This game will be decided by how far Coen has his head up his ass. It's pretty far up there after these last two games.
Chargers are 20th in scoring and 1st in scoring defense. They are 4th best in the league on defense in net passing yards per attempt but they are 22nd in yards per attempt allowed. He has to run the ball on 1st and 10, 2nd and medium, 3rd and short. I don't want to hear about balance, I don't want to hear about the iNtErPlAy. Run the ball at a 60% or higher rate. The average score in their losses is Chargers 12 and the opponent 21. 3 teams have beat them scoring in the teens. Falcons lost to them because they threw the ball too much. They should have won that game 16-9 but their run/pass ratio was too pass heavy. Don't let Baker lose this game, let the offensive line win it.
Sidenote: when considering White's avg/carry it's important to take into account that when TB is in goal-to-go/short yardage situations, he's usually the RB, which means he's often running some kind of short-yardage play anyway. Not saying he'd average a lot more than he is if he wasn't, but if he's running 10%+ of his rushes for short-yardage, that is going to have a negative effect his overall average.
You're not going to like this.
Yards per carry when you take away 3rd/4th short and goal line.
White- 4.7
Irving- 5.8
Tucker- 8.6
Why wouldn't I like this? It's not about liking it or not anyway. You just proved my point. Taking away short yardage situations, White's avg does in fact go up, and is more than satisfactory in the NFL. It's not as high as Irving's or Tucker's, but 4.7yds/att is more than adequate in this league, no?
And again, Tucker's avg is inflated by his very small sample size. He wouldn't be averaging 8+yds/att if he was getting RB1 reps all season long.
And finally, White isn't the RB1 because he's the best rusher. He's the best pass-protector and probably the best receiver. It's the entire package of he can run the ball well enough, he blocks better than the other two, and he has not only the best hands of the RBs, but he gets open, and catches passes in the scramble drill better than the other two.
If your point is his ypc goes up when you take out short yardage you don't have a point because basically every RB's ypc goes up when you take out short yardage. He's not running the ball well enough, he's an ineffective runner that only has a respectable ypc because the Bucs run blocking is so good. That's why the other two RBs are so far ahead of him. When you get good backs behind a good line you get Irving and Tucker numbers. When you put a bad back behind a good line you get White numbers.
Sidenote: when considering White's avg/carry it's important to take into account that when TB is in goal-to-go/short yardage situations, he's usually the RB, which means he's often running some kind of short-yardage play anyway. Not saying he'd average a lot more than he is if he wasn't, but if he's running 10%+ of his rushes for short-yardage, that is going to have a negative effect his overall average.
You're not going to like this.
Yards per carry when you take away 3rd/4th short and goal line.
White- 4.7
Irving- 5.8
Tucker- 8.6
Why wouldn't I like this? It's not about liking it or not anyway. You just proved my point. Taking away short yardage situations, White's avg does in fact go up, and is more than satisfactory in the NFL. It's not as high as Irving's or Tucker's, but 4.7yds/att is more than adequate in this league, no?
And again, Tucker's avg is inflated by his very small sample size. He wouldn't be averaging 8+yds/att if he was getting RB1 reps all season long.
And finally, White isn't the RB1 because he's the best rusher. He's the best pass-protector and probably the best receiver. It's the entire package of he can run the ball well enough, he blocks better than the other two, and he has not only the best hands of the RBs, but he gets open, and catches passes in the scramble drill better than the other two.
If your point is his ypc goes up when you take out short yardage you don't have a point because basically every RB's ypc goes up when you take out short yardage. He's not running the ball well enough, he's an ineffective runner that only has a respectable ypc because the Bucs run blocking is so good. That's why the other two RBs are so far ahead of him. When you get good backs behind a good line you get Irving and Tucker numbers. When you put a bad back behind a good line you get White numbers.
Can Irving/Tucker pass-pro as well as White? Can they run routes and catch as well as White? Have they shown that they can get open the way White does in the scramble drill? ANd since when is a 4.7yd/att average not good enough in the NFL?
If they can, then Coen would be dumb to keep putting White in. But as far as I can tell, neither can do everything that White can do. It's not about just which is the best pure RB. Especially when your OL isn't protecting for very long.
I'd prefer we sit Bucky this week and keep him healthy down the stretch. Give White/Tucker a 70/30 split.
I thought they should have rested Irving vs. the Raiders. White and Tucker would have been fine. In hindsight, Bucky didn't do too much anyway - outside of aggravating his injury. They didn't really need him vs. Oakland, but they may vs. the Chargers.
