https://www.pewterreport.com/bucs-late-snap-issue-what-happened/
what an article! hits it right on the head
Doubt Bowles gets fired, but a 1 win improvement, and immediate out in the home playoff game - against a rookie QB - means something needs to change.Bowles or no Bowles there are some defensive PERSONNEL changes coming
Yep.
And, there needs to be an infusion of new assistants on the defensive side of the ball.
Agreed. I know SR has been saying this all season.
Problem is, Bowles is an extreme loyalist to “his guys”. Both players and coaches.
Something is about to give.
agreed again. Will be interesting to see it play out.
This was Licht last night, I guess
"“It’s a good time to be a Buc,” Licht said. “We’re doing a lot of great things, the entire organization. A lot of stability has helped. Obviously, great players, great coaching. So it’s an exciting time.”
and the is the PR draft profiue this morning listing positions of need:
Inside LB
Outside LB
Safety
CB
DT
WR
so, basically an ENTIRE defense lol
Licht makes those comments and still some expecting Bowles to get fired
like i said, the dudes closer to having a statue built, maybe even have his opening 3rd quarter comments on it!
i'm all for replacing Bowles but let's not blow our loads and think it's Coen just yet. Offense choked last night in a big game. It's learning experience.
Belichick has shown that without talent, dudes a losing coach
Tomlin has shown that without talent, i can get you 9 wins but without a QB, we are losing first round
The team lacked talent on defense because there was only so much money to go around. Sure they missed on a few in the draft, but that dead cap space is what is saving Bowles job. Bucs have played with house money these last 2 years. Next year, the pressure will be on Bowles because i expect Bowles to land a big free agency defender, spend top picks on defense.
Bucs make playoffs, and lose in first round next year, Bowles is not the coach in 2026....but you are wishful thinking if you think Bowles is out this year. I could be wrong, maybe Tomlin or Bill B become available and Bucs make a splash...but it wouldnt be for Coen.
If anything, and maybe it's bittersweet benefit, but Coen just likely lost any real head coaching opportunities with last nights performance. He'll get the Jaguars interview but they likely shoot for a bigger name.
I read Licht’s comments, believe they could be interpreted as selling some sunshine in order to put a positive spin on an upcoming move.
Could be wrong, but I doubt anyone in the front office will allow Coen to get out of the building.
1 win improvement with a harder schedule, better division (most pundits had falcons winning it), no chris godwin (while we all agree bowles was an idiot for having him in, unlikley owners/Jason see it that way), and worst defensive talent (effectively didnt replace White, Barrett, or Davis)
while we should have beat the Commanders and it's disappointing, the expectations of management and fans are likely 2 different things. They study the team more than any of us and am sure were aware of their limitations (defensive talent) heading into the season with $60 million of dead cap space.
how do you think the players on the team will react if Bowles were to get fired? Likely wouldnt go over to well. Barton would likely need to see a shrink.
lol - did he really say that?
Take away the defensive woes with him as DC. The shit we've seen from him as HC only is enough of a reason to move on. We can go 9-8 and 10-7 every year, but this dude will never win anything beyond the division.
His quote.
Not to mention this banger coming out of the half:
"He keeps getting out of the pocket to his left. To his, our left. His left. I mean, our left, his right."
”bUiLd hIm a sTaTuE aNd eXtEnD hIM”
Bill Barnwell agrees:
I really like Todd Bowles. He's an excellent, creative defensive coach. His players seem to like playing for him. And after winning a Super Bowl with the Bucs as Bruce Arians' defensive coordinator, he has won three straight division titles in the NFC South as Tampa Bay's coach. Any coach who wins three division titles in three years is succeeding.
I just wish Bowles would manage his timeouts better. He seems to have a lot of the difficult elements of coaching down. Timeout usage, which should be one of the easiest things to understand and integrate into game-day efforts, does not seem to be one of them. The Bucs mismanaged the clock in the final two minutes in both halves of Sunday's narrow loss to the Commanders.
The first mistake didn't come back to bite them. After Baker Mayfield hit Mike Evans for a 20-yard completion to get the Bucs into the red zone, it seemed obvious they would use one of their two remaining timeouts. Instead, Mayfield hurried to the line and seemed ready to call another play, only for Bowles to call a timeout from the sideline. The indecisiveness ended up yielding the worst of both worlds, with the Bucs letting 10 seconds run off the clock and allowing the Commanders a chance to collect themselves and get a defensive call in.
Fortunately for the Bucs, Evans drew a pass interference call on the next snap and caught a touchdown pass one play later. This was a mistake borne out of fear, that they were holding onto timeouts in case they needed them. By the time Bowles let 10 seconds run off the clock, they had already cost themselves at least one play on offense, if not two. Using a final timeout in that spot would make sense, since it's a moment in which a coach knows he'll need a timeout as opposed to potentially never having a better moment to use it. Not using a second timeout is an obvious mistake.
