Tampa Bay Buccaneers hope to hit jackpot on draft day By ALAN DELL[email protected]April 25, 2015 
In this Jan. 1, 2015, file photo, Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota, center left, greets Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston after Oregon's win in the Rose Bowl NCAA college football playoff semifinal game in Pasadena, Calif. There will be several noticeable absences when the three-day draft starts Thursday night, including potential top picks. Winston, Mariota and Alabama wide receiver Amari Cooper all plan to skip the spotlight. MARK J. TERRILL — AP TAMPAThe NFL Draft is just four days away, and the Tampa Bay Bucs have to be feeling like a kid on Christmas morning.You know you are going to get some nice gifts, but you just don't know if the excitement will wear off early.The current Bucs regime has made its share of blunders and hopes turning around a struggling franchise could rest on the shoulders of a soon-to-be-rookie quarterback.History has not been kind to highly touted college quarterbacks finding quick success in the NFL.But there is a guy named Jameis Winston, whom Bucs head coach Lovie Smith and GM Jason Licht say they adore. They haven't said they will pick him, but if they don't this will be the biggest smokescreen Dale Mabry has ever witnessed.You want to feel comfortable but are having a tough go of it.You look at the track record Lovie and Jason built last year and that pit in your stomach churns. You remember Anthony Collins, Michael Johnson and Lovie's pet, Josh McCown.You know if the Bucs don't improve their offensive line, it won't matter who plays quarterback, even the famous Johnnies and Joes in their prime: Unitas, Elway and Montana.This is the lying season in the NFL and you don't know whom to believe. Those NFL types predicting Winston is more than likely to be a bust is a concern, though you have to look at it from various angles.They could be lying in hopes the Bucs go in a different direction and they get a chance to pick the FSU quarterback. But Lovie and Jason have gone down the tunnel of love with Jameis and are at the point of no return.The track record of NFL first-round quarterbacks is unpredictable. Their success is very dependent on the system they play in and their teammates.Then there are the sleepers, who add more confusion.When the Bucs won the 2003 Super Bowl, their quarterback was Brad Johnson, a ninth-round draft choice who was never a full-time starter at FSU and threw just 14 career TD passes in college.The Bucs also were coming off the 2002 draft in which they did not have a first- or second-round pick. That is the irony of the Bucs draft history.Johnson proved what you have around the quarterback is crucial.Of the 12 quarterbacks drafted first overall in the last 20 years, only Peyton and Eli Manning, Cam Newton and Andrew Luck have won playoff games.The list of those who failed to meet expectations is long, but there are some, like Johnson, who had solid, if not spectacular, careers, though it took awhile.A scary thought is that FSU coach Jimbo Fischer was the offensive coordinator for all-time bust JaMarcus Russell at LSU and coached Christian Ponder and E.J. Manuel, quarterbacks picked in the first round who are struggling.The NFL is littered with first-round quarterback busts. Among the most recent are Russell, Vince Young (third overall), Mark Sanchez (fifth), Blaine Gabbert (10th) and Brady Quinn (22nd).On the other hand, the NFL has successful quarterbacks who were drafted late. Everyone likes to mention Tom Brady (sixth round), but there are others: Joe Montana (third), Roger Staubach (10th) and Bart Starr (17th).And you can get a quarterback who can give you solid years, if not hall of fame numbers, in the later rounds: Rich Gannon (fourth round) and Joe Theismann (fourth round plus 3 years in CFL), who made two Super Bowl appearances and won a Super Bowl. Matt Hasselbeck and Marc Bulger (sixth-rounders) and fifth-rounder Mark Brunell were guys who could more than hold the fort down.As the 27th pick in the 1983 draft, Dan Marino wasn't a bad choice. And if the Bucs didn't trade away their first-round pick in that draft, they might have gotten Marino, but that's another story that has haunted this franchise for more than three decades.Many say Jeff George (first overall pick in 1990) had the best arm of any quarterback, but had a mediocre career. Jay Cutler, whom Lovie coached in Chicago, has not turned his talent into success on the field, experts say.Kurt Warner and Warren Moon are two success stories who took an unconventional route to the NFL.Alan Dell, Herald sports writer, can be reached at 941-745-7056. Follow him on Twitter @ADellSports. link