It would have been the prudent thing to do, but alas. Now, they may have to rest him against the Chargers.
They haven't learned they lesson so... It seems like *some* of our injuries are coaching maleficence.
Yeah. Don’t expect that to change any time soon.
I don't want to hear about the iNtErPlAy. Run the ball at a 60% or higher rate.
I get that you are trying to say "run the ball more." I think most people would agree, as general concept.
BUT, it does not really work the way you are suggesting because running is often dictated by the game itself.
The Eagles are probably the league leader in rushing attempts. They are probably on average the 60% rushing team you're suggesting because they have a running QB and the best RB in Barkley
The Bucs beat the Eagles. That day the Eagles were without receivers and they have the best RB in the league. No brainer, run it and run it some more, right?
They run that day at a 40% clip.
They did not LOSE because they CHOSE to run it 40%, the only ran it 40% . . . because they WERE LOSING most of the game. They probably hoed to run it 75% of the time lol but they only ran 45-50 plays, I bet. They had NO CHOICE but to go heavy pass because they were down 24-0 before they scored.
RUNNING in football is more often a reflection of the way the game plays out.
You mention D&D, so maybe you mean choose to run 60% in appropriate D&D, but even that ONLY works when not behind, especially late.
In the Saints game your boy Tucker goes off, but its mostly in the 4th quarter right? WITH THE LEAD back.
We are probably 50/50 that game, run pass. Put up 51.
Sidenote: when considering White's avg/carry it's important to take into account that when TB is in goal-to-go/short yardage situations, he's usually the RB, which means he's often running some kind of short-yardage play anyway. Not saying he'd average a lot more than he is if he wasn't, but if he's running 10%+ of his rushes for short-yardage, that is going to have a negative effect his overall average.
You're not going to like this.
Yards per carry when you take away 3rd/4th short and goal line.
White- 4.7
Irving- 5.8
Tucker- 8.6
Why wouldn't I like this? It's not about liking it or not anyway. You just proved my point. Taking away short yardage situations, White's avg does in fact go up, and is more than satisfactory in the NFL. It's not as high as Irving's or Tucker's, but 4.7yds/att is more than adequate in this league, no?
And again, Tucker's avg is inflated by his very small sample size. He wouldn't be averaging 8+yds/att if he was getting RB1 reps all season long.
And finally, White isn't the RB1 because he's the best rusher. He's the best pass-protector and probably the best receiver. It's the entire package of he can run the ball well enough, he blocks better than the other two, and he has not only the best hands of the RBs, but he gets open, and catches passes in the scramble drill better than the other two.
If your point is his ypc goes up when you take out short yardage you don't have a point because basically every RB's ypc goes up when you take out short yardage. He's not running the ball well enough, he's an ineffective runner that only has a respectable ypc because the Bucs run blocking is so good. That's why the other two RBs are so far ahead of him. When you get good backs behind a good line you get Irving and Tucker numbers. When you put a bad back behind a good line you get White numbers.
Can Irving/Tucker pass-pro as well as White? Can they run routes and catch as well as White? Have they shown that they can get open the way White does in the scramble drill? ANd since when is a 4.7yd/att average not good enough in the NFL?
If they can, then Coen would be dumb to keep putting White in. But as far as I can tell, neither can do everything that White can do. It's not about just which is the best pure RB. Especially when your OL isn't protecting for very long.
This is exactly the problem. Coen is priortizing passing attributes over running attributes. Bucs are 4th in yards per carry and the teams we're behind all have running QBs. If we're 4th in yards per carry why are we only 16th in rush attempts? The crux of the issue is that Coen doesn't really want to run the ball. We saw it vs Carolina and vs the Raiders.
I don't want to hear about the iNtErPlAy. Run the ball at a 60% or higher rate.
I get that you are trying to say "run the ball more." I think most people would agree, as general concept.
BUT, it does not really work the way you are suggesting because running is often dictated by the game itself.
The Eagles are probably the league leader in rushing attempts. They are probably on average the 60% rushing team you're suggesting because they have a running QB and the best RB in Barkley
The Bucs beat the Eagles. That day the Eagles were without receivers and they have the best RB in the league. No brainer, run it and run it some more, right?
They run that day at a 40% clip.
They did not LOSE because they CHOSE to run it 40%, the only ran it 40% . . . because they WERE LOSING most of the game. They probably hoed to run it 75% of the time lol but they only ran 45-50 plays, I bet. They had NO CHOICE but to go heavy pass because they were down 24-0 before they scored.
RUNNING in football is more often a reflection of the way the game plays out.
