For years, I’ve maintained that teams should throw against Coach Todd Bowles’ defense on first down. Bowles emphasizes run defense on these plays, often deploying his 3-4 personnel regardless of the offense’s alignment or personnel. A 3-4 setup features three defensive linemen, two outside linebackers, and two inside linebackers, making it better suited for run-heavy situations. This alignment isn’t ideal for pass coverage due to the personnel that is utilized, as the defensive linemen and outside linebackers are best at getting upfield. You don’t want to see players like Yaya Diaby, Haason Reddick, Anthony Nelson, and Chris Braswell covering in space, except for an occasional surprise drop.
The Patriots came in with a targeted plan for their first down plays against the Bucs, employing a simple numbers game. They started in Shotgun formation with both 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, and 3 WRs) and 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TEs, and 2 WRs) to gauge our defensive response. What did we do? That’s right—we rolled out our 3-4 personnel, which gave the Patriots a passing advantage. The defense would either drop one of their non-coverage outside linebackers into coverage or rush all five on-ball players (potentially blitzing another), creating a lot of room for the offense to exploit.
First Drive – First Down Alignments – 12 Personnel vs 3-4
The first play resulted in an 8-yard pass in a sweet spot that the Patriots targeted 5 or 6 times throughout the game when facing this 3-4 alignment on first down.
The Patriots’ second drive began from their own 5-yard line, where they needed to play it carefully to gain some yards on the ground. They managed to secure three first downs, but not due to successful first down plays. They came out in 13 personnel (1 RB and 3 TEs) and ran for just 1 yard on their first 1st down. The next two first down plays were out of 22 personnel (2 RBs and 2 TEs) and 21 personnel (2 RBs and 1 TE), both resulting in no gain. However, they were setting up something big.
Second Drive – First Down Alignments – 21 Personnel vs 3-4
On the first down play of the Patriots’ third drive, they returned to 21 personnel, maintaining the same look from their previous drive. Knowing we’d likely play single high man defense, as we had before, they executed a play-action pass and got their speedy receiver to beat Morrison on a crossing route and up the field for a 72 yard TD pass, tying the score, 7-7.
Third Drive – First Down Alignments – 21 Personnel vs 3-4 – Result… TD Pass
Later on, when the Patriots started with the ball in the second half, they again, came out in Shotgun 11 personnel. We still rolled out our 3-4 personnel, but this time, rolled Anthony Nelson back, pre-snap. See below.
Third Quarter – First Down Alignments – 11 Personnel vs 3-4 – Result… 18 yard Pass to sweet spot of defense.
This was an adjustment we made at halftime to them coming out like this on first down. The problem is, we’re still not matching their personnel by dropping our OLB into coverage. The solution should be to match their 11 personnel with Nickel personnel. You take out a defensive linemen and bring in an extra defensive back. Now you have a slot corner, Parrish, playing the curl zone Nelson would be in. The Patriots took advantage of these numbers multiple times throughout the game.
This strategic approach highlights the effectiveness of the Patriots’ game plan against the Bucs and underscores the need for adjustments from our defense. In the first half alone, the Patriots went 4-6 for 93 and 1 touchdown when throwing the ball on first day. Versus, 6 runs for 5 yards on the ground on first downs. The Bills and Rams would love to throw the ball on first down all game if this is the look we give them all day.
The solution should be to match their 11 personnel with Nickel personnel. You take out a defensive linemen and bring in an extra defensive back
Great post.
The sentence above highlights the "simplicity" of basic football. IF you run the ball you can create a dilemma for the defense. The 72 yard TD pass is play action on 1st down and the threat of the run - because of formation, down and distance and scenario - sucks Smith right out of his primary responsibility (deep help for a ROOKIE).
This is why you hear coaches and players say "establish the run." It is converted to "mindlessly running into the line" by passing advocates, but the phrase means BALANCE. Its just that there are often more running opps early (score and d&d).
You also hear passing/analytic types deride running on 2nd and long as "playing for 3rd down" when its balance and down and distance that are the aim
The reality is the two things (running and passing) compliment each other. IT IS ALOS TGRUE THOUGH that IF the Patriots miss on all those low percentage scores the New England press and fans are calling for McDaniels head lol. "why the hell did he keep running it!"
A few years ago the run game was DEAD in the NFL. Pass, pass and pass . . . The running game is back though because the league is constantly in flux, offenses trying to change up against defensive tendencies.
Last season, a mostly healthy Bucs line won in the trenches CONSISTENTLY. This season (so far) a mostly unhealthy line has been unable to win in the trenches. We've still been finding ways to win. Its a tough way to win though. One game end like the the Texans game, the other like the Patriots game. Your QB gets hurt . . . done.
