What's curious is the first-and-10 run/pass split is nearly identical to last year -- Bucs run on 52.7% this year, and they ran on 53.6% last year. The difference is three plays over the course of an entire season. They're just much, much better at running the ball.
Last year, Bucs were last in the league on first-and-10 runs, averaging 3.35 per carry. This year, they're 7th-best, averaging 5.01, with rookie Bucky Irving leading the way.
Baker Mayfield has been outstanding on first-and-10 -- he's second in the NFL in completion percentage (76.1, behind only Goff) and second in passer rating (108.1, behind only Burrow). They have eight touchdowns on first-and-10 plays, tied for the most in the NFL.
Protection on first-and-10 plays has been exceptional: three sacks in 335 plays, less than one in 100 plays. Only the Packers and Panthers have fewer sacks on first and 10. Last year, Bucs gave up eight first-and-10 sacks in 403 plays.
"INTERPLAY". ^^^^^
First and 10 is the true CHOICE down, especially early or even score.
If the defense is facing an offense that can rip off 5 yards RUNNING ("averaging 5.01, with rookie Bucky Irving leading the way") its WAY easier for the QB to complete passes (Mayfield 76.1% completion percentage) on the same 1st downs and of course the protection is also great on those 1st downs ("three sacks in 335 plays") because the defensive line has to account . . . FOR THE RUN.
Coen makes this part - d-line having to account for run - REALLY tough because he passes out of run formations. makes everything look the same etc
Compare this to 2022 when we have the GOAT at QB but ZERO run game or 2023 where there was a COMMITMENT to running but the run game sucked because Canales couldn't do what Coen did this year which was ADAPT.
Canales was just RUNNING a system he had seen for years. Coen is DESIGNING and adjusting plays
They're just much, much better at running the ball.
Lots of reasons for this, including the change at Center, addition by subtraction with run game coordinator Harold Godwin, and Coen is extremely multiple in the run game.
Quite the transformation, for sure.
Absolutely.
addition by subtraction with run game coordinator Harold Go[o]dwin
Most of the credit to Coen for sure BUT this one ^^ is true and perhaps one of the under appreciated stories IF you looks at the background of Goodwin from the Arians years n ow on to the Panthers
addition by subtraction with run game coordinator Harold Go[o]dwin
Most of the credit to Coen for sure BUT this one ^^ is true and perhaps one of the under appreciated stories IF you looks at the background of Goodwin from the Arians years n ow on to the Panthers
Just like the "Bowles is a COVER ZERO guy" diatribe from earlier in the year:
LOL. man . . . Canales disagrees, right?
In this past season, Canales was given the credit FROM PEOPLE LIKE YOU for the offensive production. Canales, not mayfield. So start with that "Cananles is the genius" position and watch the circular logic unfold
the circlualr logic unfolds BECAUSE what was nearly the FIRST MOVE of Cannales the Genius as a HC? The guy who got the credit for the Bucs 2023 offensive output. Canales, gets the BIG job and almost IMMEDIATELY brings over Goodwin. And someone here CORRECTLY POINTS OUT THE PLAYER DEVELOPMENT . . . and you say "development, shme -velopment . . its the run game."
And you say that AFTER watching a run game with very similar talent TO A NON-EXISTENT RUN GAME THE YEAR PRIOR (something Goodwin actually complained about to the PRESS) and even now with a rookie G (who he develops) and a back-up C. .. and anyone with eyes sees that run game GROW and IMPROVE through the season AND . . . . wait for it . . .WITH NOTABLE ADAPTATIONS BY GOODWIN TO the Genius's run game, right?