You mention D&D, so maybe you mean choose to run 60% in appropriate D&D, but even that ONLY works when not behind, especially late.
In the Saints game your boy Tucker goes off, but its mostly in the 4th quarter right? WITH THE LEAD back.
We are probably 50/50 that game, run pass. Put up 51.
Good lord you're about to get dunked on. Eagles started their first 3 drives that game with three incomplete passes on 1st down and got back into the game with a 59 yard run on 1st down. Try again.
Sidenote: when considering White's avg/carry it's important to take into account that when TB is in goal-to-go/short yardage situations, he's usually the RB, which means he's often running some kind of short-yardage play anyway. Not saying he'd average a lot more than he is if he wasn't, but if he's running 10%+ of his rushes for short-yardage, that is going to have a negative effect his overall average.
You're not going to like this.
Yards per carry when you take away 3rd/4th short and goal line.
White- 4.7
Irving- 5.8
Tucker- 8.6
Why wouldn't I like this? It's not about liking it or not anyway. You just proved my point. Taking away short yardage situations, White's avg does in fact go up, and is more than satisfactory in the NFL. It's not as high as Irving's or Tucker's, but 4.7yds/att is more than adequate in this league, no?
And again, Tucker's avg is inflated by his very small sample size. He wouldn't be averaging 8+yds/att if he was getting RB1 reps all season long.
And finally, White isn't the RB1 because he's the best rusher. He's the best pass-protector and probably the best receiver. It's the entire package of he can run the ball well enough, he blocks better than the other two, and he has not only the best hands of the RBs, but he gets open, and catches passes in the scramble drill better than the other two.
If your point is his ypc goes up when you take out short yardage you don't have a point because basically every RB's ypc goes up when you take out short yardage. He's not running the ball well enough, he's an ineffective runner that only has a respectable ypc because the Bucs run blocking is so good. That's why the other two RBs are so far ahead of him. When you get good backs behind a good line you get Irving and Tucker numbers. When you put a bad back behind a good line you get White numbers.
Can Irving/Tucker pass-pro as well as White? Can they run routes and catch as well as White? Have they shown that they can get open the way White does in the scramble drill? ANd since when is a 4.7yd/att average not good enough in the NFL?
If they can, then Coen would be dumb to keep putting White in. But as far as I can tell, neither can do everything that White can do. It's not about just which is the best pure RB. Especially when your OL isn't protecting for very long.
This is exactly the problem. Coen is priortizing passing attributes over running attributes. Bucs are 4th in yards per carry and the teams we're behind all have running QBs. If we're 4th in yards per carry why are we only 16th in rush attempts? The crux of the issue is that Coen doesn't really want to run the ball. We saw it vs Carolina and vs the Raiders.
Ah, you see passing as a problem. That's your issue. Well, hate to break it to you, but in the modern NFL you can't just run it all the time. The defenses in this league will stop you. Also, rushing effectively requires that your OL block up consistently, nearly perfectly. One whiff at the POA, and most of the time the play fails.
Here's the thing: in today's NFL, on average, it takes 6+ 1st down conversions to drive 70+ yards. If you have to do that rushing, even at a 7yds/att clip (which isn't really a thing in the NFL but whatever), you're talking about nearly 10 1st downs per drive. Mathematically, that's a losing proposition. Which is why no one does that, not even BAL/PHI. Passing downfield eliminates several of those 1st-down conversions, and obviously it's easier to convert 3-4-5 1st-downs than it is trying to convert 6+.
You need the passing game to get chunk plays so you literally have to run fewer plays, so your team doesn't have to be perfect/near perfect so many times in a row.
The problem with TB is that Godwin got injured. Now, they literally only have one really reliable receiver in Evans. Otton has improved over last season, but he still has a drop issue and sometimes just doesn't run good routes. So he still has inconsistency issues, and TB still needs more production from their receivers when Otton isn't playing his best.
So what Coen is doing is trying to find at least one, if not two, more other receivers that can be consistent targets to replace some of Godwin's efficiency/performance. They have to find those targets through Shepard, McMillan, Miller, Jarrett, whoever. Otherwise, defenses can key on Evans and Otton, key on the screens/short passing game (as SF/CAR/LVR did most recently), and make TB a one-dimensional running team.
Which means Coen is going to keep calling passing plays over running plays, because these young/inexperienced receivers need live reps, Baker needs to develop chemistry with these young/inexperienced receivers, and Coen needs to see what these guys can and can't do in the next 4 weeks.
