Exciting season ahead, but what are the things that could derail the Bucs?
1. Injuries - easily the number #1 thing that can derail any NFL team, but the Bucs saw it last year and even now that thought comes up with Wirfs out briefly (hopefully)
2. Grizz - not calling games before in real time. Canales had a learning curve, so can the Bucs survice that kind of learning curve ealry and/or does Grizz have the kind of IN GAME play calling needed to succeed in the NFL
3. Mayfield - he got away with some thing last season and reportedly this season they wnat to push the ball down field more. JosH Q just dicussed this:
"And this brings us back to the nature of Mayfield’s play. In many ways, he is a big game hunter. Early in his career, this manifested in his propensity to push the ball deep down field. More recently, it is his out-of-structure play. That play has brought some amazing moments – the Nick Bosa fend off comes to mind – but it has also led to putting the ball in danger.
That is, in part, why he was credited with 24 turnover-worthy plays and part of his 14 fumbles last year as well. It is also borne out by the percentage of his plays that received a ‘zero’ grade. At 59.4%, he was third lowest, bested only by Lamar Jackson and Brock Purdy."
4. Reddick - if he doesnt return to form the Bucs pass rush is much the same
On the positive side, a couple things that could happen to unexpectedly help the Bucs excel
1. Egbuka -- is a real star. Not just quality depth, but a guy whose performance dominates
2. Braswell -- unlikely perhaps, but the speed of the game is not beyond him and he is a very productive DE
3. Tucker -- improves and pushes White out of the way. Maybe also unlikely.
4. McMillan - gets past being a good but one dimensional receiver or even just continues to light it up because teams have to focus on Evans etc.
Griz the Whiz - I'm not worried about his creativity. I'm worried about what he'll do in a close game in the 4th quarter. Will he be able to manage the playcalling under pressure when it's about making the right call, not the most imaginative call? But Mayfield will have a lot of leeway based on what he sees at the line, so that experience does alleviate some of that concern, but not all of it. There's no substitute for experience.
Mayfield - I'm mainly worried about his health (knocking on wood). He puts himself in danger at times and the Bucs have been very fortunate that our starting QB has never missed a game since the Winston era. He'll play when he's banged up, but a bad shoulder, hip or ankle can affect his ability to throw.
I think you are forgetting the #1 question mark, which is still the inside linebackers IMO. If you remember way back to the draft, they didn't draft an ILB. David is old and Dennis has had issues staying healthy. Will one year free agents Jones and Walker be able to do the job? Free agents are notorious for not living up to expectations, especially one year low budget FAs. Hope I'm wrong and this group does the job, but I have a feeling that come midyear they'll be calling on the practice squad once again to play defensive snaps which shouldn't happen.
I think you are forgetting the #1 question mark, which is still the inside linebackers IMO. If you remember way back to the draft, they didn't draft an ILB. David is old and Dennis has had issues staying healthy.
Fair point.
I dont know about Dennis though because didnt he get the shoulder issue resolved? I think that was his issue staying healthy and I thought it went back to college. Could be wrong.
Positive surprises:
Logan Hall should get some sack opportunities with all the attention being paid to the rest of the guys on the line. He's playing for a contract, and don't be surprised if he re-signs with the Bucs. He may have more value inside one-Buc than the fans realize.
I'll predict that Wirfs will not go on the Pup and miss only a game or two. Just a gut feeling because he doesn't have to be 100% as long as he's not risking further injury.
It's hard to say Egbuka will be a surprise to anyone paying attention.
Culp and Durham will step up when Otton gets banged up with the way he gets hit.
Trask will start at least two games and will perform adequately.
In theory it's resolved. ILBs have more and harder tackles than anybody else on the field. The shoulder is the first thing to take the hit for them. David has stayed healthy for most of his career, so hopefully Dennis can stay healthy as well.I think you are forgetting the #1 question mark, which is still the inside linebackers IMO. If you remember way back to the draft, they didn't draft an ILB. David is old and Dennis has had issues staying healthy.
Fair point.
