I'm curious to see what thoughts others here have on why quarterbacks (I'm asking you to limit comments to the quarterback position only) have such a high failure rate in the NFL. Since there is a good possibility that we will take a quarterback somewhere in the draft, I'd like to know what some fans think about what causes or creates a failure/successful transition. With the NFL being a quarterback driven league and has been for years, no single position probably comes under as much scrutiny yet, most college quarterbacks fail to make that transition. Even players that are almost considered to be lock to be franchise quarterbacks fail at alarming rates. Yet, evidence also shows that most of the current quarterbacks that do succeed are drafted in the first three rounds (usually the first) and often the player that isn't considered the 'best' at draft time is the guy that ends up being the best of the group. We all know that there are situations where a quarterback with talent is drafted into the wrong system and has even a harder road to success, but even players that end up in what could be considered a good situation can fail. Some quarterbacks do well from the start, like Luck and Wilson, while others take some time to get going (Eli Manning, Cam Newton). What I'm trying to get at is, that you would think that after all these years teams would be better at drafting the most important position on the football field than they are, yet picking a quarterback in the first round is still mostly a crap shoot. For example, some here favor Manziel, others wouldn't touch him. Some like Bortles, others seem to think he's not going to be much better than Glennon. Most here seem to dislike Carr (although I think some of that is by association to his brother) while PR seems to think that the Bucs will take him simply because Tedford has familiarly with his brother. Finally, most here feel Bridgewater is probably going to be a success in the NFL, but reports are coming out that he might not be the 1st or 2nd quarterback even taken (yes, I know about smokescreens :) ).Anyway, for those that deem to comment, why do you think the quarterback you like is going to be a success in the NFL and why do you feel any confidence that the Bucs coaching staff has the ability to get him to that level? If you feel that a player has ability, but don't feel that the Bucs have the coaching staff to develop it, then why even take that chance? Or perhaps, better, which quarterback of the top four or five do you think has the best chance to succeed with the current coaching staff, not necessarily the quarterback that has the best talent? Open for discussion.
Some get drafted into bad situations. Some get drafted into perfect situations.
Because so much of what they do in college doesn't translate. Offensive systems create video game stats that don't show ability to make real throws. Throwing windows are insanely tighter in the NFL. Defenses and offenses are light years more complex. Basically teams fail big time evaluating the mental side of these guys. There is also way too much arrogance to look at a prospect and say "you can't coach that arm" and assume YOU are the guy who can coach them up in the head. The next thing down the list is accuracy,meal NFL level accuracy including ball placement.
IMO, since there are only 32 starters at the position the odds are stacked against the player at this specific position automatically. Several teams employ running back by committee approaches. Some teams have three WR that are all productive but you never see a team use more than one starter at a time at the QB position. Chances for success are limited based on lack of opportunity alone.I also believe that the time spent by defenses watching film and practicing is so much greater at the NFL level and that makes a big difference too.Many college stars get by on superior talent alone but that levels out in the NFL when QBs are now facing the best defenders at each position. In many cases, they are facing some of the best talent that they've ever seen on a regular basis. What Dal said above about the throwing windows is so true. Football is truly a game of inches and that extra step that college WRs get is dramatically reduced in the NFL. Guys who are used to throwing to open receivers struggle when they can't "see" the open man and they have to now throw to a spot.Coaching, systems and surrounding talent also have a lot to do with a QBs success or lack of it.Having a successful QB definitely makes life easier.
Ball placement, and delivery speed are not emphasized much from the scouting reports. There is the mental side of things, but even smart QB's fail at the NFL level if they don't have a quick delivery and good ball placement.
Easy answer.A lot of variables.Teams, situations, coaching changes, system changes, timing, abilities, playcalling, divisional preferences, continuity, and even injuries. All of these things can limit or help a qb.For as many years I have watched football, there are always a few teams playing against their qb with their system, or trying to do more than they actually can.It's the most coveted position in football, so there is always a lot of pressure as well. In today's nfl, it's almost a prerequisite for a qb to be of sound mind. If not, they are going to fail, no matter what their abilities lead anyone to believe. Physical stature will not matter quite as much as it used to be going into the future, but the combination of both is what will be the most deadly.We currently have two completely different styles of qb's going to the sb. But both are pretty smart with what they do with the ball.