It may look like a struggle at times, but this is what needs to happen for this team to grow/develop enough to be competitive in the playoffs. If the only goal was to get into the playoffs/just win games, then sure, run the ball 40+ times/game. I doubt LAC would let you do it, but what the hell, we're just trying to win one game, right? But such a team would likely be one-and-done in the playoffs, where you're facing the best defenses/DCs.
I don't want to hear about the iNtErPlAy. Run the ball at a 60% or higher rate.
I get that you are trying to say "run the ball more." I think most people would agree, as general concept.
BUT, it does not really work the way you are suggesting because running is often dictated by the game itself.
The Eagles are probably the league leader in rushing attempts. They are probably on average the 60% rushing team you're suggesting because they have a running QB and the best RB in Barkley
The Bucs beat the Eagles. That day the Eagles were without receivers and they have the best RB in the league. No brainer, run it and run it some more, right?
They run that day at a 40% clip.
They did not LOSE because they CHOSE to run it 40%, the only ran it 40% . . . because they WERE LOSING most of the game. They probably hoed to run it 75% of the time lol but they only ran 45-50 plays, I bet. They had NO CHOICE but to go heavy pass because they were down 24-0 before they scored.
RUNNING in football is more often a reflection of the way the game plays out.
You mention D&D, so maybe you mean choose to run 60% in appropriate D&D, but even that ONLY works when not behind, especially late.
In the Saints game your boy Tucker goes off, but its mostly in the 4th quarter right? WITH THE LEAD back.
We are probably 50/50 that game, run pass. Put up 51.
Good lord you're about to get dunked on. Eagles started their first 3 drives that game with three incomplete passes on 1st down and got back into the game with a 59 yard run on 1st down. Try again.
Strange, I dont feel dunked on.
:-)
Sidenote: when considering White's avg/carry it's important to take into account that when TB is in goal-to-go/short yardage situations, he's usually the RB, which means he's often running some kind of short-yardage play anyway. Not saying he'd average a lot more than he is if he wasn't, but if he's running 10%+ of his rushes for short-yardage, that is going to have a negative effect his overall average.
You're not going to like this.
Yards per carry when you take away 3rd/4th short and goal line.
White- 4.7
Irving- 5.8
Tucker- 8.6
Why wouldn't I like this? It's not about liking it or not anyway. You just proved my point. Taking away short yardage situations, White's avg does in fact go up, and is more than satisfactory in the NFL. It's not as high as Irving's or Tucker's, but 4.7yds/att is more than adequate in this league, no?
And again, Tucker's avg is inflated by his very small sample size. He wouldn't be averaging 8+yds/att if he was getting RB1 reps all season long.
And finally, White isn't the RB1 because he's the best rusher. He's the best pass-protector and probably the best receiver. It's the entire package of he can run the ball well enough, he blocks better than the other two, and he has not only the best hands of the RBs, but he gets open, and catches passes in the scramble drill better than the other two.
If your point is his ypc goes up when you take out short yardage you don't have a point because basically every RB's ypc goes up when you take out short yardage. He's not running the ball well enough, he's an ineffective runner that only has a respectable ypc because the Bucs run blocking is so good. That's why the other two RBs are so far ahead of him. When you get good backs behind a good line you get Irving and Tucker numbers. When you put a bad back behind a good line you get White numbers.
Can Irving/Tucker pass-pro as well as White? Can they run routes and catch as well as White? Have they shown that they can get open the way White does in the scramble drill? ANd since when is a 4.7yd/att average not good enough in the NFL?
If they can, then Coen would be dumb to keep putting White in. But as far as I can tell, neither can do everything that White can do. It's not about just which is the best pure RB. Especially when your OL isn't protecting for very long.
This is exactly the problem. Coen is priortizing passing attributes over running attributes. Bucs are 4th in yards per carry and the teams we're behind all have running QBs. If we're 4th in yards per carry why are we only 16th in rush attempts? The crux of the issue is that Coen doesn't really want to run the ball. We saw it vs Carolina and vs the Raiders.
Ah, you see passing as a problem. That's your issue. Well, hate to break it to you, but in the modern NFL you can't just run it all the time. The defenses in this league will stop you. Also, rushing effectively requires that your OL block up consistently, nearly perfectly. One whiff at the POA, and most of the time the play fails.
Here's the thing: in today's NFL, on average, it takes 6+ 1st down conversions to drive 70+ yards. If you have to do that rushing, even at a 7yds/att clip (which isn't really a thing in the NFL but whatever), you're talking about nearly 10 1st downs per drive. Mathematically, that's a losing proposition. Which is why no one does that, not even BAL/PHI. Passing downfield eliminates several of those 1st-down conversions, and obviously it's easier to convert 3-4-5 1st-downs than it is trying to convert 6+.
