Where do the Bucs stand?
How the Bucs do in FootabllOutsider's DVOA rankings. A quick reminder DVOA is more a measure of efficiency. For example: a two yard run on 3rd and 2 is better than a two yard run on 1st and 10.
A short definition of DVOA at the bottom or here: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#dvoa
I include some PFF grades. Keep in mind PFF is a grading system specific to PFF, while FO takes a stats and situational based approach. They are complementary and not examining the same thing.
TEAM EFFICIENCY
Bucs are 20th (18th last week). Below Indy and just above NO and ATL. The Bucs (see below) are expected to finish last in the division behind both NO (NFCS winners) and ATL. This reflects the easier part of the Bucs schedule - that they whiffed.
What drags them down is the offense (26th, last week 31st). The passing offense is particularly inefficient (26th) and the run game is average (13th).
Even after last week the Bucs defense is top 10. Honestly, after the last two years that's crazy. We'll see where they are Week 17, but I said anything above ~25 was a big win for Bowles. Currently, the Bucs D is 7th!!! (last week 4th). 13th in pass defense and 2nd in rush defense.
My guess is we'll see these numbers come closer together. Teams will pick more on the Bucs secondary (dragging down the defense) while the Bucs passing game improves.
And as has been the case for years and years the Bucs special teams stinks. 31st. Koetter always had bad ST, and Arians did in Arizona. Field goals and punt returns are performing especially poorly while kick returns and punting are just below average. Luckily the Bucs wasted a 3rd round comp pick on that below average punter...
INDIVIDUAL UNITS
Winston is a terrible 29th in DVOA and 31st in DYAR (27th in QBR) - right below Mariota and above Mason Rudolph. Only 3 game starters worse are Mayfield and Murray (and the Fitz/Rosen combo). This jives with PFF where his 53.7 is 30th. This number will climb and Winston will likely end around league average (as he does every year). His week 3 performance was obviously his best, just for Week 3 he was 11th in DVOA.
DVOA hated Barber last year, being one of the lowest rated RBs. They attempt to separate RB performance from OL performance. Barber comes in at 28th with a "success rate" of 45% (30th). Success rate measures how the RB did given what was needed on that down 1st and 10 setting up 2nd and med/short, or converting 3rd down. PFF has Barber's 66.6 grade at 28th.
They value RoJo much higher, 13th in DYAR and 8th DVOA (DYAR=total value, DVOA=value per play). He's 3rd in success rate with 61%. Both of these stats suggest, heaven forbid, RoJo gets the ball more. PFF values RoJo a little higher, his 80.4 being 4th. This likely is his ridiculous 81.6 receiving grade on only two targets.
Howard and Brate are not performing, coming in at 24th and 41st respectively. ie. Brate, even in limited reps, is performing poorly per FO. PFF disagrees with Brate's 71.3 being 14th, Howard's 45.4 grade is 63rd.
Godwin ranks well, 8th in both DYAR and DVOA. Again, suggesting his total value and per-play value are high. Evans not quite as good, 20th in DYAR and 29th in DVOA suggesting his play hasn't been very efficient. Last year Evans was 4th in both but has ping-ponged in efficiency. His 50% catch rate is hurting him.
The Bucs OL ranks 12th in adjusted line yards with 4.67. This is a HUGE jump from last year, visible both by FO and on tape. The Bucs have had success getting to the second level but have struggled mightily in short yardage situations ranking 28th. Overall 20% of runs have been stuffed (21st). For context the 2018 Bucs were 27th or worse in everything except short yardage which was 22nd.
The vast majority of Bucs success comes running behind LT and in the middle. Either end or RT are bad.
FO's pass blocking stats aren't as advance, they're ranked by adjusted sack rate per pass, down, and opponent. They're 27th. The pass/run blocking is an inversion of the last couple of years.
DL stats are an inversion of the OL's, and Bucs are 3rd in rush defense with elite play across the board (adjust line yards, short yardage, stuffs, 2nd level, open field, etc.). Bucs are average, thanks to Shaq, in pass rush at 15th.
DRIVE STATS
This is a useful way to evaluate what's happening every drive. Separates out some of the chaff - such as one offense getting 9 drives because of TOs and the other 6.
Buc's Offense is 20th in yards/drive, 24th in points, 23rd in turnovers, 28th in INTs, 9th in fumbles. Bucs are starting out in decent field position/drive (13th). 21st in plays/drive.
Unsurprisingly the Bucs are not scoring TDs (25th) but are kicking field goals (5th). Positively, they're not punting much (10th). They are average, 16th, for 3-and-outs. Frustratingly, the Bucs are 31st in points in the red zone.
For all the above, the Bucs Defense ranks well: yards 9th, points 12th, TOs 10th and fumbles 2nd. They're 27th in INTs (bad secondary) and are average in starting field position and plays/drive. The Bucs are keeping opponent drives short at an average of 2:25, good for 7th.
The Bucs D is giving up few TDs (7th) but a lot of FGs/drive (32nd). Opponents aren't punting (28th) but are getting enough yards to kick FGs - but not score TDs. Hence the Bucs being 21st in 3-and-outs. Once in the redzone, the Bucs are keeping teams from scoring (4th).
PLAYOFF ODDS
Based on running simulations with their rankings/stas. Bucs are predicted to end last in their division with 6.4 wins. They have a 9.5% chance of winning the division and a 1.8% of a wild card slot.
After week 1 Bucs had a 10.5% chance of the 1st overall spot (Dolphins were ~30%). Now the Bucs have a 1.5% chance of #1 pick and 22.2% of top 5. Dolphins have a comical 52.8% chance of the #1 pick.
Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA):
Quick reminder what DVOA is. DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative. For more detail, read below.
