BUCCANEER BLITZ GOES INSIDE THE NUMBERS: HOW THE PATRIOTS APPROACHED 1ST DOWN AGAINST THE BUCS

For years, I’ve maintained that teams should throw against Coach Todd Bowles’ defense on first down. Bowles emphasizes run defense on these plays, often deploying his 3-4 personnel regardless of the offense’s alignment or personnel. A 3-4 setup features three defensive linemen, two outside linebackers, and two inside linebackers, making it better suited for run-heavy situations. This alignment isn’t ideal for pass coverage due to the personnel that is utilized, as the defensive linemen and outside linebackers are best at getting upfield. You don’t want to see players like Yaya Diaby, Haason Reddick, Anthony Nelson, and Chris Braswell covering in space, except for an occasional surprise drop.

The Patriots came in with a targeted plan for their first down plays against the Bucs, employing a simple numbers game. They started in Shotgun formation with both 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, and 3 WRs) and 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TEs, and 2 WRs) to gauge our defensive response. What did we do? That’s right—we rolled out our 3-4 personnel, which gave the Patriots a passing advantage. The defense would either drop one of their non-coverage outside linebackers into coverage or rush all five on-ball players (potentially blitzing another), creating a lot of room for the offense to exploit.

First Drive – First Down Alignments – 12 Personnel vs 3-4

The first play resulted in an 8-yard pass in a sweet spot that the Patriots targeted 5 or 6 times throughout the game when facing this 3-4 alignment on first down.

The Patriots’ second drive began from their own 5-yard line, where they needed to play it carefully to gain some yards on the ground. They managed to secure three first downs, but not due to successful first down plays. They came out in 13 personnel (1 RB and 3 TEs) and ran for just 1 yard on their first 1st down. The next two first down plays were out of 22 personnel (2 RBs and 2 TEs) and 21 personnel (2 RBs and 1 TE), both resulting in no gain. However, they were setting up something big.

Second Drive – First Down Alignments – 21 Personnel vs 3-4

On the first down play of the Patriots’ third drive, they returned to 21 personnel, maintaining the same look from their previous drive. Knowing we’d likely play single high man defense, as we had before, they executed a play-action pass and got their speedy receiver to beat Morrison on a crossing route and up the field for a 72 yard TD pass, tying the score, 7-7.

Third Drive – First Down Alignments – 21 Personnel vs 3-4 – Result… TD Pass

Later on, when the Patriots started with the ball in the second half, they again, came out in Shotgun 11 personnel.  We still rolled out our 3-4 personnel, but this time, rolled Anthony Nelson back, pre-snap.  See below.

Third Quarter – First Down Alignments – 11 Personnel vs 3-4 – Result… 18 yard Pass to sweet spot of defense.

This was an adjustment we made at halftime to them coming out like this on first down.  The problem is, we’re still not matching their personnel by dropping our OLB into coverage.  The solution should be to match their 11 personnel with Nickel personnel.  You take out a defensive linemen and bring in an extra defensive back.  Now you have a slot corner, Parrish, playing the curl zone Nelson would be in.  The Patriots took advantage of these numbers multiple times throughout the game.

This strategic approach highlights the effectiveness of the Patriots’ game plan against the Bucs and underscores the need for adjustments from our defense.  In the first half alone, the Patriots went 4-6 for 93 and 1 touchdown when throwing the ball on first day.  Versus, 6 runs for 5 yards on the ground on first downs.  The Bills and Rams would love to throw the ball on first down all game if this is the look we give them all day.