You need the passing game to get chunk plays so you literally have to run fewer plays, so your team doesn't have to be perfect/near perfect so many times in a row.
The problem with TB is that Godwin got injured. Now, they literally only have one really reliable receiver in Evans. Otton has improved over last season, but he still has a drop issue and sometimes just doesn't run good routes. So he still has inconsistency issues, and TB still needs more production from their receivers when Otton isn't playing his best.
So what Coen is doing is trying to find at least one, if not two, more other receivers that can be consistent targets to replace some of Godwin's efficiency/performance. They have to find those targets through Shepard, McMillan, Miller, Jarrett, whoever. Otherwise, defenses can key on Evans and Otton, key on the screens/short passing game (as SF/CAR/LVR did most recently), and make TB a one-dimensional running team.
Which means Coen is going to keep calling passing plays over running plays, because these young/inexperienced receivers need live reps, Baker needs to develop chemistry with these young/inexperienced receivers, and Coen needs to see what these guys can and can't do in the next 4 weeks.
It may look like a struggle at times, but this is what needs to happen for this team to grow/develop enough to be competitive in the playoffs. If the only goal was to get into the playoffs/just win games, then sure, run the ball 40+ times/game. I doubt LAC would let you do it, but what the hell, we're just trying to win one game, right? But such a team would likely be one-and-done in the playoffs, where you're facing the best defenses/DCs.
You literally just wrote a bunch of bullshit. The Panthers and Raiders couldn't stop our running game. Not in the 1st qtr, not in the 4th qtr/OT. And there Coen was, getting sacked out of FG range on run downs. Baker had 5 turnovers on run downs. Newsflash to everyone. Our running game is really good, especially without White.
Sidenote: when considering White's avg/carry it's important to take into account that when TB is in goal-to-go/short yardage situations, he's usually the RB, which means he's often running some kind of short-yardage play anyway. Not saying he'd average a lot more than he is if he wasn't, but if he's running 10%+ of his rushes for short-yardage, that is going to have a negative effect his overall average.
You're not going to like this.
Yards per carry when you take away 3rd/4th short and goal line.
White- 4.7
Irving- 5.8
Tucker- 8.6
Why wouldn't I like this? It's not about liking it or not anyway. You just proved my point. Taking away short yardage situations, White's avg does in fact go up, and is more than satisfactory in the NFL. It's not as high as Irving's or Tucker's, but 4.7yds/att is more than adequate in this league, no?
And again, Tucker's avg is inflated by his very small sample size. He wouldn't be averaging 8+yds/att if he was getting RB1 reps all season long.
And finally, White isn't the RB1 because he's the best rusher. He's the best pass-protector and probably the best receiver. It's the entire package of he can run the ball well enough, he blocks better than the other two, and he has not only the best hands of the RBs, but he gets open, and catches passes in the scramble drill better than the other two.
If your point is his ypc goes up when you take out short yardage you don't have a point because basically every RB's ypc goes up when you take out short yardage. He's not running the ball well enough, he's an ineffective runner that only has a respectable ypc because the Bucs run blocking is so good. That's why the other two RBs are so far ahead of him. When you get good backs behind a good line you get Irving and Tucker numbers. When you put a bad back behind a good line you get White numbers.
Can Irving/Tucker pass-pro as well as White? Can they run routes and catch as well as White? Have they shown that they can get open the way White does in the scramble drill? ANd since when is a 4.7yd/att average not good enough in the NFL?
If they can, then Coen would be dumb to keep putting White in. But as far as I can tell, neither can do everything that White can do. It's not about just which is the best pure RB. Especially when your OL isn't protecting for very long.
This is exactly the problem. Coen is priortizing passing attributes over running attributes. Bucs are 4th in yards per carry and the teams we're behind all have running QBs. If we're 4th in yards per carry why are we only 16th in rush attempts? The crux of the issue is that Coen doesn't really want to run the ball. We saw it vs Carolina and vs the Raiders.
Ah, you see passing as a problem. That's your issue. Well, hate to break it to you, but in the modern NFL you can't just run it all the time. The defenses in this league will stop you. Also, rushing effectively requires that your OL block up consistently, nearly perfectly. One whiff at the POA, and most of the time the play fails.
