Bucs Season So Far ...
 
Notifications
Clear all

Bucs Season So Far - Bucs D > O (DISCUSSION MEGA-THREAD)

1 Posts
1 Users
0 Reactions
112 Views
Avatar Of Tog
 tog
(@tog)
Posts: 154
Gunner
Topic starter
 

Given all the talk, especially from the media, about how the secondary is holding people back, I think people will be surprised that the Bucs O and D are both around average.

Was the Bucs D average yesterday? No, it was bad. But the Seattle defense via EPA (expected points added) and DVOA was worse than the Bucs D. Both these analytical tools attempt to contextualize what and where the defense performs.

For example, the Bucs D has given up a lot of points but in the last 3 games it's had at least 9 drives start on their own ~35. For example, after Winston's fumble Seattle had it on the 15 yard line and Bucs D held them to a FG.

By DVOA, the Bucs offense is 20th and the Bucs defense 16th. The Bucs D has via DVOA (and relative to the rest of the NFL) been better than the offense.

There's a really interesting discussion on WHY the defense has been performing better and I think it'd be a good one to have.

And not only that, the Bucs D has been average (again, 16th) while the Seattle D has been worse (27th!!!).

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff/2019

We see the same thing in EPA (Expected Points Added). You can read more on EPA here: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/8379024/nfl-explaining-expected-points-metric

Short of it is that it measures what each play adds/subtracts to points scored. . Its a very popular tool (from the 1980s) that informs things like QBR and a number of analytical decisions made during the game by (smart) NFL teams.

Look where the Bucs stand. Slightly above average D, average O. This is another measure that is telling the same story as DVOA.

Epa Bucs

So what's going on? Great question - and should be a good discussion.

My quick thoughts: First, the quality of average NFL defences is lower. Second, offensive turnovers in the Bucs end have hurt (Bucs O leads league in turnovers/game). The Bucs D has had the 4th worst starting field position. Third, the run defense has been elite.

tl;dr

Bus D has been better than the Bucs O.

 
Posted : Nov. 5, 2019 11:26 am
Share: