My personal expectation is 11 wins and making the NFCCG.
I concur with your expectations.
Agreed. Those expectations aren't unfair or unreasonable.
fact is that we often bring blitz packages while playing cover 3 behind it.
He is often playing cover 3 as a base - like much of the ngl- but altering it as part of a pressure package. This is why he has traditionally loved "joker" type players ie someone who can start in the S role but then cover because that pre-snap CB blitzed.
like every decent DC Bowles is trying most often to show one thing to a QB presnap that is different from what they are actually running. That is very effective - multiple seasons top 10 in scoring - when you have talent and less so when you do not.
we just reloaded on defense
I think the Bucs last season were 5th in scoring offense and 17th in scoring defense. That would mean they were roughly a 11 team - (5+17)/2. The Eagles were something like a 3, number one defense and 5th offense, I think.
The 2025 most likely scenario for the Bucs is a slight regression on offense and a slight impatient on defense. Injuries etc can change ACTUAL performance but assume the Bucs at 7th offense and 10th defense so they are an 8 team.
Look at 2024 teams. An 8 should be a division winning playoff team?
just a guess
Not worth correcting the autocorrect.
point is the Bucs should do well, barring injuries Pressure on Bowles
My personal expectation is 11 wins and making the NFCCG.
Agreed.
Anything less is a failed season.
....Dean is not a m2m corner. Zion can play some man. He didn’t draft them to play man. Now I hope he has drafted Morrison and Parrish to play more man.
Great post(s) as usual.
Only thing I would disagree with you on is your summarization of Dean.
He has proven to good at m2m throughout his career. He's also proven to be highly effective when pressing (it was one of his strengths in nearly every draft profile).
That being said, I think we'll see a more physical style with Morrison, and especially Parrish.
My bigger concern is with Todd and his "explanations" of pressing vs. off coverage, man vs. zone, etc.:
- A few seasons ago, his 2 starting corners voiced their frustrations that they weren't playing enough man, and weren't playing enough press.
- Then the next season, Todd came out and said it was up to the corners (play dependent)
- Now, this season, Todd is saying he doesn't like off-coverage and he prefers press.
Multiple instances of him absolutely contradicting himself.
And, going what we've all seen and Bowles' history of stubbornness, I'd agree with the aforementioned players.
You want to play more press, Todd? You want to play more m2m, Todd?
Then shut up and do it. Stop talking about it.
"Dean missed time last season with injuries to both knees and a hamstring, and Tampa Bay missed him when he was sidelined. With Dean on the field, the Buccaneers allowed 6.8 yards per attempt and an 89.6 passer rating, Without him, those numbers were 7.6 and 111.4, respectively. Dean graded out as PFF's 14th-best cornerback out of 77 who played at least 600 snaps," Pereles wrote."
I dont think Dean (a M2M corner) has ever played a full season? Maybe his first year. The Bucs defense is definitely better with a healthy Dean playing. As soon as he leaves his M2m post against the Commanders we give up a TD pass to the guy he was covering.
BUT, he's not been consistently healthy
SO . .
. . does he play a full season?
and IF he does and IF he performs like he should what do the Bucs do with him from there?
Anyone have the numbers from last season? I would think very similar. Pressure and turnovers are up
https://x.com/fball_insights/status/1985803581404905945
32 percent of the time, runs a Cover-3 zone defense .
Cover-4 zone defense 20 percent of the time.
Cover-0 or Cover-2 man defenses Bowles uses five percent of the time, each.
Same with a Cover-6 zone defense. Bowles uses that defense five percent of the time.
Pressure and turnovers are up so talent on the field?
Three Dean INTS, at least 2 are Dean coming off his zone in Cover 2 . . . so deception
Pressure and turnovers are up so talent on the field?
Bowles made tweaks to his scheme is the biggest change really.
Parrish is good but I wouldn't say he is that much better than T. Smith in nickel. T. Smith is playing better than Whitehead though. Dean was a solid CB last year but he is playing a notch better but that could be correlated with more man play.
Voss isn't an upgrade in coverage but he is generating more TFLs.
Bucs are missing Kancey but they have Reddick/Nelson playing opposite of Diaby opposed to JTS.
Pressure and turnovers are up so talent on the field?
Bowles made tweaks to his scheme is the biggest change really.