Here's the thing: in today's NFL, on average, it takes 6+ 1st down conversions to drive 70+ yards. If you have to do that rushing, even at a 7yds/att clip (which isn't really a thing in the NFL but whatever), you're talking about nearly 10 1st downs per drive. Mathematically, that's a losing proposition. Which is why no one does that, not even BAL/PHI. Passing downfield eliminates several of those 1st-down conversions, and obviously it's easier to convert 3-4-5 1st-downs than it is trying to convert 6+.
You need the passing game to get chunk plays so you literally have to run fewer plays, so your team doesn't have to be perfect/near perfect so many times in a row.
The problem with TB is that Godwin got injured. Now, they literally only have one really reliable receiver in Evans. Otton has improved over last season, but he still has a drop issue and sometimes just doesn't run good routes. So he still has inconsistency issues, and TB still needs more production from their receivers when Otton isn't playing his best.
So what Coen is doing is trying to find at least one, if not two, more other receivers that can be consistent targets to replace some of Godwin's efficiency/performance. They have to find those targets through Shepard, McMillan, Miller, Jarrett, whoever. Otherwise, defenses can key on Evans and Otton, key on the screens/short passing game (as SF/CAR/LVR did most recently), and make TB a one-dimensional running team.
Which means Coen is going to keep calling passing plays over running plays, because these young/inexperienced receivers need live reps, Baker needs to develop chemistry with these young/inexperienced receivers, and Coen needs to see what these guys can and can't do in the next 4 weeks.
It may look like a struggle at times, but this is what needs to happen for this team to grow/develop enough to be competitive in the playoffs. If the only goal was to get into the playoffs/just win games, then sure, run the ball 40+ times/game. I doubt LAC would let you do it, but what the hell, we're just trying to win one game, right? But such a team would likely be one-and-done in the playoffs, where you're facing the best defenses/DCs.
You literally just wrote a bunch of bullshit. The Panthers and Raiders couldn't stop our running game. Not in the 1st qtr, not in the 4th qtr/OT. And there Coen was, getting sacked out of FG range on run downs. Baker had 5 turnovers on run downs. Newsflash to everyone. Our running game is really good, especially without White.
Lol, okay. Whatever floats your boat. And I never said TB's running game wasn't good. Don't know where you got that. But TB won't be playing CAR/LVR in the playoffs, will they? But if you can't see that TB needs to have an effective passing attack to be competitive in the playoffs, well, I don't know what to tell you, other than good luck with that.
Ah, I see where you misunderstood me now. This is what I said about CAR/LVR:
"defenses can key on Evans and Otton, key on the screens/short passing game (as SF/CAR/LVR did most recently), and make TB a one-dimensional running team."
What I thought I made clear here was that all of those teams obviously were jumping TB's screen/quick passing game. Chaisson's INT was a textbook example of that. He obviously studied the tape, and as soon as Wirfs faked his block (not very convincingly unfortunately), Chaisson bailed out of his rush and then made a really great athletic play to get the INT. And it was obvious in both the SF and the CAR games that their defenses were also waiting to jump on the screen game. Which is why Coen's been trying to mix in more downfield passes, so the offense is less predictable.
Now, you apparently think that Coen should just run in all of those situations? And can't see how becoming even more one-dimensional could work against TB's offense downrange? Interesting take, given NFL history since, idk, the beginning of time.
Sidenote: when considering White's avg/carry it's important to take into account that when TB is in goal-to-go/short yardage situations, he's usually the RB, which means he's often running some kind of short-yardage play anyway. Not saying he'd average a lot more than he is if he wasn't, but if he's running 10%+ of his rushes for short-yardage, that is going to have a negative effect his overall average.
You're not going to like this.
Yards per carry when you take away 3rd/4th short and goal line.
White- 4.7
Irving- 5.8
Tucker- 8.6
Why wouldn't I like this? It's not about liking it or not anyway. You just proved my point. Taking away short yardage situations, White's avg does in fact go up, and is more than satisfactory in the NFL. It's not as high as Irving's or Tucker's, but 4.7yds/att is more than adequate in this league, no?
And again, Tucker's avg is inflated by his very small sample size. He wouldn't be averaging 8+yds/att if he was getting RB1 reps all season long.
And finally, White isn't the RB1 because he's the best rusher. He's the best pass-protector and probably the best receiver. It's the entire package of he can run the ball well enough, he blocks better than the other two, and he has not only the best hands of the RBs, but he gets open, and catches passes in the scramble drill better than the other two.
If your point is his ypc goes up when you take out short yardage you don't have a point because basically every RB's ypc goes up when you take out short yardage. He's not running the ball well enough, he's an ineffective runner that only has a respectable ypc because the Bucs run blocking is so good. That's why the other two RBs are so far ahead of him. When you get good backs behind a good line you get Irving and Tucker numbers. When you put a bad back behind a good line you get White numbers.