DURING THE SEASON you could actually see the run game MORPH from the Genius's mid-zone, under center play action, bootlegging run game to a run game that betters meshes with our QB (EG playing out of SG) and our lines ability (LESS RELIANCE ON ZONE RUNS) and that GROWTH even features some very public coaching (hit the hole, take what is there, run with violence) of our lead RB that you can see play out in during the games . . .
and this last part you say the lateral move is "not a good look for Bowles" but that also would mean a GOOD LOOK FOR CANALES THE GENIUS RIGHT? Goodwin was with him for only a year . . but you take issue with the "less than stellar" run game . . . . WHEN CANALES THE GENIUS CLEARLY DOES NOT
So Canales is a genius, responsible the offensive production . . not mayfield . . but as one of his first moves he decided to convince a guy who cannot coordinate a run game to come over . . .LATERALLY .. .
"the wheels on the bus go round and round . . round and round"
The obvious takeaway from the last two seasons side-by-side should be that Goodwin is a GOOD COACH who was MARGINALIZED in 2022 by the impact of Brady TO THE THE POINT THAT HE OPENLY TALKED ABOUT IT IN THE PRESS (almost NEVER happens in the NFL) and that like every Bucs coach 2023 was a no improvement in talent year BUT he still developed an actual running game and it was NOT the base running game of the new OC
For goodness sake that new OC wonder kid turned HC scooped Goodwin right up
Loons are gonna loon.
Loons are gonna loon.
I mean, exactly right?
Check in after Week 13: Rachaad White is the starting RB.
We're in December. The shameless one still cannot admit he was wrong. White isn't dancing, and hasn't since the end of last season, and is still #1 on the depth chart
Why is he 60% pass, 40% run in a game
Like I said, the real world does not work as you keep suggesting. Two reasons that stand out if you look at the 1st half (too lazy to do it all )
the flow of the game (time and D&D) and
MANY of our passes are screens, so extension of the run game anyway
the first drive -- 85 yards and it is 58% pass, 42% run for a TD
the second drive -- only 6 plays and it is 40% pass and 60% run for a TD (explosive pass and run)
the third drive -- pass and run and the INTERCEPTION is the same WR screen that would be the winning TD later. Its just a great play by their DE. and, to the point made by another poster, the Raiders saw the WR screen coming (unlike the later play for a TD)
4th drive - the FUMBLE. if you watch the series Mayfield fumbles in an all out blitz. We are passing on that down because WR Palmer complete whiffs a block to pick up first down on a 2nd a 3 on a WR screen. So the drive is pass, run and then screen pass that forced what was to be a 3rd and 3 pass to Evans (for a 1st down) (definitely could've run here)
the 5th drive -- 50/50 but infected by a penalty. The Bucs go RUN, RUN, False start, Pass (screen to Tucker), so its 3rd and 9 and a pass that becomes the sack and even a declined HOLDiNG. We PUNT
SO TO THIS POINT WE ARE pretty balanced RUN/PASS, especially if you take the screens RUN game
But the Raiders make it 14-10 and the get they ball to start the 2nd so COEN GOES AGGRESSIVE working under a CLOCK and starting from our own 31.
6th drive - We go Run, Pass (explosive), pass, SUCCESSFUL SCREEN to White for a 1st down that is blown up by HOLDING, so we go from 1st down to 2 and 11. Pass that becomes a sack. Its a pass because of D&D and TIME. Successful pass that becomes a 4th and 4. Successful pass that draw a PI for a 1st down.
RUN and then Mayfield throws a total crap INT. 100% on him FORCING IT we are in FG range.
We are 2nd and 1 at the 20 with only :39. It is the PERFECT take a shot down BUT if the shot isn't there the QB is supposed to throw it away. Mayfield does not.
COEN is already running the ball. The 2nd qtr/3rd qtr slump is more EXECUTION than play mix
In the 3rd quarter we get the ball ONCE (lol) and we go RUN, RUN . . . False start
fLoW oF tHe GaMe... jesus christ do you guys believe the nonsense you post?
2nd qtr, up 14-0, 2nd and 3 at Raiders 44. Incomplete pass on 2nd down, strip sack on 3rd down.