So far, nothing anyone has mentioned is all that earth shattering. Every point that has been made is true, but what makes Tampa a good fit for a quarterback? Tedford seems to have a knack for taking a good high school quarterback and making that player into a 1st round draft pick, but most of his quarterbacks have been failures, maybe not abysmal failures, but you can't point to the guy and say - this guy makes successful NFL quarterbacks.We have all seen players that might have been great or at least good quarterbacks drafted into bad programs. Take David Carr for example, considered by many to be a can't miss prospect and drafted into what appeared to be a good situation with a offensive minded coach in Texas. However, after getting sacked at a record rate, the guy never could recover to be even a decent quarterback. So did the system fail him, or did he have some undiscovered flaw that the team should have seen? We see so called analysts talk about pocket presence as if this is something that is easy to define, yet we constantly see quarterbacks that don't seem to master it - although they might have been credited with that in their college career.Okay, the game IS faster, the players are generally smarter, the players generally play meaner. Still, the drafting of a quarterback is still more luck it seems rather than science. If you are a team's GM or coach, your whole career can often be defined by who you pick (or pass on) at the quarterback position. To the best of my knowledge, Smith only drafted one quarterback high, Grossman, but to say Grossman was a successful pick is a stretch, yet the man got his team to the Superbowl and is still playing in the league today. Dilfer made it to the Superbowl and won, but no one here would call Trent anything but a bust in Tampa. These guys must have had something that set them apart from players like Leif and Akili Smith, yet they didn't have something else that Manning, Brady and Brees had. So, who's the best fit? Which prospect has the best chance to succeed in Tampa? Or which quarterback is the least likely to succeed if chosen?
Carr is a good example to use, along with Rodgers, two Tedford QBs. But they were put into two completely different situations. Carr- started right away on an expansion team. Got shell shocked. Rodgers- sat 3 years behind Favre, took over a pretty damn good team. If you switch their situations I'm not sure Rodgers wouldn't be considered a bust and Carr wouldn't be on his way to the hall of fame.
It's numbers. There are only 32 teams. 32 starting QBs. You can't have 32 good QBs. Every times two teams play one QB is going to play better than the other one. Over the course of 16 games, some QBs are going to play consistently better than others. That means at most you have maybe 20 good QBs. We're just about to finish the 2013 season. The oldest good QB was drafted in 1998. So the good ones can stay in the league for upward of 15 years. There just aren't that many openings for good QBs because the good ones that have been around for a while aren't going anywhere. So the best QBs in one particular draft class aren't just competing against each other; they're competing against every QB drafted in the past 15 years. That's a lot of QBs.
high stress high pressure positionusually dont go to good situations if they get drafted highcoachingtheres so many factors why a QB can fail
You also have to throw in the fans as well into the mix. A lot of fans think that x player can be the saviour of their team and that we must draft them above all others only for them to turn on said player within 2 years because the player doesn't play up to the same standards of the Eilte QBs who have been in the league for years. Thus clamouring for the next donkey in the headlights with a highlight reel who they suddenly think is the answer.
Carr is a good example to use, along with Rodgers, two Tedford QBs. But they were put into two completely different situations. Carr- started right away on an expansion team. Got shell shocked. Rodgers- sat 3 years behind Favre, took over a pretty damn good team. If you switch their situations I'm not sure Rodgers wouldn't be considered a bust and Carr wouldn't be on his way to the hall of fame.
Carr didn't get all that much coaching from Tedford to be fair. He was a freshman/backup when Tedford was there.
Why? Because it is the hardest position to play. To be a good+ NFL QB you need to be smart and athletic with quick reaction time. Many other positions can lean more on being strong or fast and even those are areas that can get better with training. By the time a QB is drafted, their cognitive ability to process information quickly and react to it is about as good as it will get.
Some who watched his progress will tell you that Aaron Rodgers needed that 3 year Green Bay bench ride to retool himself into an NFL QB...That's a luxury for most teams.
A LOT of it is bad coaching. Bad scouting, people not being able to handle pressure. Some of these busts have had horrible coaching.