Can Irving/Tucker pass-pro as well as White? Can they run routes and catch as well as White? Have they shown that they can get open the way White does in the scramble drill? ANd since when is a 4.7yd/att average not good enough in the NFL?
If they can, then Coen would be dumb to keep putting White in. But as far as I can tell, neither can do everything that White can do. It's not about just which is the best pure RB. Especially when your OL isn't protecting for very long.
This is exactly the problem. Coen is priortizing passing attributes over running attributes. Bucs are 4th in yards per carry and the teams we're behind all have running QBs. If we're 4th in yards per carry why are we only 16th in rush attempts? The crux of the issue is that Coen doesn't really want to run the ball. We saw it vs Carolina and vs the Raiders.
Ah, you see passing as a problem. That's your issue. Well, hate to break it to you, but in the modern NFL you can't just run it all the time. The defenses in this league will stop you. Also, rushing effectively requires that your OL block up consistently, nearly perfectly. One whiff at the POA, and most of the time the play fails.
Here's the thing: in today's NFL, on average, it takes 6+ 1st down conversions to drive 70+ yards. If you have to do that rushing, even at a 7yds/att clip (which isn't really a thing in the NFL but whatever), you're talking about nearly 10 1st downs per drive. Mathematically, that's a losing proposition. Which is why no one does that, not even BAL/PHI. Passing downfield eliminates several of those 1st-down conversions, and obviously it's easier to convert 3-4-5 1st-downs than it is trying to convert 6+.
You need the passing game to get chunk plays so you literally have to run fewer plays, so your team doesn't have to be perfect/near perfect so many times in a row.
The problem with TB is that Godwin got injured. Now, they literally only have one really reliable receiver in Evans. Otton has improved over last season, but he still has a drop issue and sometimes just doesn't run good routes. So he still has inconsistency issues, and TB still needs more production from their receivers when Otton isn't playing his best.
So what Coen is doing is trying to find at least one, if not two, more other receivers that can be consistent targets to replace some of Godwin's efficiency/performance. They have to find those targets through Shepard, McMillan, Miller, Jarrett, whoever. Otherwise, defenses can key on Evans and Otton, key on the screens/short passing game (as SF/CAR/LVR did most recently), and make TB a one-dimensional running team.
Which means Coen is going to keep calling passing plays over running plays, because these young/inexperienced receivers need live reps, Baker needs to develop chemistry with these young/inexperienced receivers, and Coen needs to see what these guys can and can't do in the next 4 weeks.
It may look like a struggle at times, but this is what needs to happen for this team to grow/develop enough to be competitive in the playoffs. If the only goal was to get into the playoffs/just win games, then sure, run the ball 40+ times/game. I doubt LAC would let you do it, but what the hell, we're just trying to win one game, right? But such a team would likely be one-and-done in the playoffs, where you're facing the best defenses/DCs.
You literally just wrote a bunch of bullshit. The Panthers and Raiders couldn't stop our running game. Not in the 1st qtr, not in the 4th qtr/OT. And there Coen was, getting sacked out of FG range on run downs. Baker had 5 turnovers on run downs. Newsflash to everyone. Our running game is really good, especially without White.
Lol, okay. Whatever floats your boat. And I never said TB's running game wasn't good. Don't know where you got that. But TB won't be playing CAR/LVR in the playoffs, will they? But if you can't see that TB needs to have an effective passing attack to be competitive in the playoffs, well, I don't know what to tell you, other than good luck with that.
Ah, I see where you misunderstood me now. This is what I said about CAR/LVR:
"defenses can key on Evans and Otton, key on the screens/short passing game (as SF/CAR/LVR did most recently), and make TB a one-dimensional running team."
What I thought I made clear here was that all of those teams obviously were jumping TB's screen/quick passing game. Chaisson's INT was a textbook example of that. He obviously studied the tape, and as soon as Wirfs faked his block (not very convincingly unfortunately), Chaisson bailed out of his rush and then made a really great athletic play to get the INT. And it was obvious in both the SF and the CAR games that their defenses were also waiting to jump on the screen game. Which is why Coen's been trying to mix in more downfield passes, so the offense is less predictable.
Now, you apparently think that Coen should just run in all of those situations? And can't see how becoming even more one-dimensional could work against TB's offense downrange? Interesting take, given NFL history since, idk, the beginning of time.