A similar mistake popped up on the defensive side of the ball later. After Austin Ekeler caught a lob over Yaya Diaby for 18 yards to set the Commanders up in field goal range, the play ended with 1:53 to go. Bowles let 12 more seconds run off the clock before using his first timeout. Again, there's no middle ground where this makes sense. He needs to use his timeouts to try to get the ball back with a stop, because his team's season is probably over if the Commanders run the clock down and kick. Preserving as much time as possible for that potential game-tying drive from Mayfield & Co. is critical. Letting 12 seconds run off the clock is inexcusable.
This only came close to mattering. On a third-and-2 with 55 seconds to go, Calijah Kancey nearly wrapped up Jayden Daniels in the backfield for a tackle that would have forced Washington to kick a field goal and hand the ball back to the Buccaneers. Those missing 12 extra seconds would have been critical. Instead, Kancey wasn't able to tackle Daniels, who ran for a first down. The Commanders kicked their field goal with three seconds left and won.
And for Bowles, unfortunately, this isn't new. Trailing by seven points in the final minute against the Chiefs earlier this season, he took a timeout after a 19-yard completion set the Bucs up with a first-and-goal opportunity and 33 seconds left. All that did was ensure his team had to throw the ball from that point forward, and while Mayfield hit Ryan Miller for a touchdown two plays later, the stopped clock gave Kansas City an opportunity to drive for a potential game winner at the end of regulation.
In 2022, with the Bucs up 17-10 and the Browns facing a fourth-and-9 from the 13-yard line with 1:12 to go, Bowles didn't use one of his timeouts to stop the clock. A timeout would have both given the Bucs a chance to set their defense and to potentially try and launch a drive to take the lead with Tom Brady if the Browns scored on fourth down, which is exactly what happened. Instead, 30 seconds ran off the clock. The ensuing Bucs drive stalled at midfield because of a lack of time, and the Browns won the game in overtime.
Were the timeouts the primary reason the Bucs lost? No. Mayfield fumbled an exchange deep in his own territory, and the Commanders converted a fourth-down pass to Terry McLaurin for a score to take the lead. On the next drive, center Graham Barton appeared to snap the ball to Mayfield prematurely, turning a third-and-1 from the Tampa 12-yard line into a busted play. In position to both bleed clock and potentially win the game with a touchdown, Tampa Bay kicked a field goal to tie the game at 20. Its offense never got to touch the ball again.
Coaches can't suddenly manifest somebody out of thin air who can cover McLaurin, however. They can't dial up a blitz that works 100% of the time or tackle Daniels without fail. They can't ensure their quarterback succeeds on every exchange without fumbling. That stuff is out of anyone's control. Getting timeouts right? That should be easy.
Right? This is where "analytics" has to give way to the real world?
The real world played out MULTIPLE TIMES this season,
so you guys are talking about Bowles generally, like above, and I have been talking about the game. Thats th first disconnect.The thread is the game thread so thats why I was focused on that.
And I am not sure about the Loser mentality" stuff when Biggs own "analytics" make that point I walked through before. And anyway, analytics ONLY say what the hypothetical outcomes should be over time. In other words, they may support a HC taking a certain approach over time, like Campbell with the Lions. I dont think thre is an analytic for going for it on 4th down in that game (ie with 5 minutes to go, two bad plays etc)
Hopefully everyone would agree that it is NOT coincidence that Barton (a rookie) has the snap problem and Mayfield has a timing problem and McMillan drops a pass in the first drive (because hes trying to run with it). All pressure related. Details going by the wayside
Here's the thing... Coen can scheme people open on offense where as Lefty couldn't and Canales rarely did... So you're getting a coach who can take practice squad players and SCORE. He proved that in multiple games. No excuses still scored and moved the ball with the players he had.
Bowles on the other hand cannot. The chess match part of the game he loses over and over. Whether that's the play calling or player executions that's all on him.
His blitzes don't work. They just don't. And Washington figured it out. So he could have faked a blitz then guarded the flat... Instead he lost over and over on 3rd and 4th down because play callers KNOW what he will do.
Or in other words the sun of our parts is not greater than each piece added up individually.
Where as Coen gets the most out of the players.
Bowles can't get the defense off the field. He was decent in the red zone but ultimately we lost because the offense had very limited opportunities to do anything and WHEN WE DID he chose fgs over 4th downs.
All of that scream to me that Bowles is the biggest culprit of why we lost.
Not the Baker fumble (because the defense can't force turnovers), not the Barton snap... It was limited possessions and unable to get stops on critical 3rd and 4th down plays
Hopefully everyone would agree that it is NOT coincidence that Barton (a rookie) has the snap problem and Mayfield has a timing problem and McMillan drops a pass in the first drive (because hes trying to run with it). All pressure related. Details going by the wayside
Again it's why I wanted JPJ over him. He's not a true center so the hike yips were prevalent all year.
