I lost my first version to cyberspace yesterday, so I’ll retry. FWIW, my personal preference is to draft one of the big 4 OTs in R1 (my post combine mock draft a few weeks ago was Big 4 OT, S Winfield, Edge Zuniga, WR Gibson, OG Simpson, RB Evans, LB Gay) but I’m exploring a different approach here.
I decided to consider a draft with the following dynamics:
1. Bucs sign a safety, backup QB, and receiving back
2. Bucs believe they have their starting OL in place
3. Bucs believe they have all starters filled on defense
4. Bucs in win now mode and prefer to not start rookies
5. 2020 scouting research hampered by COVID- supports quantity approach
6. Research suggests a significant drop-off in starter potential after R3
Although the Bucs appear to have starter positions covered in this scenario, they have atrocious depth and are highly vulnerable to significant injury-related drop-off except at the TE and iLB positions. A logical strategy would be to maximize round 2-3 picks (with an emphasis on R2) to secure future starters who can contribute in year 1 and replace injured starters as necessary (but not start immediately).
The draft is dynamic with infinite trade possibilities; nevertheless, I examined options based on current draft slots, the JJ trade value chart, and other team goals. I believe there will be high demand for the #14 pick for WR/CB. Teams like Philly and Minny could realistically be interested. I also believe that there are always trade opportunities in R1-2 if a team is willing to accept “reasonable” compensation. For example, Miami could decide they want 4 picks in R1 to address QB, WR, OT, and iOL/RB to set up their offense with difference-makers for long-term success and have the draft capital to do so.
“Haters gonna hate” and some will complain that a double trade down is unrealistic; nevertheless, teams have done it in the past and it is a logical strategy if you’re not targeting day 1 starters and see draft depth. We all know that Licht has been poor with R2 picks, but this is a forward-looking approach that postulates that R2 should provide high quality players with significantly lower cap hits than R1.
A pathway to maximize R2 picks could look like:
1. Trade #14 to Minny for #22 & #58 (Minny drafts WR or CB)
2. Trade #22 & #117 to Miami for #39 & #56 (Miami drafts OL or WR for new QB)
3. Bucs now own 4 R2 picks and 4 R3-6 picks (39,45,56,58,76,139,161,194)
I’d prioritize OL, Edge, and WR since I believe they are higher impact than RB and S (and average positional salaries strongly support this belief- money flows to its highest use). Based on current NFL economics, there’s a strong argument that you can always sign a fairly priced S or RB to adequately cover those positions and avoid using high picks on these positions. I’m torn on a rookie QB early. If there’s someone the Bucs love in R2/3 (i.e. Eason), this creates a pathway, but otherwise, QB could be targeted in R4 or later as a long-term development project.
Mock projections are all over the place after the first ~20 picks, especially in regards to OL, but I tried to be realistic. Based on the stated parameters, a “depth draft” that produces multiple future starters could look like:
39: C Ruiz (Michigan): G Muti (Fresno St) or G Kindley (UGA) could work if he’s gone; OT Jones or OT Jackson would be great here if they fall, but this looks to be the area where the best iOL will be drafted.
45: DT Madubuike (TAMU): I’ve been uninspired by this DT class and am probably forcing this high potential pick who should add weight (but he is very strong, quick, and productive). RB, Safety, shifty WR, and future QB are strong considerations here, but I think DT has far greater value for this team after picking up a FA RB, QB, and safety.
56: OT Wilson (UGA)- high potential but needs seasoning… should have returned to UGA to become a 1st rounder. OT Cleveland may also work here.
58: Edge Zuniga (Florida)- great measurables and production when he’s on the field. We NEED another Edge rusher; Okwara (ND) could also work
76: WR Claypool (ND)- great size/speed combo.
139: WR/RB Gibson (Memphis)- I’ve loved him since the combine, but he may be gone. QB of the future would also make sense here.
161: RB Evans (App. St.)- See Gibson comment
194: LB Gay (Miss. St.)- Tremendous potential if he gets his head right
Some athletic players I’d also target late/UDFA include Edge Toohill (Stanford), S Muse (Clemson), CB Robinson II (Tulsa), and TE Keene (VT).
This draft provides immediate part-time contributors, injury-related quality depth, future starters, and cap flexibility in 2021+. It’s not sexy, but would be highly beneficial.
