I keep seeing references to Winston's penchant for INTs and a comparison to Favre.
What drives me crazy about this (and should drive you crazy) is the gross ignorance of when Favre played and who he was.
People who compare Favre to Winston are just displaying football ignorance. I get it when fans do it, but analysts and media? It's embarrassing.
Here's why:
1) INT% First, you should look at INT% instead of just number of INTs to account for total throws. More throws = more INTs, even if you're a more capable QB.
In 1992 Favre was a part-time starter with an INT% of 2.8% (3rd best in the NFL).
1993, first year as full time starter, it was 4.6%, 29/30th in the NFL. Bad.
But in 1994 it was 2.4% which was 7th best!
For 3 years ('94-96), Brett Favre threw very few INTs and was top 10 in INT% (coinciding with his 2/3 MVPs).
The next 3 years ('97-99) Favre was bottom 10 in INT%.
And then after that ('00-07), Favre was league average for INT% right around 16th in INT%, with the exception of 2003 and 2005 where he was at the bottom.
The point is in Green Bay, Favre had a good season of INT%, a bad one, 3 good ones, 3 bad ones, and then was league average except for when he was 34 and 35 years old.
Favre's first 5 years as a starter, he had a 2.9 INT%.
2) Stats get worse as Favre aged (duh). Comparing the full 20 years of Favre's career to the first 5 of Winston's is deceptive.
Unsurprisingly, Favre threw fewer TDs and yards, more INTs (etc) as he aged. 36 year old Favre was not as good as 25 year old Favre.
3) This is baked into the INT% point above, but the eras are COMPLETELY different.
It's tough to compare Brady and Brees early tenure to today's NFL, never mind Favre's in '90s.
Every single QB stat is better in today's NFL than in the 1990s (or 2000s). TDs, yards, INTs, you name it.
The crazy part is that, in this completely different era, Favre had more TDs, fewer INTs, a better TD%, a better INT%, and almost as many yards. In the 90s!
Favre's career 3.3% INT% is league average in the 1990s (never mind his 2.9% over his first 5 seasons).
Over the past 5 years? 30th, 28th, 29th, 27th, 29th.
4) Favre was just a flat-out better QB. Like far, far, far better.
We can stick with INT% - Winston's best INT% was 2.5% (which was during his 2nd worst statistical season otherwise). Favre had an INT% lower than 2.5% 3 out of 5 years.
This doesn't even get into the fact that Favre in his first 5 years had won 2 league MVPs and led the NFL in TDs 2x (he was 2nd in 1994). Again, remember his INTs by volume were low.
There were MULTIPLE years were Favre was the best QB in the NFL.
P.S. What about by age? Comparing by age is stupid, but by the time Favre was 25 he was 2nd in the NFL in TDs, 4th in DYAR, 6th in COMP%, 5thin yards, 7th in INT%, etc.
Aka a great QB.
5) What about Winston?
Looking at yards, TDs, TD%, INTs, INT%, COMP%... Winston has only been top 10 in ANY of the stats once (9th in TDs in 2016). He is on pace to be top 10 in yards and TDs in 2019.
Don't think of whether that's bad or good... just think of it in comparison to Favre.
Over this period Favre was repeatedly #1 in these categories. He was repeatedly DOMINANT, not just good. And he avoided the lows of repeatedly being in the bottom of INT% like Winston.
It's just not even close.
You know whos' like Favre? Mahomes. Not Winston.
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Q&A
A) What about the team?
Favre (obviously) had a much better team over his tenure than Winston.
I mean, it wasn't all good. His first 3 years they went 9-7, then 11-5, and then were dominant at 13-3.
And how much of those teams being good was Favre throwing for an insane # of TDs and very few INTs? That makes every other part of the team much better.
And even if we dismiss that, the team difference doesn't account for the performance discrepancy. Bad defenses typically help a QBs stat sheet because of lots of shootouts and prevent defenses (if not the win column).
You can say you can't compare Favre's win% to Winston's and that's completely true. But the statistics? There is just such a discrepancy.
B) What about advanced stats?
I'd have to build that out on my own because most aren't easily accessible/comparable. Just take too much time.
But given the difference we already see, they would skew the data even more in Favre's era.
C) What about Favre's reputation as an INT-machine?
This is an interesting football history question I'm not wholly capable to answer. You'd really have to go back and review in detail Favre's history.
To my mind, it was really Favre's first couple seasons where this was true. It was largely 1993 and half of 94 where it was a concern. Then he turned it around and threw very few INTs for a number of years (including the total of 1994, where he was a 5th in INT%).
As well, he just played so long that his INT totals are high. I mean, Peyton Manning is 9th. Marino 8th in all time INTs. Drew Brees is 15th.
Ultimately it's a combination of his first 2 years + his longevity + people looking at INTs, not INT%.
