I wanted to take a look at these two defenses' Rush vs coverage for key positions to (a) get a better idea of what we can expect (vs what they've said), (b) discern the evolution of Bowles, and (c) what are the implications on this draft class.
Here is the data (these aren't 100 % precise, but within a very small margin-of-error):
2013 Arizona
Nickel
Rush (per game) - 3
Coverage (per game) - 35
Box Safety/Hybrid
Rush (per game) - 3.75
Coverage (per game) - 35
ILB (symmetrical)
Rush (per game) - 12
Coverage (per game) - 25
Edge (symmetrical)
Rush (per game) - 25
Coverage (per game) - 12.5
2017 NYJ
Nickel
Rush (per game) - 1.5
Coverage (per game) - 36.5
Box Safety/Hybrid
Rush (per game) - 6.75
Coverage (per game) - 35
ILB - (asymmetrical)
Rush (per game) - 6
Coverage (per game) - 34
Edge - 25/game and 1:3.5 (asymmetrical)
Rush (per game) - 22
Coverage (per game) - 3.5
+++++++++++++++++++
Commentary/thoughts:
1) Notice the (symmetrical/asymmetrical) on the Offball and Edge positions. What this means/reveals is that the 2013 defense blitzed/dropped both ILBs and Edge players at roughly the same rate. The inverse is true in 2018 (they drops were very disproportionate).
In terms of ILBs, this could mean a number of things. Two I can think of are:
a) Their Green Dog Blitz (LB comes on blitz if the Man they're responsible for covering Pass Protects) changed last year such that one player was primarily GDB-ing while the other was mostly straight coverage. This seems likely. However, the interesting thing is that the player who primarily covered (Lee) was terrible in coverage but + on the Blitz while the other was ok in coverage and ok on the blitz.
b) Their Zone blitz package (often a C2Z Trap coverage) featured one particular player coming after the QB most of the time.
For Edge players it is also asymmetrical, but the Edge players are still overwhelmingly rushing the passer. My guess is that, like (b) above, a particular blitz package featured a particular Edge player in a package dropping into Hook/Seam (if C2Z) or Curl/Flat (if C3Z). For instance, for us this would be Barrett disproportionately blitzing and Bucannon/Edwards (sub-package on-ball "Edge" players) dropping into coverage. This would explain the discrepancy.
2) Notice the increase in snaps in Safety/Hybrid players and the decrease in snaps of Edge players from 2013 to 2018.
This has some explanatory power for our draft this year. Bowles appears to have gone to significant sub-packaging where an Edge player leaves the field and a NCB/S/Hybrid comes on for them.
The 7 DB comment alludes to this.
3) Notice the decrease in ILB blitz rate from 2013 to 2018. Its cut in half. It seems to me that their commentary on White (both implicit in the drafting at 5 and the actual things they've said) has to preclude a reversion to the 2013 ILB blitz rate (especially doubling down on this with LVD) and a likely increase in Green Dog Blitzing (to inflate those numbers).
However, even with a reversion to 2013, you're still talking about a 2:1 ratio of coverage to rushing the passer for ILBs (contrast with the Edge rate, which is around double). Yes, this defense brings ILBs (at least it did a lot in 2013)...but they don't bring them even close to the rate of Edge players (like everyone else) so the proposition that pass rushing ILBs in this defense warrants a value increase compared to a hyper-productive Edge is dubious. It seems to me that number probably needs to spike to somewhere near 1.33 to 1.5 * the 2013 number (which would be pretty crazy) at maybe 16-18 times per game to warrant that value increase that BA was adamant about. I don't believe that will happen.