I dont know about Dennis though because didnt he get the shoulder issue resolved? I think that was his issue staying healthy and I thought it went back to college. Could be wrong.
Devin Culp, Maybe? Breaking out to be a consistent offensive contributor
the biggest boom or bust factors are:
HIGH CONCERN
1 - How does Grizzard do? As a play caller...is he closer to Coen or Canales or Leftwich?
2 - Which Reddick do we get? Jets or Eagles version?
MID CONCERN
3 - How severe is Wirfs injury?
4 - How effective is Godwin this year?
LOW CONCERN
5 - Does father time catch up with Evans or LVD?
6 - Does Baker take a step back from his back to back career seasons?
If anybody took the hardest hits last year it was Otton. They either have to get the other TEs more involved by choice or it will be by necessity. Culp is having a good camp and he's a different kind of weapon. Durham may get more snaps, but Culp is more of a receiver than a blocker and will get more receptions than Durham.Devin Culp, Maybe? Breaking out to be a consistent offensive contributor
Not a surprise really but SR's Fab 5 mentions the player who could transform the 2024 defense
Inside linebacker SirVocea Dennis hasn’t made a lot of splash plays in practice so far. No interceptions so far, and he’s usually one of the guys who comes up with one during a week’s worth of practices. The reason? Dennis’ coverage in the middle of the field has been so good that the Bucs quarterbacks have avoided throwing at him. That’s welcome news for the inside linebacker position, which was often victimized in games last year after Dennis went on injured reserve after Week 4.
potential surprise on defense
Undrafted free agent J.J. Roberts looks like an absolute steal. Unless he bombs in the preseason, Roberts is on his way to making the 53-man roster because he’s made so many plays in practice. Both Parrish and Roberts seem poised to receive playing time as rookies.
Roberts has to be the surprise X factor if he continues his ascent. It is not unheard of a rookie DB winning NCB and making it as an UDFA (eg Izien). But I think Roberts is more explosive like in the mold of Dwight Smith. I am eager to see Roberts, Parrish and Morrison fly around on that backend in pre season football.
Bullock and Jackson are another pair of UDFA rookies that can make waves. Especially Nick Jackson who at one point had a draft grade and his competition is Grier who is lowkey underrated. Jones and Walker are known players with Jones being able to go sideline to sideline and drop into coverage. And Walker who is known for the ability to flow downhill and time hitting those gaps perfectly.
Exciting season ahead, but what are the things that could derail the Bucs?
1. Injuries - easily the number #1 thing that can derail any NFL team, but the Bucs saw it last year and even now that thought comes up with Wirfs out briefly (hopefully)
2. Grizz - not calling games before in real time. Canales had a learning curve, so can the Bucs survice that kind of learning curve ealry and/or does Grizz have the kind of IN GAME play calling needed to succeed in the NFL
3. Mayfield - he got away with some thing last season and reportedly this season they wnat to push the ball down field more. JosH Q just dicussed this:
"And this brings us back to the nature of Mayfield’s play. In many ways, he is a big game hunter. Early in his career, this manifested in his propensity to push the ball deep down field. More recently, it is his out-of-structure play. That play has brought some amazing moments – the Nick Bosa fend off comes to mind – but it has also led to putting the ball in danger.
That is, in part, why he was credited with 24 turnover-worthy plays and part of his 14 fumbles last year as well. It is also borne out by the percentage of his plays that received a ‘zero’ grade. At 59.4%, he was third lowest, bested only by Lamar Jackson and Brock Purdy."
4. Reddick - if he doesnt return to form the Bucs pass rush is much the same
On the positive side, a couple things that could happen to unexpectedly help the Bucs excel
1. Egbuka -- is a real star. Not just quality depth, but a guy whose performance dominates
2. Braswell -- unlikely perhaps, but the speed of the game is not beyond him and he is a very productive DE
3. Tucker -- improves and pushes White out of the way. Maybe also unlikely.
4. McMillan - gets past being a good but one dimensional receiver or even just continues to light it up because teams have to focus on Evans etc.
1. Injuries - All teams are vulnerable so I'm not too worried about them. Just pray we are ready for them when they happen when it's the "Next Man Up".
