Chances are, percentages in Bucs’ favor in draft 
If Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota meet when the Bucs and Titans open the season, it likely will be for a pregame handshake. THE ASSOCIATED PRESS By Martin Fennelly | Tribune Staff Published: April 23, 2015 One week to go.One week from tonight, for a few minutes, the Bucs will run the NFL. Draft night. They will control the horizontal and the vertical. They will be lord and master of every mock drafter on the planet.The Bucs will matter more a week from tonight than they have since they walked from the field in San Diego with the Lombardi Trophy.Maybe there’s no real drama here.Here are the odds. And forgive my math.Chance that with the first pick of the 2015 NFL draft, the Buccaneers will select Jameis Winston, quarterback, Florida State (93 percent). This borders on mortal lock. The Bucs are in too deep. And Jameis now says those Publix crab legs were given to him, not stolen. I wonder which time he’s lying. But, like I said, the Bucs are in too deep. Jameis has said enough of the right things, smiled enough of the right smiles.Chance that the Bucs will take Marcus Mariota (7 percent). I love the kid and think he’s going to be better than people think if given time, which I’m sure the 2-14 Bucs don’t think they have. At this point, a Glazer would have to wake up in a cold sweat over Jameis to make it Marcus.Chance that the Bucs will not pick a quarterback at No. 1 (4 percent). This would be a lunatic move unless the Bucs hate Jameis off the field and Marcus on the field, completely. Yes, the Bucs need an edge rusher, have ever since Simeon Rice left town. Leonard Williams from USC will be sitting there. It would still be a gargantuan mistake, given the quarterback situation.Chance that the Bucs will trade down from No. 1 (6 percent). They’d need a ton of picks and a quarterback, and anyone they’d get in any deal would be a quarterback somebody else didn’t want. Then there’s the RGIII deal, where Washington mortgaged so much. It’s a true cautionary tale.Chance Jameis decides to play baseball instead of football (5 percent). He could be a star in the NFL. He’d be just another fastball thrower. There’s always a chance that he wouldn’t be any good. Yes, even if he was facing the Rays’ batting order.Chance that the clock will run out (0 percent). Do not laugh. OK, laugh at the Minnesota Vikings. In the first round of the 2003 draft, their time to pick seventh expired as they worked on a trade. Picking first, this won’t happen to the Bucs.Chance the Bucs will take Booker Reese (2 percent). In 1982, miscommunication and bad speaker phones led the Bucs to hand in the wrong card and thereby draft Sean Farrell in the first round, rather than their real choice, our man Booker. The Bucs used the second-rounder to pick Reese, who was a disaster in the NFL. Farrell turned out OK. Technology has improved, even if Bucs performances in games have returned to those bad old days.Chance Bucs coach Lovie Smith and GM Jason Licht have already seen “The Hunting Ground,” the documentary on college sexual assault that includes Winston’s accuser (2 percent). I want this number to be higher. I mean, I’m sure someone connected with the Bucs saw the film. I know I saw it at the Tampa Theater, where one of the songs played on the famed house Wurlizter before the movie was “Thank Heaven for Little Girls.” It still makes me cringe.Chance that Jameis and Marcus will face each other when the Bucs open the regular season against Tennessee, which picks second in this draft (22 percent). If they do, it will be for a pregame handshake. If the Bucs take Jameis, he’s the starter. Write it down with ink, or in cement. If the Titans take Marcus, he will take time to become the starter, barring injuries. No Rose Bowl in-game reunion.Chance that Jameis and Tim Tebow join hands and pray after Bucs-Eagles game late in season (0 percent). Not a chance, unless St. Tim is made Philadelphia team chaplain. I don’t see him playing. Jameis will have to thank his maker by himself.Chance that Jameis will throw 20 touchdowns as a rookie (67 percent).Chance that Jameis will throw 20 interceptions as a rookie (48 percent).Chance that the Bucs mess this up (62 percent). Hey, they’re the Bucs.Chance that Jameis will make this community proud. We’ll get back to you.