I didn't misunderstand anything. Coen called a shitty game. Why is he 60% pass, 40% run in a game we're leading the entire way, running for 6 yards a carry and Mayfield is turning the ball over and running into sacks? He got away with vs Carolina (luck) and vs the bad Raiders but if he isn't run heavy Sunday we will lose. And if we get to the playoffs he cannot be balanced, we don't have the WRs or the defense for it. The blueprint for the Bucs to win with this roster is run run run run.
“Another mini-thread here, expanding on Bucs' offensive success on first down. The key is getting first downs on first down -- Bucs were last in the NFL last year, getting them just 15.1 percent of the time. This year? Second-best in the league at 26.0 percent (behind Ravens).
What's curious is the first-and-10 run/pass split is nearly identical to last year -- Bucs run on 52.7% this year, and they ran on 53.6% last year. The difference is three plays over the course of an entire season. They're just much, much better at running the ball.
Last year, Bucs were last in the league on first-and-10 runs, averaging 3.35 per carry. This year, they're 7th-best, averaging 5.01, with rookie Bucky Irving leading the way.
Baker Mayfield has been outstanding on first-and-10 -- he's second in the NFL in completion percentage (76.1, behind only Goff) and second in passer rating (108.1, behind only Burrow). They have eight touchdowns on first-and-10 plays, tied for the most in the NFL.
Protection on first-and-10 plays has been exceptional: three sacks in 335 plays, less than one in 100 plays. Only the Packers and Panthers have fewer sacks on first and 10. Last year, Bucs gave up eight first-and-10 sacks in 403 plays.
They also like throwing to Bucky Irving on first down -- he's now second on the team in first-down receptions, and 20 of his 36 catches this year have come on first down. Mike Evans leads the team, and he's third in NFL on first-down catches on first down (behind Chase, Jeudy).
The net result of all of this is Bucs average 6.6 yards per play on first and 10, fifth-best in the NFL, after averaging 5.3 yards/play and ranking 21st last season. The biggest reasons are Liam Coen at OC and a much improved offensive line.“
Per Auman via Twitter
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Coen, while having room for growth, has been pretty much elite all year long. And that’s with an idiot HC who’s handicapped him the majority of the season.
Why is he 60% pass, 40% run in a game
Like I said, the real world does not work as you keep suggesting. Two reasons that stand out if you look at the 1st half (too lazy to do it all )
the flow of the game (time and D&D) and
MANY of our passes are screens, so extension of the run game anyway
the first drive -- 85 yards and it is 58% pass, 42% run for a TD
the second drive -- only 6 plays and it is 40% pass and 60% run for a TD (explosive pass and run)
the third drive -- pass and run and the INTERCEPTION is the same WR screen that would be the winning TD later. Its just a great play by their DE. and, to the point made by another poster, the Raiders saw the WR screen coming (unlike the later play for a TD)
4th drive - the FUMBLE. if you watch the series Mayfield fumbles in an all out blitz. We are passing on that down because WR Palmer complete whiffs a block to pick up first down on a 2nd a 3 on a WR screen. So the drive is pass, run and then screen pass that forced what was to be a 3rd and 3 pass to Evans (for a 1st down) (definitely could've run here)
the 5th drive -- 50/50 but infected by a penalty. The Bucs go RUN, RUN, False start, Pass (screen to Tucker), so its 3rd and 9 and a pass that becomes the sack and even a declined HOLDiNG. We PUNT
SO TO THIS POINT WE ARE pretty balanced RUN/PASS, especially if you take the screens RUN game
But the Raiders make it 14-10 and the get they ball to start the 2nd so COEN GOES AGGRESSIVE working under a CLOCK and starting from our own 31.
6th drive - We go Run, Pass (explosive), pass, SUCCESSFUL SCREEN to White for a 1st down that is blown up by HOLDING, so we go from 1st down to 2 and 11. Pass that becomes a sack. Its a pass because of D&D and TIME. Successful pass that becomes a 4th and 4. Successful pass that draw a PI for a 1st down.
RUN and then Mayfield throws a total crap INT. 100% on him FORCING IT we are in FG range.
We are 2nd and 1 at the 20 with only :39. It is the PERFECT take a shot down BUT if the shot isn't there the QB is supposed to throw it away. Mayfield does not.
COEN is already running the ball. The 2nd qtr/3rd qtr slump is more EXECUTION than play mix
In the 3rd quarter we get the ball ONCE (lol) and we go RUN, RUN . . . False start
They're just much, much better at running the ball.
Lots of reasons for this, including the change at Center, addition by subtraction with run game coordinator Harold Godwin, and Coen is extremely multiple in the run game.
Quite the transformation, for sure.
