The 6 NFL teams that would look much different if the Eli Manning-Philip Rivers trade never happened
No team should be happier than the Saints that the trade actually happened.
By Adam Stites Jun 26, 2019, 8:00am
Sometimes, one play, one moment, one decision can change everything — or maybe only a little bit. Either way, it can be fun to imagine the various timelines if one thing had gone differently. SB Nation NFL is looking at those hypotheticals, alternate universes, and made-up scenarios in our second annual “What If?” week.
The 2004 NFL Draft began with the Chargers taking Eli Manning with the No. 1 pick, despite the quarterback’s objection to playing in San Diego. A few picks later, the Giants took Philip Rivers and the players were swapped in a blockbuster trade.
It took a delicate negotiation between executives A.J. Smith and Ernie Accorsi to get the deal done — and it could’ve easily fallen apart if not for some clever subterfuge and brokering.
Had the trade not happened, the NFL would look much different today. That’s even the case for the Steelers, who sat tight at No. 11 overall and landed the third passer off the board, Ben Roethlisberger.
Accorsi, who was the Giants general manager at the time, says he wouldn’t have picked Rivers if he didn’t already know a trade with the Chargers was about to go down. He would’ve drafted Roethlisberger instead.
“We had it Manning, [Ben] Roethlisberger, Rivers,” Accorsi told SB Nation 15 years after the trade. “We liked all of them — it’s just that was the way we had them rated. We didn’t think we could lose.”
Then-Chargers general manager Smith said if no deal transpired with the Giants, he would’ve been fine with letting Manning follow through on a threat to sit out his entire rookie year. That would’ve set up the quarterback for an unprecedented re-entry into the draft in 2005.
That scenario didn’t unfold because the Giants offered up 2004 third-, 2005 first-, and 2005 fifth-round picks to swap quarterbacks. But what if New York’s proposition for Manning hadn’t been good enough?
Let’s imagine a world where the Chargers take Manning with the top pick and don’t offload him to New York. The ripple effect would’ve significantly changed the future of at least six franchises across the NFL.
2004
Chargers
Your first thought — it would’ve been mine too — is probably “the Chargers would’ve just traded Manning somewhere else.” But Smith says that wouldn’t have been the case. He told Chargers owner Dean Spanos ahead of the draft that he was going to give the Giants a chance to make a trade happen and that’s it.
“If they can’t, I’d just say I have some bad news — if it doesn’t work to our liking then we’ll just be out a first-round draft pick,” Smith told SB Nation.
So let’s take him at face value and assume the Chargers really don’t trade Manning. That means they don’t get the 2004 third-round pick that turned into Nate Kaeding or the 2005 first-round pick that eventually became Shawne Merriman. Most importantly, they don’t get Rivers.
The silver lining is that, like in real life, Drew Brees has a breakout year after a 2004 offseason full of drama. He posts a 104.8 passer rating and becomes the first Chargers quarterback since Dan Fouts to go to the Pro Bowl.
Manning follows through on his threat and never shows up to join the Chargers. Still, San Diego has reason to feel optimistic about the quarterback position now that Brees has emerged as a star.
Giants
After a potential trade with the Chargers falls through, New York sticks to its draft board and selects Roethlisberger instead.
Despite coming from the MAC, Roethlisberger is surprisingly adept as a rookie after replacing Kurt Warner halfway through the season. He’s efficient enough to take over the 5-4 Giants and finish the year 9-7 — good enough for a Wild Card Round berth. (Manning wasn’t as successful in the real world, losing his first six starts to end the year 6-10.)
The Giants make an early exit from the postseason, though.
Steelers
The Steelers wind up with the third quarterback off the board in 2004: Rivers. He starts the season third on the depth chart behind Tommy Maddox and Charlie Batch, but — unlike in San Diego, where he would’ve sat behind Brees — it doesn’t take long for Rivers to be tossed into action.
He inherits the best defense in the NFL and the strong rushing duo of Jerome Bettis and Duce Staley. Despite Rivers’ rookie inefficiencies, Pittsburgh is still really good and cruises to an AFC North title. Then the Steelers run into the Patriots in the playoffs and a promising season ends early.
2005
49ers
San Francisco faces an interesting choice in 2005. Do the 49ers take Utah’s Alex Smith, Cal’s Aaron Rodgers, or gamble that the top prospect of 2004, Manning, is just as talented after a year away from the game?
Private workouts convince the 49ers that Manning is still a special player and worthy of the No. 1 pick. It doesn’t hurt either that his brother Peyton is now the back-to-back NFL MVP.
Instead of picking Smith, the 49ers roll the dice on Manning. Unfortunately for San Francisco, he struggles through a rough rookie year on a team that’s bad at just about everything.
Buccaneers
Buccaneers coach Jon Gruden passes on Rodgers because he’s a system player, or a Kyle Boller clone, or some other reason that will eventually look hilariously dumb in hindsight. But with the chance to draft Alex Smith, Gruden resists his temptation to take a running back and snags a passer instead.
Smith is in a pretty favorable situation in Tampa Bay with a top defense. He’s just not much different than third-year quarterback Chris Simms (who actually started when the Buccaneers picked running back Cadillac Williams in 2005). Tampa Bay gets to the postseason with Smith starting, but loses in the Wild Card Round.
Packers
For some reason, nobody seems to want Rodgers. The Packers pick him No. 24 overall with the hope that he’ll eventually take over for Brett Favre. Maybe it’ll work out.
2006
Saints
Six years of Aaron Brooks is more than enough time for the Saints to figure out that he’s not their quarterback of the future. But solving the issue in free agency isn’t much of an option after the Chargers lock down Brees with a big extension. That leaves Jon Kitna and Jeff Garcia as the top veteran options.
New Orleans tries patching things with Kitna and gets predictably mediocre results. He isn’t terrible, but the Saints only finish 6-10 and miss the postseason.
2007
Saints
New Orleans knows that Kitna — who’s soon to turn 35 — isn’t the future either. So when they get a chance to trade up a bit and draft Brady Quinn in the middle of the first round, they jump at the opportunity. He sits for a while behind Kitna, but never quite pans out. It’s the beginning of a frustrating decade or so that has nothing close to a Super Bowl run.
The Saints become a revolving door of bad quarterbacks — just like the Browns, who can’t escape their fate even if they avoid drafting Quinn.
To recap the QB situations:
So here’s how six teams look at the quarterback in an NFL where the Manning-Rivers trade doesn’t exist.
Chargers: Drew Brees
Steelers: Philip Rivers
Giants: Ben Roethlisberger
49ers: Eli Manning
Buccaneers: Alex Smith
Saints: Jon Kitna Brady Quinn a bunch of other bad quarterbacks