He could long term play out better than JPJ... hard to tell after one year when one plays with an elite play caller and the other plays for the effing Raiders and they keep moving him from guard to center to the bench etc.
But Barton's snaps are well documented and unsurprising.
And I am not sure about the Loser mentality" stuff when Biggs own "analytics" make that point I walked through before. And anyway, analytics ONLY say what the hypothetical outcomes should be over time. In other words, they may support a HC taking a certain approach over time, like Campbell with the Lions. I dont think thre is an analytic for going for it on 4th down in that game (ie with 5 minutes to go, two bad plays etc)
This is because you don't know what you're talking about. You've never understood advanced analytics and your posts prove you still don't. If you still don't understand that these analytics incorporate the game situations, I doubt you ever will.
The Buccaneers should have gone for it while they had the chance.
They had the opportunity to tie or go for it on fourth-and-3 at the Washington 14-yard line with 4:45 to go and kicked a tying field goal to make it 20-20. ESPN Analytics disagreed with that decision, having their win probability at 46.1% (57.4% chance to convert) if going for it, whereas their win probability with a field goal was 43.6% with a 93.2% chance to make the field goal.
This is the analytics for going for it on 4th down in that game, in that situation. Just because you don't understand that doesn't mean it's not the case. As simple as I can put it for the simpleton, the analytics say you have a higher probability of winning the football game if you go for it on fourth down vs. kicking the FG. This isn't my opinion, it's what those in the real world call a "fact."
String post away, gas bag.
[in Coen] you're getting a coach who can take practice squad players and SCORE. He proved that in multiple games.
?
This is the analytics for going for it on 4th down in that game, in that situation.
Is that objective or subjective?
Let's see . . (down +distance - confidence level with prior failures + time remaining)/who knows what? =
cool . .
String post away, gas bag.
Biggs code for "i think I am wrong so stop"
peace out
This is because you don't know what you're talking about. You've never understood advanced analytics and your posts prove you still don't. If you still don't understand that these analytics incorporate the game situations, I doubt you ever wil
BIGGS, if there is one thing you do here more than most its calling other people dumb ("you don't know what you're talking about") while being WRONG.
One example of many. This one is from ESPN analytics:
"NFL coaches make tough fourth-down and 2-point conversion decisions on every game day. Quantitative analysis can inform those decisions, both for those making calls on the sideline and fans evaluating their coach's decision-making.
So what do analytics tell us about these choices? Well, it's complicated. Is there a cheat sheet that could help show the correct decisions? No and yes.
There is not a simple answer because the permutations of game-management decisions in football are endless."
and if you read the article it lays out ESPN's model and then includes this:
"The following represents a guide to ESPN's decision analysis recommendations based on typical situations. Those are when teams are still in the point maximization phase of the game. Think of it this way: A normal game in the first half or even early in the third quarter, where teams are within two scores of each other.
Note that in any specific game, ESPN's recommendations might deviate from this chart even early because one team entered as a major underdog or there is a severe offense/defense mismatch between the two teams playing. Late in the game, the circumstances can cause recommendations that are significantly different, of course.
AND EVEN THIS DISCLAIMER
"The chart below details the recommended decision (go, field goal attempt or punt) in a typical situation given a specific yard line and distance to first down:
"The first thing you might notice when looking at this chart is that there is a lot more "go" area than expected. Indeed, ESPN's model is more aggressive on fourth downs than the average coach. In fact, our model recommends a go on fourth-and-1 in typical situations anywhere on the field."
that last part is because they are trying to "correct" for what they see as OVERLY conservative choice by coaches
[in Coen] you're getting a coach who can take practice squad players and SCORE. He proved that in multiple games.
?
While Godwin and Evans were out (due to Bowles choices) we were still able to score featuring Otton, Bucky, and White....+ shepard and whatever other crap players we threw out there.
[in Coen] you're getting a coach who can take practice squad players and SCORE. He proved that in multiple games.
?
While Godwin and Evans were out (due to Bowles choices) we were still able to score featuring Otton, Bucky, and White....+ shepard and whatever other crap players we threw out there.
Ryan Miller would qualify as a PS player who scored (2) touchdowns.
For me where I lost faith last night was when Bowles let 30ish seconds run off the clock before the final 2 min warning...They were still outside FG range if memory serves they got the stop and the clock just ran...I was talking out loud saying TIME OUT TIME OUT! you force them to run a play and get the stoppage at 2:00 and come back and it's likely 3rd down with a TO or two still in your pocket...and yet the clock just ran...I think once it got down to around 2:05 I said out loud "we're going to play soft zone and play for OT or they're going to convert and run the clock and kick a FG" the rest is history...in that moment the end of last years playoff game against the Lions and the anger came rushing back...At the end of the day coach is just too content to play for OT rather than playing to win and putting pressure on the other team.
Bowles is coaching like he has an elite defense.
