Bucs will try to buck bum first pick QB trend 
Peyton Manning is one of a handful of quarterbacks whose careers justified their being a No. 1 draft pick. ASSOCIATED PRESS FILE By Roy Cummings | Tribune Staff Published: April 25, 2015 TAMPA — Forget about Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota. Perhaps the question the Buccaneers really need to be asking themselves as the 2015 NFL draft draws near is whether they should bother spending the first overall pick on a quarterback at all.It is certainly not a sure bet.In the past 20 years, 12 quarterbacks were drafted first overall, yet only five — Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, and Andrew Luck — have had the type of career that justifies their status as first overall selections.Everyone else in the group either failed, for one reason or another, to consistently meet his draft-day expectations (David Carr, Carson Palmer, Michael Vick, Sam Bradford and Alex Smith) or flamed out completely (Tim Couch, JaMarcus Russell).Not that the quarterback-needy Bucs would benefit any more from trading down a few spots and drafting a quarterback later in the first round. History suggests there’s no faster way to ruin an otherwise good draft than by spending a first-round pick on a quarterback.Sure, several teams have hit it big using that strategy. The Packers with Aaron Rodgers and the Ravens with Joe Flacco come to mind immediately. At best, though, drafting a quarterback in the first round has proven to be no better than a 50/50 proposition.In the past decade, 27 quarterbacks were drafted in the first round. But only 11 (Rodgers, Flacco, Luck, Newton, Stafford, Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, Blake Bortles and Teddy Bridgewater) are still starting for the teams that drafted them.Of the 16 others, a dozen (Smith, Bradford, Jason Campbell, Matt Leinart, Mark Sanchez, Tim Tebow, Josh Freeman, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Brandon Weeden, E.J. Manuel and Johnny Manziel) are either backups or with other teams. The other four (Russell, Vince Young, Brady Quinn and Jake Locker) are out of football entirely.So, why has the ability of scouts, coaches and general managers to properly project a young quarterback’s success rate diminished at a time when the importance of the position is steadily increasing? Well, the burning desire on the part of some teams to find that rare bird known as a “franchise quarterback” might be a big part of the problem.“The biggest mistake teams make is that they fall in love with the person when they’re not in love with the player,” said Shaun King, a former Buccaneers quarterback who now works as a college and pro football analyst for Yahoo Sports.“When you meet Christian Ponder or E.J. Manuel, you can fall in love with them because they’re both tall guys that are going to say, ‘Yes, sir’ and ‘No, sir’ to you. And they’re real coachable. You meet them, and you think they have everything you want in a young quarterback.“But that’s when you forget that before you met them, when you sat down and evaluated the tape of them and looked at them objectively, you really weren’t all that in love with them, because the tape said they’re really not that good.”That burning desire to find a franchise quarterback might explain why some teams have a tendency to reach, and thus miss, on young quarterbacks. But it doesn’t explain why a lot of the quarterbacks that truly are worthy of first-round selections don’t make it either.The problem there, according to Bill Polian, a 2015 Pro Football Hall of Fame inductee who was president and general manager of the Bills, Panthers and Colts, is that too much is expected of legitimate first-round quarterbacks, especially during the earliest stages of their careers.“Because of all the hoopla that surrounds these guys, fans get spoiled and we all tend to expect far too much out of them,” Polian said. “We forget that there’s a growth curve, a learning curve, for every rookie NFL quarterback.“And the truth of the matter is, every quarterback struggles coming into the National Football League. Andrew Luck is perceived to have succeeded right away, but if you look at the interception statistics he had his first year, they’re comparable to any other rookie quarterback.”Luck threw 18 interceptions his rookie season for the Colts, tied for second most in the league in 2012. That’s nothing, though, compared to the 28 that Peyton Manning threw during his 1998 rookie season in Indianapolis.In both cases, though, the quarterback’s team had the conviction to stick with the player and continue to build around him, Polian said. Not every team in the league, and certainly not every coach, gets that luxury.“The fans have to understand that you can’t go from 2-14 to 14-2 overnight,” Polian said. “It just doesn’t happen. We did it in (Indianapolis in 1999, Manning’s second season), but only because we had Marshall Faulk, Marvin Harrison, Tarik Glenn and some veterans on defense.“But even then, we still lost our first playoff game. At that time we weren’t prepared, and Peyton wasn’t prepared yet to take the team where we ultimately went. But we knew we’d get there eventually if we stuck with it, and the fans, and especially ownership, has to understand that.”Ownership. There’s another contributing factor to the demise of young quarterbacks. Often as a result of their impatience, owners have a tendency to change coaches before the quarterback they drafted in the first round is fully developed. And with a change in coaches often comes a change in quarterbacks.The Cleveland Browns are a good example of the trend. Before his second season as coach of the Browns, Pat Shurmer drafted Brandon Weeden in the first round in 2012. Shurmur was fired at the end of that season, though, and not long after taking over for Shurmer, Rob Chudzinski benched Weeden in favor of Brian Hoyer.A year later, after Chudzinski had been fired and replaced by Mike Pettine, Weeden was released. The Browns then drafted Johnny Manziel in the first round, but Manziel lost the starting job to Hoyer, who in turn lost it to Manziel, who spent a good part of this offseason in a rehab facility.“The key to having success with a young (quarterback) — and the Seahawks with Russell Wilson have proven it — is surrounding him with a great defense and a great running game,” Pettine said. “You do that and you protect the kid and you teach him how not to lose games first, and then how to win games second. “There’s a lot of ways to win in the NFL. It doesn’t always have to fall on the quarterback. You just have to find a way to make his job easier.”That’s the position the Bucs will find themselves in if they decide to take either Winston or Mariota with the first pick in this year’s draft.They’re a team in need of help on defense as well as offense, particularly across the offensive line.Without improvements there, the Bucs could be setting their new quarterback up to be another in a long line of failures. But coach Lovie Smith doesn’t see that happening this time.Though he admits to not knowing why half the quarterbacks drafted in the first round never become the franchise players they’re drafted to be, he believes the Bucs’ choice will reach that status.“These are different guys coming out this year,” Smith said. “And from going through the process and getting to know them, spending time with them, it seems like we’re going to buck that trend a little bit this year.” [email protected](813) 259-7979Twitter: @RCummingsTBO
