As there is every year, there's a lot of blaming a unit or two for the Bucs woes. "If only the [insert X] was better, this team would be winning." Pass rush, secondary, offensive line, kicker, you name it.
Well guess what, the defense everyone is blaming is better than you think. And I'll show you why.
Everyone's looking at the defense and seeing 31 points/game (32nd) and the offense's 28.9 (3rd) and seeing a great offense and bad defense.
Except, just looking at points/game ignores CONTEXT. It ignores offensive and defensive turnovers. It ignores matchups. For example, did you know the Seattle defense is worse than the Bucs?
Let's do this.
1) The Bucs team is 22nd in DVOA (22nd O, 21st D).
DVOA (from Football Outsiders) is a stat that is primarily about context. A 3 yard run on 3rd and 2 is better than an 8 yard run on 3rd and 10. 20 points against the Patriots is better than 20 points against the Dolphins. Context context context.
There are more graphs and discussion here: https://www.pewterreport.com/forums/topic/bucs-season-so-far-bucs-d-o-discussion-mega-thread/
In EPA/play (another great measure) the Bucs D is 16th and the Bucs O 18th.
What is this telling us? The Bucs D and offense are both average on a per/play basis.
So what's going on?
2) The Bucs O is a turnover machine. Its INSANE.
Ready to be shocked. Not only is the Bucs O 2nd in turnovers with 21 (the D is 9th in takeaways!) but THEY'VE HAD 12 TURNOVERS IN FIELD GOAL RANGE.
Think about that. Of 18 turnovers (3 were pick-6s) the Bucs O has turned the ball over on average at the Bucs 40 yard line. 3 turnovers have been in the Bucs 10 yard line.
If the Bucs D plays every TO perfectly and gives up 0 yards, that's 36 points.
More realistically, if the Bucs D split those TOs in their end between TD/FG, it's 60 points, plus the direct 23 points from Pick-6s/safety = 83 points in 9 games.
In that case, the Bucs D would be 18th in points against.
5) Unfair? Let's look at another team - Washington
But that's a bit crude. Let's compare the Bucs to a terrible team with worse QB play and roster: Washington.
Washington is below average in giveaways with 14 (ranking 20th). Keep in mind Keenum or an unprepared Haskins are playing behind a bad OL (minus Williams) and throwing to a 3rd round rookie and Paul Richardson.
Of those 14 turnovers, 2 have been pick-6s and 5 have been in field goal range.
So if we use the same crude metric (split TD/FG, don't count other TOs) the Redskins O has "given up" 23 points + 14 in pick-6s = 37 points.
So just using this rough calculation, the Bucs O is responsible for 60.1 points/game MORE than the Redskins O. Or, 6.7 points/game which would make the Bucs D 20th in points/against.
And again, this is ignoring the 6 other Bucs turnovers that were on the other side of the 50.
4) Look at the other teams top 5 in giveaways
Top 5: Giants, Bucs, Dolphins, Bengals, Browns.
Which of those teams have good defenses? Coincidence?
Never mind that the QBs starting are Daniel Jones, Fitz/Rosen, Dalton/Finley (had to look at that up), and Mayfield. Of course, giveaways aren't INTs (for which the Bucs have 14th and are 1st).
And again, the Bucs defense is 9th in turnovers with 15.
Conclusion/ tl;dr
I hope this back-of-the-napkin argument shows how, while the defense isn't great and the pass defense worse, the Bucs D has been average just like the offense.
This is without going into time-of-possession (where the Bucs O is 28th/drive) or other stats that show how deceptive just looking at points/game is.
Like the Bucs O having the 10th best starting field position, or that the Bucs D has the 4th WORST starting field position (turnovers being a big part).
The Bucs O is making the Bucs D look a lot worse. If the Bucs O was just AVERAGE in turnovers, the Bucs D would be ~average in points/against.
