NFL Black Monday Primer: Which Coaches Will Be Fired, and Who Will Fill The Vacancies
By ALBERT BREER December 28, 2017
SI.com
Sixteen years later, Amy Trask still vividly remembers the moment she found out that the Jon Gruden Raiders-to-Buccaneers trade had been consummated.
Trask was the Oakland CEO at the time. And she was not pleased.
“My husband and I were coming in the house, it was 9, 9:30 at night,” Trask recalls now. “And the phone was ringing, my arms were full of things, and I remember picking up the phone and it’s Al (Davis). And I’m juggling things in my arms, and I’m so distracted and he says, ‘blah, blah, blah, trade.’ And I said to him, ‘Look, I’m gonna again ask you—please rethink this, I don’t think we should do this.’
“And his exact words were, ‘I don’t think you heard me. I just told you, I just did it.’”
That night, in early 2002, the Raiders sent Gruden to the Bucs for first-round and second-round picks in that April’s draft, a first-rounder in 2003 and a second-rounder in 2004. The Raiders wound up with corner Philip Buchanon, tackle Langston Walker, defensive end Taylor Brayton and center Jake Grove. Oakland made the Super Bowl that next season under Bill Callahan.
The Bucs, behind Gruden, beat the Raiders for the Lombardi. And because of that, history will tell you that Trask was right to tell Davis not to trade the coach, despite the tremendous haul coming back. So the question I had for Trask next was simple: Was there a point where she’d have signed off on dealing Gruden, something she’d been steadfastly against?
“Maybe,” she said. “I doubt it, but maybe.”
The coaching carousel is about to start spinning again, and we’re about to take you through all the rumors. But everything needs to be prefaced with the fact that, in this year’s market, supply is lagging behind demand. There have been 50 coaching changes in the past seven cycles, more than seven per year, and that’s dried out the pipeline. And with 8-10 openings expected this year, some teams may try to get creative.
So maybe the time has come to reprise the idea of coaches being traded. Texans coach Bill O’Brien is the most obvious candidate to be moved. But the idea of Browns coach Hue Jackson and Jets coach Todd Bowles going back to their old homes in Cincinnati and Arizona has been kicked around in league circles all fall, and those guys are under contract too. The wheels certainly are turning.
A trade is not the only way teams could think outside the box to find the right guy in January. Some might dip their toe in the college pool (Stanford’s David Shaw will get calls), others may look to position coaches (Philadelphia QB coach John DeFilippo) or special teams coaches (Kansas City’s Dave Toub), if they’re not satisfied with the class or can’t get one of its belles.
In this week’s Game Plan, Matt Ryan will take us inside the Falcons’ mentality with their season on the line on Sunday; John Lynch will explain why Bill Belichick’s actions brought to life his interest in Jimmy Garoppolo; and we’ll examine the unrest in Oakland and Dallas, and spin you through all the latest rumors.
But we start with all the teams that could be active on Black Monday, and I’ll break this into three categories for everyone. Let’s go …
LIKELY/DONE
• Chicago Bears: The writing has been on the wall here for a while. The expectation is that John Fox will be gone. What’s less certain is whether or not general manager Ryan Pace gets to pick the next coach, and whether or not the coaches pursued by the Bears dictate Pace’s fate.
• Cincinnati Bengals: Marvin Lewis’ impending departure has been on the table from the moment he and the team decided not to do another one-year Band-Aid extension, which sent him into a contract year. Word is, the Bengals will lean towards coaches they know, which is why Jackson and Jay Gruden’s names have been mentioned, as have internal candidates Paul Guenther and Darrin Simmons.
• Detroit Lions: With the Lions eliminated, I moved this one from the “maybe” pile, as rumblings have held for a few weeks that Jim Caldwell would be in trouble if he missed the playoffs. I’d expect Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia to be a consideration if Caldwell gets whacked, with the possibility that Jim Bob Cooter and the offensive staff stay.
• Indianapolis Colts: Chuck Pagano kept his team competitive, and the front office respects the job he and staff have done. That said, GM Chris Ballard is almost certain to fire Pagano and hire his own guy. The attractiveness of the job Ballard will offer is, of course, tied to Andrew Luck’s health. Two of his ex-Chief co-workers, Toub and offensive coordinator Matt Nagy, have been connected to this one, and there are whispers that Indy could make a run at Pats offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.
• New York Giants: Much will depend on who the team hires as general manager, and many believe that Dave Gettleman will be involved in the remaking of the scouting operation, be it as the hire or in another senior role. While the attention has been on McDaniels, and a McDaniels/Nick Caserio package deal has been rumored to be a consideration, I’d expect both Patriot coordinators to be considered.
WE’LL SEE
• Arizona Cardinals: Many have assumed that Bruce Arians will retire after this year. Is he having second thoughts? The Cardinals went through this last year—Sean McVay was atop their candidate list then—and are ready either way now. As we mentioned, the Jets could get a call on Bowles, and O’Brien might draw interest here too.
• Denver Broncos: John Elway is not pleased with how the season’s gone, and the expectation is there will at least be changes to the offensive side of the staff. A bad loss at home to the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs could put Vance Joseph in peril. This one remains unpredictable.
• Oakland Raiders: Jack Del Rio is under contract through 2020, and so a big question here is whether or not Mark Davis would be willing to eat three years on a contract. Assuming he’ll give Del Rio another year, there are problems on the staff that we’ll detail a little later in the column that should lead to a significant shakeup. Another thing to note here would be Davis’ long-standing fascination with Gruden.
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: There’s been some level of expectation that Dirk Koetter will be a casualty of the Bucs’ hugely disappointing 2017 season, and we’ve seen several on-field signs (most recently, with Jameis Winston’s display last Sunday) that he’s lost some level of control over the team. You know where this goes next: All eyes on Gruden. And if they can’t get Gruden, does Koetter get a stay of execution?
• Tennessee Titans: If the Titans beat the Jags on Sunday, they’re in the playoffs. If they lose, there could be a coaching change. And if there is one, I’d bet McDaniels is in the mix to reunite with his ex-Patriot colleague Jon Robinson.
• Washington Redskins: A change here would require eating three years of Jay Gruden’s contract, and I don’t believe Dan Snyder would be pumped to write those checks. I also believe many in the building there think Jay Gruden had a strong four years. But it’s Washington … so you can’t rule anything out.
IT’S COMPLICATED
• Cleveland Browns: Jimmy Haslam already said Hue Jackson will be back in 2018, and GM John Dorsey affirmed it upon his hiring. What if the Bengals call? Will 0-16 change anything? My belief is Jackson sticks, but I also know Dorsey’s done his research.
• Houston Texans: Simply, a reckoning is coming here. I’d be floored if O’Brien even considered signing an extension without changes to the way the football operation is aligned, and 2018 is a contract year for him. That would create a decision point for ownership—go forward for a year with a coach that would be the No. 1 guy on the market if free, or cut the cord now and move forward with GM Rick Smith.
• New York Jets: Acting owner Chris Johnson has proven to be very level-headed, and so I’d expect the little signs of encouragement that he’s gotten from the work of GM Mike Maccagnan and Bowles this fall would carry the current group through to 2018. But if Bowles has options, like Arizona, this could get interesting.
• Seattle Seahawks: Crazy? Maybe. But with the future of several big defensive stars in question, and a possible overhaul of the roster coming, could Pete Carroll, 66, retire to southern California? It’s not the wildest idea out there.
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