Parrish is good but I wouldn't say he is that much better than T. Smith in nickel. T. Smith is playing better than Whitehead though. Dean was a solid CB last year but he is playing a notch better but that could be correlated with more man play.
Voss isn't an upgrade in coverage but he is generating more TFLs.
Bucs are missing Kancey but they have Reddick/Nelson playing opposite of Diaby opposed to JTS.
Thats an interesting way to look at it. I would describe it as GOOD play from rookie Parrish allows Smith to be almost a defensive MVP at safety, so that is a HUGE upgrade over Whitehead. Dean is playing MUCH better (3 INTS) because of MONEY and doing so a lot in zone (still), even though Bowles has run some man. And now when Dean is injured or tired they have Morrison. I dont think Josh Hayes has even seen the field as a DB? Funderbirk etc.
The addition of Riddick has, as you say, helped with pressure and SVD, but also basic competence in the backfield, which includes a fully healthy and play making AWJ.
Bowles has mixed things up some, but a lot of the defense is the same, just more effective. Still heavily cover 3, still plenty of zone blitzes etc.
I should've added that even though it has definitely helped to have Reddick on the other side, he's not individually generating a lot of sacks yet, so really they are generating more pressure (or sacks, maybe) in 2025 without some key FA adding to the count and even with no Kancey for 7-8 sacks.
Thats why i would attribute part of that to the backend and even ILB
SVD is definitely a liability in coverage, but so was White. Downhill though he's been doing much of what White did in 2020 (SVD with 2 sacks versus 3 or 4 by 2020 White, guessing). That and T Smith have helped the pressure. I think Smith has 2 sacks already, Whitehead was probably zero last season and his "strength" was supposed to be close to the line play.
A healthy AWJ has a sack, a FF and an INT and, obviously, could have had much more in the Sainst game. My guess would be this time 2024 he probably has nothing. Not only is he healthy in 2025 BUT he's also not having to cover the whole field to account for hayes, Funderbirk, even Whitehead etc.
In other words, its a DEFENSIVE UNIT (just like its an offensive unit), so when parts of it do not work the impact is MORE than the failure at the part. The same in reverse. When parts of it succeed (better back end play) it improved other areas.
On offense, the injuries/inconsistency in the O-line impact MORE because it causes Otton to stay in, limited run play selection etc. Same thing. DOMINOES
Right now the defense is tied for 13th in scoring. Depending on how you adjust for the special teams scores though the defense is more like top 10 in scoring (7th or 8th) and that is with GIVING UP 35 to the Seahawks.
Most of the other games are in the mid-to low 20s. I think the Eagles break 30 but with a ST play
To give that some perspective, at this time last season the defense was allowing roughly 27 PPG and was near the bottom of the league in scoring. Zero major EXTERNAL additions (Reddick the closest, I think?) and instead draft picks and relative health
I tend to agree BC - it’s why having both sides of the trenches capable of being dominant is key to complimentary football. I’ve heard Bowles, Grizz, Baker and LVD speak on it after & during the bye.
Both ‘units’ have to be healthy and playing dominant for this team to win. I don’t know if we’re ’there’ yet on offense. Players are rested, some (like Goedeke), but are they conditioned and healthy? We don’t have the confidence at WR we need to be competent. Defense looks to be in better shape, but unless they’re scoring (and we’re allowed to KEEP the scoring takeaways AWJ makes)…the offense is likely going to be limited the next 3 weeks.
Afterwards, if we can at least get JMac (maybe CG in some capacity) back, and Bucky… man this offense could look completely different.
Until then, it’s going to be brutal. Not to mention Baker’s still dealing with some nicks that may limit his scrambling and effectiveness.
Overall, we have pieces that will be coming back - so I have optimism - just don’t have high expectations for the next 3 games.
Right now the defense is tied for 13th in scoring. Depending on how you adjust for the special teams scores though the defense is more like top 10 in scoring (7th or 8th) and that is with GIVING UP 35 to the Seahawks.
Most of the other games are in the mid-to low 20s. I think the Eagles break 30 but with a ST play
To give that some perspective, at this time last season the defense was allowing roughly 27 PPG and was near the bottom of the league in scoring. Zero major EXTERNAL additions (Reddick the closest, I think?) and instead draft picks and relative health
Bowles is less predictable and the secondary is more talented. Great to see