Here's a few stats about our play in the trenches:
2025 run game (rushing yards per game) - ranked 25th at 100ypg
2024 run game (rushing yard per game) - ranked 5th at 147 ypg
almost 50 yards of difference
2025 run game (rushing yards per attempt) - ranked 24th at 4 ypa
2024 run game (rushing yard per game) - ranked 3rd at 5.2ypa
ranked 21 spots lower
That is NOT play calling. That is:
Irving > White
Goedeke > Hecht
Mauch > both Gs (combinedlol)
health(ish) Wirfs > no knee Wirfs
Barton better at C
Kieft > no one
The only meaningful connection to play calling is that our current run game is 1st page of the book where our success in 2024 had Coen going way back to the index!
And that when you ruin that poorly, your offense is cut in half. You can win with half an offense maybe when you have the GOAT or Mayfield playing like an MVP, but when you do not?
Run game still matters . . we ran BETTER against the Pats AND we should have run more. Coen likely runs on two down 3rd and 3, but that is also partly because the O-line/run game is the strength of the 2024 offense. It is the WEAKEST LINK so far
You love making excuses for Grizz.
What's the PPG differential at this point? How many more possessions is Grizz getting from turnovers?
It's a large contrast when you take out defensive scores.
He's been given ample possessions... The alarming amount of three and outs.
The second baker stopped scrambling (zero attempts last 3 games) the offense stopped working. That's a direct correlation.
You love making excuses for Grizz.
So the flip of that would be you blame him for everything. I don't think you do but that's the sane effort to dismiss all the data.
I have said repeatedly that Grizz is not Coen but neither is play calling the primary issue.
by the way, remind me again whether you agreed or disagreed last season that injuries impacted the defense? That was "excuses" too, right? And yet this offseason they revamped the backend except for Egbuka now our WR1
Josh Hayes > Dean?
:-)
You love making excuses for Grizz.
So the flip of that would be you blame him for everything. I don't think you do but that's the sane effort to dismiss all the data.
I have said repeatedly that Grizz is not Coen but neither is play calling the primary issue.
by the way, remind me again whether you agreed or disagreed last season that injuries impacted the defense? That was "excuses" too, right? And yet this offseason they revamped the backend except for Egbuka now our WR1
Josh Hayes > Dean?
:-)
I've said injuries matter but they both have had them. I've also said Grizz pitched a few good games, especially the Seattle game.
I've also stated that Baker has struggled and missed open players so it's never one thing...
But the lions share imo goes to Grizz. He has us struggling on third down and the red zone. And he can't run the ball....and he's not particularly creative.
but that is also partly because the O-line/run game is the strength of the 2024 offense.
O-line/pass game was the strength of that offense.
Along with the play caller.
but that is also partly because the O-line/run game is the strength of the 2024 offense.
O-line/pass game was the strength of that offense.
Along with the play caller.
Coen has a very good passing game tending toward shorter, YAC extension of run game passing so much credit to him, but definitely disagree and i think so does Coen. Coen's thing - the foundation of the offense - is run game (pony package etc) and that's pretty clear when you look at this
2023 YPA Rushing: 3.6 ranked LAST in the league
2024 YPA Rushing: 5.2 ranked THIRD in the league
I think we are back down to 4.0 , but it was 3.8 before the Pats game.
Part of that is OF COURSE having a NASTY, PHYSICAL OFFENSIVE LINE and eleven guys blocking (the OPPOSITE of what the Bucs have had most of this season).
This is Coen as JAGS head coach talking about the key transformation of the Bucs the year before as a model for the Jags:
"Coen discussed extensively that buy-in, noting how Buccaneers Hall-of-Fame wide receiver Mike Evans played selflessly in the run game, "digging out of the front side of runs." and spoke of a strong running game being critical to the entire team's chances of success.
"It first started with their willingness and openness, and a little bit of humility to not want to be at the bottom anymore," Coen said. "That was the reality. They wanted more from themselves. They wanted a different respect level around their peers and around the NFL.
"All we did was come in with the mindset of it takes all 11 to get better in the run game. Those guys knew it had to happen."
The most celebrated offensive player for the Bucs last season? Bucky Irving. The story of the season is his coming on and running for almost 6 YPC. The biggest difference in the offense this year over last: No Irving and ZERO continuity on the O-line.
****
The biggest difference Coen made with the Jaguars offense is run game. This is how their own team website defines their IDENTITY:
"The Jacksonville Jaguars' offense has been inconsistent this season, mired by penalties and a general lack of execution, especially from their pass-catchers who have committed multiple backbreaking drops throughout the year. However, their running game has been a strength they've been able to lean on.
Through eight games, they're averaging 123.6 yards per game on the ground, good for 11th in the NFL. They're also 11th in yards per carry. In their two-game skid to the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Rams, they weren't able to find success with their rushing attack, which was a big reason for the losses.
AND NOW OM A BIT OF A SLUMP, JUST LAST WEEK THIS WAS COEN:
"Run, Run, Run
“Yeah, I’ve got to call more runs in general. When we run the football, we're a little bit more balanced," Coen said on Monday when asked about the fine line in being committed and stubborn with the running game.
"Anytime you're more balanced you have the defense on their toes, so it's a matter of like you said, winning first and second down. When you start drives and you have a run, you get a hold and your first and 20 now I'm probably not going to run it on first, who knows? But you're trying to just look for the balance and when you're able to run the football, you see around the league all day yesterday, points being scored and when you can run the ball and be effective running the football, it's something that we've got to get back to being able to do a little bit more.”
