Chances slim that Winston, Mariota deliver titles to their new teamsBy Brad Gagnon | CBSSports.comMay 15, 2015 
Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota went 1-2 in the 2015 NFL Draft, marking the sixth time in the Super Bowl era that QBs have been the first two picks.
The dangerous news for fans of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Tennessee Titans is that precedents aren't especially encouraging for both quarterbacks to claim a Super Bowl title.The 1-2 curseIn those previous five drafts in which quarterbacks were selected first and second overall, only once did both wind up making at least one Pro Bowl (Luck and Griffin). But even Griffin has become a potential bust now, which could move him into a category with Couch, Leaf and Mirer, all of whom failed to become All-Pros or Pro Bowlers. None of them led their original franchises to Super Bowls, nor did Plunkett (who won Super Bowls with the Raiders) or Archie Manning. McNabb and Bledsoe both led their original franchise to a Super Bowl but lost the big game.The jury's still out on Luck and Griffin, and I'm not completely comfortable calling Plunkett and Archie Manning busts because Plunkett won two Super Bowls and Archie Manning was a Pro Bowler twice, but neither was a first-team All Pro.So we've never seen both quarterbacks drafted 1-2 become Super Bowl champions or first-team All-Pros, and only one of the 10 drafted under those circumstances since 1966 (Peyton Manning) has won a Super Bowl with the franchise that drafted him. That could change if Luck or Griffin can lead the Colts or Redskins to titles down the line, but the precedents aren't in their favor.
Can RG3 shake the bust label? (USATSI) Top-three picksSince the 1966 season when the first Super Bowl was played, 39 quarterbacks have been drafted either first, second or third overall. Only 23 of them have made a Pro Bowl. Only three -- Peyton Manning, Bert Jones and Terry Bradshaw -- have become first-team All-Pros. And only five -- Peyton Manning, Bradshaw, Eli Manning, John Elway and Troy Aikman -- won Super Bowls with the teams that they started their respective careers with.*That gives Winston or Mariota -- viewed separately -- a 59 percent chance of becoming a Pro Bowler, an eight percent chance of becoming a first-team All-Pro and a 13 percent chance of winning a Super Bowl with the teams that drafted them.*Technically, Eli Manning was drafted by the Chargers and Elway was drafted by the Colts, but both were traded soon afterwards.No. 1 overall pick precedents bode well for WinstonSince 1966, 20 quarterbacks have been drafted first overall. Fourteen have made the Pro Bowl, two -- Peyton Manning and Bradshaw -- have become first-team All-Pros, and five -- both Manning brothers, Bradshaw, Elway and Aikman -- won Super Bowls with the teams that they started their respective careers with. Three are in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.In other words, precedents suggest that Winston has a 70 percent chance of becoming a Pro Bowler, a 10 percent chance of becoming a first-team All-Pro and a 25 percent chance of winning a Super Bowl with the Buccaneers. That's actually quite solid.The Bucs just have to hope Winston becomes another Manning, Bradshaw, Elway, or Aikman and not another Couch, JaMarcus Russell, David Carr, Jeff George or Steve Bartkowski.No. 2 overall pick precedents aren't as nice to MariotaSince 1966, only seven quarterbacks have been drafted second overall. Four have made the Pro Bowl, one -- Jones -- has become a first-team All-Pro, and zero have won Super Bowls. None are in the Hall of Fame.In other words, Mariota is looking to be the first-ever No. 2 overall pick to lead his team to a championship.On one end of the No. 2 overall pick spectrum is McNabb, whose six Pro Bowls are part of a tremendous career. He also fell just short of winning several championships. But on the other end lie Leaf, Mirer and Rick Norton, who started just 11 games in half a decade after going second overall to the Miami Dolphins in 1966.And keep in mind that in those five years in which quarterbacks went 1-2 in the past, only once -- when McNabb went behind Couch in 1999 -- did the second quarterback clearly have a better career than the first one.
History says Marcus Mariota's chances of being a better pro than Jameis Winston aren't great. (USATSI) It gets worse in the No. 3 draft slot, which has produced five Pro Bowl quarterbacks out of a possible 12. None of them have been first-team All-Pros, none are Hall of Famers and none have won the Super Bowl.Being a quarterback in the top spot has traditionally been quite a good omen. But those drafted near the very top but outside of the No. 1 spot have really failed to deliver in a major way. In fact, the No. 2 and No. 3 spots are 0-for-19 when it comes to producing Hall of Famers and Super Bowl winners.
