There is a "cap flexibility" hypothesis floating around. I want to examine that.
RAW 2019 CAP SPACE
Per Over the Cap we have: $16.6 MILLION
2019 ROOKIE POOL REQUIREMENTS
$9.3 MILLION.
2019 OPERATING INCOME REQUIREMENTS
4 MILLION.
2019 EFFECTIVE CAP SPACE
16.6 - 13.3 = 3.3 MILLION
LIKELY PROSPECTIVE CUTS
Curry (10 mil)
Dotson (4.6 mil freed w/ .125 dead)
Unrein (3.75 mil)
Gholston (3.75 mil)
Anger (3 mil)
Beau Allen would only free up 2 million and was slightly below average. Gholston frees up nearly double that and was very poor last year, so my guess is Gholston exits stage left.
2019 EFFECTIVE CAP SPACE AFTER LIKELY PROSPECTIVE CUTS
3.3 + 25.1 = 28.4 MILLION
POSSIBLE CUTS
McCoy (13 mil)
DJax (10 mil)
Brate (7 mil)
That is an extra 30 MILLION, bring the total to 58.4 MILLION. My guess is all 3 of these guys are gone.
1) You can't retain Brate's production with that number. He wasn't bad last year. He was horrible.
2) DJax and JW just don't work together skill-set wise. My guess is Arians overtures are about trade value retention rather than seriously retaining him.
3) McCoy is tapering off and without that 13 million available (and with all of the other players that will be leaving; see above and below), we will be hard-pressed to secure any semblance of robust, NFL-level-play, within this roster
DSMITH, HUMP, KWON, BARBER
I find it virtually impossible to believe that DSmith isn't tagged. It would just be (a) too impactful to Licht's resume in a negative way (especially with Brate, Hump, and Kwon also leaving) and it will also (b) impose upon us ZERO FLEXIBILITY in the draft. We will have to draft Jonah Williams or Jawaan Taylor in the 1st round. Given how much DL we are going to be jettisoning in the offseason, we desperately need to have the flexibility to draft defense (and likely DL).
Hump is going to sign a contract that is beyond our means. Bobo Wilson plays slot next year. The inability to sign Hump will either by (a) lack of cap flexibility or (b) the market for him exploding. My guess is we could put a ceiling number for him at 7 million. But Indy and others will beat that with their absurd cap space (and roster that is significantly better than ours).
My guess is RFA Barber gets the 2 million tender? Let's go with that.
So OT tag is somewhere between 14.5 to 15 million, lets call it 15 million.
So we have 41.4 MILLION after Smith's Franchise Tag and Barber's Tender.
DL REQUIREMENTS AFTER THESE MOVES
Draft picks (rookie pool already accounted for) and 41.4 MILLION (all available as operating income accounted for) AVAILABLE FOR FA to replace:
* 3 DL INCLUDING AT LEAST 1 STARTING PLAYER (we have 2 DT on the roster)
* 3-4 LB INCLUDING STARTING ILB (Kwon, Taylor, Lynch). TBD HOW EFFECTIVE BECKWITH IS UPON RETURN AND CICHY'S SITUATION.
* 1 STARTING BOUNDARY CB and 1 DEPTH
* 1 STARTING RG
* 1 STARTING RT
* 1 STARTING PUNTER
* 1 WR
* 1 RB
* 1 TE
* Likely 1 Safety (our starters are average players and Isaiah Johnson was awful)
16ish players need to be replaced, 15 of which played prominent roles (in terms of total snaps and/or Teams) in 2018.
1) Godwin slides into Flanker position. Bobo slides into Slot. Watson is WR4.
2) If our base Nickel is 24, we can get away with one less DL (but they'll all need to be versatile), but we'll need another starting Edge player and 1 or 2 starting ILbs that can cover (Stewart could possibly move there in Nickel).
With all of these moves our starting teams look like this:
OFFENSE
QB - Winston
RB/3DB - Barber and Wilson
WR1/2/3 - Evans, Godwin, Wilson
TE1/2 - Howard, Auclaire
LT - Smith
LG - Marpet
C - Jensen
RG - x
RT - x
DEFENSE
EDGE - Nassib, Pierre-Paul, Spence
DT - Vea, Allen
(off ball) LB - David, Beckwith (Stewart in Nickel?)
CB - x, Davis
NCB - Hargreaves
S1/S2 - Evans, Whitehead
ST
PK - Santos
P - x
+++++++++++++++
We're forced (we were going to anyway would be my guess) to Franchise DSmith.
Accrued WR depth and Auclaire's emergence somewhat (a very somewhat somewhat) mitigates the loss of DJax, Hump, and Brate.
A lot of holes to fill (DL, RG, RT, ILB, CB, P, depth). Currently we have the below assets to do so:
41.4 Million in EFFECTIVE CAP SPACE
6 DRAFT PICKS (rookie pool accounted for)
1 (5)
2 (39)
3 (70)
4 (101)
5 (135)
6 (166)
These are the facts and most likely scenario I can surmise.
So, 6 of the 15 in the draft (if no trade-back) and 10 in FA from the 41.4 million.
In my estimation, our current roster situation is forcing our hand (must keep Jensen, must Tag Dsmith, no chance to retain Hump, must cut all of Brate/DJax/McCoy, must cut Anger, have to replace lots of starters) and requiring of us a lot out of a little in terms of accruing players to fill out this roster.
