplans/calls a good game.
I actually have no concept about odds, lines, etc. I’ve never gambled, well, other than office pools picking favorites.@donkey_hunter $150 with $287 payout
You can bet the Chiefs and get almost 2 to 1?
I don't think you can from the default lines. But you could bet an alternate spread. KC-16.5 gives you a return of +200 (per FD), for example.
You can go on Hard Rock right now and get that payout on the 9.5 line.
$300 to win $573
I think I’d actually find it interesting if somebody started a thread about it.
And before you ask, no I’m not being facetious.
For beginners, you might like Colin Cowherd's "sharp or square" casts. Doesn't give you an in-depth breakdown of how everything works, but it does give you some real-life indications of how betting works and how the sharps see the games and how they make some of their decisions in easy to digest chunks
I actually have no concept about odds, lines, etc. I’ve never gambled, well, other than office pools picking favorites.@donkey_hunter $150 with $287 payout
You can bet the Chiefs and get almost 2 to 1?
I don't think you can from the default lines. But you could bet an alternate spread. KC-16.5 gives you a return of +200 (per FD), for example.
You can go on Hard Rock right now and get that payout on the 9.5 line.
$300 to win $573
Biggs will be a long momentarily, please stand by.
lol
One of the things in TB's favor is that Baker has actually beaten Mahomes before (in college)
With all due respect, that is completely and totally irrelevant.
I actually have no concept about odds, lines, etc. I’ve never gambled, well, other than office pools picking favorites.
I think I’d actually find it interesting if somebody started a thread about it.
And before you ask, no I’m not being facetious.
Lol.
You can find some pretty good follows on Twitter, who do a good job explaining.
And, in all seriousness, if you get into it; just have a mindset that it’s simply for fun and entertainment. Set a limit.
@donkey_hunter Yes, it’s why I never got into it that much. I don’t like giving away my money cuz it always takes more time tomake it than to spend it. I don’t know a lot about odds, but I know they aren’t in my favor.
The bookies and gambling houses would agree with you that the odds are not in your favor, the odds are in their favor.@donkey_hunter Yes, it’s why I never got into it that much. I don’t like giving away my money cuz it always takes more time tomake it than to spend it. I don’t know a lot about odds, but I know they aren’t in my favor.
@donkey_hunter Yes, it’s why I never got into it that much. I don’t like giving away my money cuz it always takes more time tomake it than to spend it. I don’t know a lot about odds, but I know they aren’t in my favor.
Yeah, like DH said, you don't want to take it too seriously. Mostly i mess around with it for fun. Just to see how any times I'm right vs. the sharps and LV. Rarely put real $$$ on anything.
Take just this one example: the sharps like DAL this week and apparently have been putting a lot of $$$ on them so far. But neither Parson nor Bland are going to play. So DAL won't have a pass rush and one of their best ballhawks won't be out there either. DAL also can't run the ball, nor can they stop the run. So, I'm thinking that DAL won't cover, even though the sharps believe it. I'll probably put $10-$20 on it just to see if I'm right and they're wrong.
Pretty much all of my bets are about that much, except the SB and maybe two or three other games during the season that seem like locks, where I'll throw a unit ($100) or two at. I start the season with a budget of $500. Most years I'll break even or lose/make a couple units. Nothing serious, and if I lose, well, $500 over 20 weeks isn't going to break me.
Well that's a lot of money for me at least.@donkey_hunter $150 with $287 payout
Okay.
I mean, you said a “nice haul of cash”.
So, I thought you were throwing down multiple units on multiple things since this was such a no-brainer.
My bad.
Well that's a lot of money for me at least.@donkey_hunter $150 with $287 payout
Okay.
I mean, you said a “nice haul of cash”.
So, I thought you were throwing down multiple units on multiple things since this was such a no-brainer.
My bad.
Not saying it isn’t.
But, if you’re that confident, put some legs on it with some props.
I have a Hard Rock account and place bets each week just for kicks, no big money bets.
I was 3 for 4 vs the spread last week.
I agree about ATL -2.5 vs DAL this week. I also have DEN +9 @ BAL, PHI -7 vs JAX, and KC -8.5 vs TB. BAL is dominant at home, but DEN is surging and plays well on the road, they've covered in all four road games this season, and won two of them outright as underdogs. PHI is finally getting back on track and finding their game, and JAX is overall horrible. KC hasn't been dominant this season, but they're winning all their games. Monday night is a golden opportunity for a dominant win vs an undermanned TB squad.
Of course this is all conjecture as we all know anything can happen week to week in the NFL.
Loved being right about ATL, though it doesn't help TB. Knew DAL would fail, again.
I couldn't pull the trigger on the BAL/DEN game, and now glad I didn't. Sharps were apparently on BAL even giving the -9.5, and they were right again. I figured BAL would be angry, especially after losing to CLE of all teams. They didn't disappoint.
True. I went with the trends DEN at BAL. And I got bit by a defensive TD by JAX. It's all good, it happens.