2. Grizz - I'm not worried about him for one second. He has been around long enough and has help developed plays with quite a few to know how to put them together. Glad he's here and staying for awhile.
3. Mayfield - (a.k.a. Shake and Bake) The man has skills and we are very fortunate to have him. He is a playmaker and he is as good as any other out there on the field today. Love both our QB's and Trask is the sleeper (he'll perform when it's his time).
4. Reddick - This is his time to shine and make all things come to a positive note to elevate his position and length of time here at OBP. This one I am really hoping for because he can (if the stars align) out shine all the naysayers!
5 Egbuka - He is a welcomed addition and glad we have him. He (IMO) is as good as Chris Godwin and I like those two in the backfield.
6. Braswell - has improved every year he's been here. He's the real deal and some forget that development takes a few years
7. Tucker - I love all three of our RB's because they bring nothing like we've seen before for the Buc's. Bucky is my number 1 thought Love his Barry Sanders style!!
8. McMillan - He is coming along nicely and I like him as well as Trey Palmer. He is a force if he keeps his focus this year
One thing that you didn't mention when talking about Baker or Tucker, Our Offensive line is one of the best in the NFL. Where our OL goes so does our QB and RB's. I am glad to see when Baker see's the holes open up and he can make plays. He at times is as elusive as Lamar Jackson. One thing for certain this is going to be an exciting year being that it is the 50 year mark of the Bucs and we have such a well put together team from the front office to the Coaching and Staff. Go Buc's!!
Braswell was a rookie last year and his growth was stunted due to JTS hogging so much playing time for no good reason.
Grizz has a lot to learn but he is also going to provide extra wrinkles which will be a competitive edge at the start of the season. Bucs desperately need to squeak out some early wins until Godwin and Wirfs return. Grizz may be able to provide some wizardry to really help the Bucs win some contests they have no business winning.
Braswell was a rookie last year and his growth was stunted due to JTS hogging so much playing time for no good reason.
Diaby received more snaps (515) as a third round rookie in 2023 than Braswell did (329) as a second round rookie in 2024. If Braswell couldn't beat out JTS for reps, that's on Braswell.
The team, and the entirety of the NFL, obviously didn't think very much of JTS as he signed a one-year deal for less than $5M as 26-year-old FA "pass rusher." JTS isn't good and Braswell is trending in that same direction.
Braswell was a rookie last year and his growth was stunted due to JTS hogging so much playing time for no good reason.
Diaby received more snaps (515) as a third round rookie in 2023 than Braswell did (329) as a second round rookie in 2024. If Braswell couldn't beat out JTS for reps, that's on Braswell.
The team, and the entirety of the NFL, obviously didn't think very much of JTS as he signed a one-year deal for less than $5M as 26-year-old FA "pass rusher." JTS isn't good and Braswell is trending in that same direction.
Who knows how Braswell turns out, but man talk about a myopic take.
The comment above is about Braswell being stunted due to JTS hogging reps (for no good reason). The reporting has been that Braswell was bogged down by the complexity of the defense. Hardly a novel concept. Thinking = SLOW.
Who knows if that is true, but its at least grounded in THIS:
We kind of know where we want to use Joe at now – he’s more of a ‘joker-type’ player for us to move around and do different things for us,” Bowles said.Joe is a very unique player,” Bowles said. “He’s not going to be a go-around-the-corner, Shaq-type guy. Joe can move all across the line of scrimmage and help us in a lot of things. He’s our linebacker, he’s our defensive end, he’s our three-tech, he’s our part-time nickel, he’s our part-time inside ‘backer. He can come from a lot of areas, so he has a lot of jobs. He’s one of those chess pieces that I talk about.”
I think JTS was also in a stay or go year, so rightly or wrongly, the team and Bowles specifically is going to go with the veteran over a rookie given those factors. That may still mean Braswell is a bust, but it might also mean he is not.
Josh Sweat had 8 sacks last year, at least one in the Super Bowl. His rookie stats line was all zeroes, maybe one tackle lol
Time will tell.