2nd qtr, up 14-7, 1st and 10, first play of next possession, SACK.
2nd qtr, up 14-10, 2nd and 1 at Raiders 37, pass, holding.
2nd qtr, up 14-10, 2nd and 1 at Raiders 20 after Tucker for 9 on 1st down. INTERCEPTION. (Bucs had all 3 timeouts so yes they can still run the ball).
3rd qtr, up 14-10, 1st and 15 after two runs for 19 yards, pass, pass, sack. Yes, you're allowed to run on 1st and 15 when they can't stop you.
4th qtr, up 14-10, 1st and 10, incomplete pass, run for 4, incomplete pass, punt.
Nobody has yet to answer why we're 16th in rush attempts despite being 4th in yards per carry.
To move away from Biggs feckless trolling . . how's this for a headline
"Buccaneers’ Offensive Coordinator Predicted as Next AFC West Head Coach"
GULP
fLoW oF tHe GaMe... jesus christ do you guys believe the nonsense you post?
It's a waste of time with the loon.
Nobody has yet to answer why we're 16th in rush attempts despite being 4th in yards per carry.
Agreed we should be running more. But, the difference between us being 16th in rushing attempts per game and being in the Top 10 is less than 1.0 carries per game.
Again, I agree that we should be running more. Especially with the stable we currently have. And, with our QB reverting back to being a turnover machine.
Speaking of Baker, the video breakdown that Ledyard just released was a great watch.
Miss him here at PR. Guy was awesome at film breakdowns.
Nobody has yet to answer why we're 16th in rush attempts despite being 4th in yards per carry
that probably says more about he questionER than the QUESTION, right?
I mean, Biggs is the BIGGest White supporter on the board, especially when White is in STREET CLOTHES . . and he's seconding your post NOW
pretty telling
Speaking of Baker, the video breakdown that Ledyard just released was a great watch.
Miss him here at PR. Guy was awesome at film breakdowns.
Really good analysis by Ledyard here. I quibble on a few small points, but overall very good.
It also confirms a lot of the pressure Baker faced was more or less his fault. He was jumpy and skittish in the pocket too often, missed open receivers, and held on the ball too long.
fLoW oF tHe GaMe
Eagles are the top rushing attempt team because of Barkley and Hurts
Bucs ---------------- 20 attempts, behind all 4 quarters
Browns. ------------ 36 attempts, always tied or in the lead
Giants ------------- 45 attempts, tied and then leading 3 of 4 quarters
Bengals ------------39 Attempts, tied or leading 3 of 4 quarters
Obviously the flow of the game impacts the running game, so much so that there are several advance metrics that try to account for game flow:
Run Pass Ratio
Run Pass ratio stats show a team’s percentage split between running and passing plays. Because game context often dictates a team’s decision to pass or run, Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) is also shown."
I mean . . ThEre are several AdvAnce MetriCS . . .
Speaking of Baker, the video breakdown that Ledyard just released was a great watch.
Miss him here at PR. Guy was awesome at film breakdowns.
Really good analysis by Ledyard here. I quibble on a few small points, but overall very good.
It also confirms a lot of the pressure Baker faced was more or less his fault. He was jumpy and skittish in the pocket too often, missed open receivers, and held on the ball too long.
Agreed on the one or two things I thought he was nitpicking.
Aside from that, it was spot on.
The 40 points are great. The offensive line is a great strength of the team. I still feel he's leaving 70+ rushing yards on the field every game.
1st and 10, 2nd and medium/short running (not counting mop up)
25 carries, 170 yards. 84% of these runs went for 4+
1st and 10, 2nd and medium/short passing
6/10, 50 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT. 2 holdings and a sack. 13 pass calls, 25 net yards and a turnover.
This offensive line and Irving have gotten to the point where it should be run on 1st and 10, 2nd and medium/short until they actually stop us. In the last 3 games Baker also has 6 turnovers on run downs.