I HAVE NOT LOOKED . . but I know the Bucs 3rd down conversion rate is down. I would think that is because they are not "winning first and second down." Mayfiled suggested as much at the podium.
O-line/pass game was the strength of that offense.
ESPN article featuring Hainsey and attributing the run success to SCHEME
"There isn't much difference in personnel, either. Hainsey and right guard Patrick Mekari, who signed in March after six seasons in Baltimore, are the only new starters on the offensive line. Running back Tank Bigsby, last season's leading rusher, was traded to Philadelphia the day after the season opener, which left Etienne and rookies Bhayshul Tuten and LeQuint Allen Jr. as the top three backs.
Everyone else is back from the past several seasons.
The biggest difference is Coen's run scheme, which mixes zone and gap blocking plays, features different runs out of similar formations and uses motion and shifts to create confusion. More importantly, though, is that Coen tailors it around what the players do well.
"It's more just within the scheme having plays off of plays and so that maybe it's less thinking for those guys up front and it's more of the same, but maybe different presentations while also saying, OK, we want to be able to run inside or midzone with a little bit more," Coen said. "So, it's just different ways of keeping your run game diverse so that [defenses] don't get a beat on just you're trying to run it inside every time or outside every time. A mix of zone and gap helps those guys so that when they're hitting blocks, the defense isn't sure if it's going to be zone or gap, to them, or away from them."
the title of that article is
Liam Coen has revived the Jaguars' run game
Coen has a very good passing game tending toward shorter, YAC extension of run game passing so much credit to him, but definitely disagree and i think so does Coen.
Coen had an ELITE passing game that worked the short and intermediate areas of the field.
2024 RUSH RANKINGS
YARDS - 4th
POINTS SCORED - 14th
2024 PASS RANKINGS
YARDS - 3rd
POINTS SCORED - 2nd
Again, the O-Line and PASS GAME was the strength of the offense (as well as an elite play caller).
Coen has a very good passing game tending toward shorter, YAC extension of run game passing so much credit to him, but definitely disagree and i think so does Coen.
Coen had an ELITE passing game that worked the short and intermediate areas of the field.
2024 RUSH RANKINGS
YARDS - 4th
POINTS SCORED - 14th
2024 PASS RANKINGS
YARDS - 3rd
POINTS SCORED - 2nd
Again, the O-Line and PASS GAME was the strength of the offense (as well as an elite play caller).
Yep, you may be right but I disagree. But we are now discussing different things and I think that is probably down to a fundamental difference in how we see football
Anyway, your take would make Coen the first (maybe only?) McVay tree offense guy who did NOT build an offense around "illusion of complexity" even though that was Coen's SIGNATURE when he was here and now with the Jags.
Its also what people (should) see missing MOST in the Bucs current offense, as opposed to throwing the ball. Even Bowles pointed that out yesterday and the Oline is obviously the focal point. I think we were 145 yards per game last year and below 100 this year, maybe until the Pats game.
Coen has a very good passing game tending toward shorter, YAC extension of run game passing so much credit to him, but definitely disagree and i think so does Coen.
Coen had an ELITE passing game that worked the short and intermediate areas of the field.
2024 RUSH RANKINGS
YARDS - 4th
POINTS SCORED - 14th
2024 PASS RANKINGS
YARDS - 3rd
POINTS SCORED - 2nd
Again, the O-Line and PASS GAME was the strength of the offense (as well as an elite play caller).
Yep, you may be right but I disagree. But we are now discussing different things and I think that is probably down to a fundamental difference in how we see football
Anyway, your take would make Coen the first (maybe only?) McVay tree offense guy who did NOT build an offense around "illusion of complexity" even though that was Coen's SIGNATURE when he was here and now with the Jags.
Its also what people (should) see missing MOST in the Bucs current offense, as opposed to throwing the ball. Even Bowles pointed that out yesterday and the Oline is obviously the focal point. I think we were 145 yards per game last year and below 100 this year, maybe until the Pats game.
The revolving door at OL is the biggest issue. Cant get any continuity when guys are shuffling every game. Last year it was pretty much the same group all year. This year its a different group just about every week. Add in the injuries at the skill positions Bucky/Evans/Godwin/McMillan, and a step down in OC its not surprising they are struggling as much as they are
The revolving door at OL is the biggest issue. Cant get any continuity when guys are shuffling every game. Last year it was pretty much the same group all year. This year its a different group just about every week.
This
If you believe that football is most often won in the trenches and that the best offenses try to present defenses with a dilemma between run or pass, then you might see the O-line shuffling as the more obvious difference in outcomes. As you say, throw in the skill position injuries and and it gets worse.
And I would say it renders the year over year comparisons a little fuzzy to maybe even meaningless. That doesn't mean Grizz is Coen, it just means that the side by side is tough UNDER THE CURRENT CIRCUMSTANCES
