Bucs’ road to No. 1 pick a result of systematic failure By Joey Johnston | Tribune Staff Published: March 21, 2015 
Draft mistakes have played a big role in the Bucs’ fortunes since 2008. The most graphic was the selection of Kansas State quarterback Josh Freeman. His play disintegrated and he was eventually released by Greg Schiano, one of four Bucs heads coaches during that period. TRIBUNE FILE PHOTO 
Free agent mistakes have not helped. The Bucs went all out before last season, and two of their biggest signings are already gone, quarterback Josh McCown and tackle Anthony Collins. TRIBUNE FILE PHOTO 
Back luck? Perhaps. Louis Murphy’s last-minute catch set up a game-winning field-goal attempt against the Bengals, but the play was reviewed and disallowed because the Bucs had 12 men on the field. TRIBUNE FILE PHOTO 
The Bucs’ current instability can be traced to an ugly Monday night loss to the Panthers. At 9-3 and bearing down on the NFC’s top seed, the Bucs began a four-game skid that led to coach Jon Gruden’s firing. TRIBUNE FILE PHOTOTo lift the Lombardi Trophy, to become a Super Bowl champion, it takes organizational stability, excellent drafting, inspired free-agent acquisitions and, of course, good luck. Mostly, it takes a system.To qualify for the NFL’s overall No. 1 draft pick, it requires systematic failure.A revolving door of coaches. Bad drafts. Wasted free-agent money. The inability to win close games.As the Bucs prepare to bat leadoff in the April 30 draft, as they likely consider their future behind Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston or Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota, one thing seems certain:They have earned it.Here’s the formula.INSTABILITY: On Dec. 8, 2008, the Bucs were 9-3 and bearing down on the NFL playoff’s No. 1 seed. Coach Jon Gruden was completing his seventh season and had signed a contract extension through 2011 just 11 months earlier. Defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin was in his 13th season with Tampa Bay.It seemed like rock-solid stability.But the Bucs were demolished 38-23 in a “Monday Night Football” game against the Carolina Panthers, sending into motion a four-game losing streak that dropped Tampa Bay to 9-7 and out of the playoff picture.Word leaked that Kiffin was leaving to join his son, Lane, just hired as University of Tennessee head coach. After the season-closing collapse, Gruden was fired.Fast forward.Since that 9-3 moment in 2008 – really, the last moment since the Bucs have felt completely in charge of their fate as a franchise – the changes have been dizzying.Since then, Dirk Koetter is the seventh offensive coordinator.Leslie Frazier is the fifth defensive coordinator.Mike Bajakian is the sixth quarterbacks coach.Jason Licht is the third general manager.Lovie Smith is the fourth head coach.Since Gruden’s firing, the Bucs have changed direction like Barry Sanders in his prime, from the relaxed style of Raheem Morris to the toes-on-the-line intensity of Greg Schiano to Smith’s veteran leadership.DRAFT PICKS: Occasionally, free-agent signings can put a team over the top. Sometimes, obscure players are discovered, then cultivated and developed into productive players over time.But historically, the draft is the most effective way to build a team. When everything aligns, such as it did for the Bucs in 1995 when they drafted Warren Sapp and Derrick Brooks, it can lead to lengthy careers and the Pro Football Hall of Fame.For premium first-round picks, the realistic expectation is to make the Pro Bowl. At minimum, teams hope their first-round picks develop into productive players who remain on the roster for five seasons or more.Of the Bucs’ last eight first-round picks, only two (defensive tackle Gerald McCoy from 2010 and wide receiver Mike Evans from 2014) are still with the team.The most graphic mistake was the 2009 selection of Kansas State quarterback Josh Freeman, who appeared on his way to stardom, who completed 61.4 percent of his passes for 25 touchdowns and just six interceptions in his second season. He appeared to be the future. But his play disintegrated and he was eventually demoted, then released by Schiano. He hasn’t played since 2013 and his rapid descent still can’t be fully explained.There were other critical first-round bungles.In 2007, the Bucs selected Clemson defensive end Gaines Adams fourth overall. It was a tragic end when Adams, then with the Chicago Bears, died at age 26 due to an undetected heart condition in 2010.He had 29 starts in three seasons, but was largely unproductive and eventually was traded to the Bears for a second-round pick (ironic postscript: that pick was traded several times and eventually acquired by the Patriots, who took tight end Rob Gronkowski).In 2012, the Bucs picked Alabama safety Mark Barron seventh overall. He was all-rookie, but the Bucs had the NFL’s worst pass defense. Despite starting every game for two seasons, he wasn’t a good fit for Smith’s defense. He was traded to the St. Louis Rams for two draft picks (fourth and sixth rounds), not a good return for a seventh overall selection.Meanwhile, Iowa defensive end Adrian Clayborn, the 20th overall pick in 2011, ended two of his four seasons on the injured-reserve list. The Bucs didn’t pick up his option year and he recently signed with the Atlanta Falcons as a free agent. In 2013, the Bucs traded their first-round pick (13th overall) to the New York Jets, landing high-profile cornerback Darelle Revis for what amounted to a one-season rental. (The Jets used the pick to take Missouri defensive lineman Sheldon Richardson, who became the NFL’s defensive rookie of the year).FREE AGENCY: At its best, NFL free agency is a system that can patch gaps in a roster, complementing a foundation and providing a spark to jump into contention.At its worst, it’s an undisciplined shopping spree that generates buzzworthy offseason headlines but never translates into on-field production.In 2014, as Smith and Licht took the helm, the Bucs were guilty of the latter. The Bucs were one of the NFL’s most active teams, signing 13 free-agents (second-most in franchise history). But the washout quotient has been high. Offensive tackle Anthony Collins, defensive end Michael Johnson and quarterback Josh McCown already have been released.BAD LUCK: In its most basic form, the Bucs earned the No. 1 overall pick by becoming the NFL’s worst team in 2014. The Bucs and Tennessee Titans were 2-14, but Tampa Bay got the nod due to a strength-of-schedule tiebreaker. To boot, the Bucs were the NFL’s only team not to win a home game.The grisly 2014 season had its share of head-scratching moments, when the Bucs continually rescued defeat from the jaws of victory. There were eight losses by six points or fewer.There was a two-point loss, when the Bucs were in position to attempt a game-winning 49-yard field goal, but an injured player forced it to end, by rule, on a 10-second clock runoff. There was an overtime defeat when a first-play fumble was scooped and returned for a touchdown. There was a one-point loss, when the Bucs were pulled out of game-winning field position because they had 12 men on the field.You can call it bad luck.You can also say it was created by years of mistakes.Good-luck teams generally have stable direction, a lineup filled with productive first-round picks and the right free-agent additions who blend in perfectly.The Bucs have the No. 1 overall draft pick. How did the franchise return to this point? Just check your history. They earned it. [email protected](813) 259-7353Twitter: @JJohnstonTBO
