As Buc fans, most of us did not care about Brady except that he loses because he is Darth Vader to coach Belichick being Emperor Palpatine. Many of us hear the rhetoric that Brady possesses a wet noodle arm and would not fit well in a vertical offense.
Fortunately, BrickWallBlitz does an in-depth dive into the "Deep Ball Project". They have been tracking this idea since 2014 (iirc). And they keep on revising their research work. For the 2019-20 season, a deep ball is a ball thrown at least 21 yards and beyond to qualify.
Here's the breakdown comparison:
== Overall Accuracy ==
Winston: 44.05% (21st out of 32 QBs)... on 84 attempts
Brady: 46.00% (16th out of 32 QBs)... on 50 attempts
== TD to INT production ==
Winston: 8 TDs, 3 INTs
Brady: 5 TDs, 2 INTs
So far, both players are similar in production. Remember, Tampa is the more vertical team and, thusly, produces more volume in throwing deep.
Accuracy, Production VERDICT: Similar (Push)
Now, let's do some deep diving into categorized areas.
== Under Center ==
Winston: On 39 attempts, 65.52% (7th)
Brady: On 11 attempts, 27.27% (30th)
== In Shotgun ==
Winston: On 55 attempts, 25.45% (32nd / Worst)
Brady: On 39 attempts, 53.85% (5th)
Both players threw more out of Shotgun than under center. Winston threw 65% In Shotgun and Brady threw 78% In Shotgun. Without the help of the possibility of playaction, Winston is abysmal in Shotgun formation as he ranks last out of all of the qualified QBs. Whereas with Brady, you're getting a top-5 deep ball accurate QB.
Formation VERDICT: Brady
Open Window v Tight Window
== Open Window ==
Winston: On 32 attempts, 56.25% (26th)... 0 INTs
Brady: On 17 attempts, 70.59% (10th)... 1 INT
== Tight Window ==
Winston: On 52 attempts, 36.54% (10th)... 3 INTs
Brady: On 33 attempts, 33.33% (15th)... 1 INT
I have been following Winston's deep ball progress for several years and what is baffling is he usually more accurate in tight windows than in open windows, which makes no sense at all. His tight window throws also induce a lot more INTs.
Brady is similar in accuracy in tight window throws, but does not turn the ball over as much as Winston does. Brady has a 3.0% INT rate in tight window throws and Winston has 5.7% INT rate in tight window throws, to show apples to apples comparisons.
Brady is quite proficient with open window throws and that could mean the difference in extending a drive or stalling on a drive. There is a significant difference between 56% and 70%!
Window VERDICT: Brady
PROTECTION Comparison: Clean v Pressure
== Clean ==
Winston: On 45 attempts, 48.89% (16th)... 2 INTs
Brady: On 43 attempts, 51.16% (12th)... 1 INT
== Pressure ==
Winston: On 39 attempts, 38.46% (19th)... 1 INT
Brady: On 7 attempts, 14.29% (28th)... 1 INT
Winston and Brady are similar in clean pockets, with the exception that Winston is still turnover prone.
With pressure, Winston excels more than Brady does. Brady rarely puts himself into pressure situations. This is where Winston's "hero ball" antics pits him into more situations like this.
Another factor to this would the QB's respective team's offensive lines. According to Football Outsiders, New England's pass blocking ranked 5th overall while Tampa Bay ranked 22nd overall.
If Brady is to survive here, then Tampa needs to shore up the offensive line talent and in a hurry.
Protection VERDICT: Winston
What is odd about this deep dive is that the Bucs are not all that much of a vertical offense, with respect to deep ball percentage to the overall throws.
== Deep ball throws v Total throws ==
Total Throws
Winston: 626 attempts (33 TDs, 30 INTs)
Brady: 613 attempts (24 TDs, 8 INTs)
Deep Ball Throws (21+ yards)
Winston: 84 attempts, or 13.4% of the total throws (8 TDs, 3 INTs)
Brady: 50 attempts, or 8.15% of the total throws (5 TDs, 2 INTs)
Non-Deep Ball Throws (under 21 yards)
Winston: 542, or 86.6% of the total throws (25 TDs, 27 INTs)
Brady: 563, or 91.8% of the total throws (19 TDs, 6 INTs)
Tampa is not that much more of a vertical offense when only 13% of the throws are deep throws, which is only 5% more than what New England throws deep.
Now, take the non-deep balls and we see just how far more efficient Brady is to Winston, with essentially 90% of the throws!
== TD to INT Differential ==
Winston: 25 TDs - 27 INTs = -2 differential
Brady: 19 TDs - 6 INTs = +13 differential
Remember, Winston threw 7 pick-6's this year. Having Brady for the 90% of non-deep ball throws makes the Bucs' offense far more effective! And here is the scary good part, Brady's receiving corps is nowhere near as good as the Bucs' receiving corps!
Non-Deep Ball VERDICT: Brady
