Winston-Mariota Could Be the Next Manning-Leaf By Mike Freeman , NFL National Lead Writer Mar 27, 2015 
David J. Phillip/AP Images The off-field concerns teams once had about Jameis Winston are mostly gone. Numerous team officials say that as teams have met with Winston, he has answered every question and eradicated most doubts about his past.One particular interview with an AFC team at the scouting combine typified how the process has gone for Winston. He was asked extensively about his off-field incidents and very little about actual football. A team source said they were stunned at how well Winston handled the questions.At the owners meetings this week in Phoenix, Bucs coach Lovie Smith affirmed this, saying, via Pro Football Talk's Darin Gantt, "I believe in second chances, after I've done my research. We feel very comfortable with who Jameis Winston is, what he’s done, and what he can become. Jameis Winston is definitely on our board."The on-field concerns teams once had about Marcus Mariota are mostly gone.Numerous team officials say that as teams have met with Mariota, he has answered every question and eradicated most doubts about his ability to adapt to the pro game and handle a pro-style offense.One particular interview with an AFC team at the scouting combine typified how the process has gone for Mariota. He was asked extensively about his on-field capabilities and if they could translate to the pros. A team source said they walked away thinking Mariota could handle anything in the NFL. Anything.At the owners meetings, Titans coach Ken Whisenhunt affirmed this, saying, via The Associated Press, "He's done a nice job in the time I've spent with him. We spent time with him in the classroom. We worked him out. He exhibits a lot of the qualities that successful quarterbacks have. He doesn't turn the ball over a lot, is accurate when he throws it, can extend the play. His team gravitates toward him, you can see that. He has a lot of those things that those quarterbacks who have been successful in the league have."
MICHAEL CONROY/Associated Press What we have now is Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf 2.0.Team officials have repeatedly made the comparison to me.The league is becoming divided on Winston and Mariota, as it was on Manning and Leaf.The football arguments in 1998 between Manning and Leaf were similar to the ones now between Winston and Mariota. Bill Polian, who picked Manning for the Colts, wrote of the Manning and Leaf debate in his book The Game Plan: The Art of Building a Winning Football Team.Wrote Polian:“ The closer we got to the draft, the louder the "noise"—opinions from draft media analysts far and wide—became, until it reached a crescendo. You were hearing all of the negatives about Peyton Manning: "He's a product of the system. ... He's not a good athlete. ... He has a weak arm. ...He can't win the big one." On the contrary, you were hearing nothing but accolades for Ryan Leaf: "He's a natural thrower. ... He has a cannon arm. ... He can make people miss when he runs. ... He's the second coming of Roger Staubach."”Polian goes on to say the person leaking these rumors was an influential agent at the time, Leigh Steinberg. But I can say, as someone who covered the Leaf-Manning debate extensively, this wasn't entirely the case.The NFL was genuinely divided. Leaf was seen as just as talented as Manning.Polian basically later admits this in his book:“ I reminded myself and others in the building, "Tune out the noise! Tune out the noise!" I even delivered the same message in my public comments, saying, "We are going to ignore the noise; it's not part of the equation. We are going to make the decision based on what we believe to be sound football reasons."Yet, there I was, on a Sunday, watching the tape of Peyton's throws and hearing all of that "noise" in my head: "He doesn't have a strong arm. ... He can't make the deep throws. ..." I began to focus on every pass in his career that traveled more than 40 yards and what I found out was that, once the ball got beyond 60 yards, he started losing accuracy.The next morning, I got Tom Moore and Bruce Arians together, and said, "I think you have a ceiling on Manning's arm at about 60 yards."They both look at me as if I were crazy. I could see in their eyes that they were thinking, "He's lost it. We're working with a guy who has lost his marbles and he's in charge of the franchise!" Tom then looked up and said, dryly, "Well, then, Bill, we'll be sure not to throw any passes over 59 yards."”We know how it turned out that year. Manning—who actually had an off-field issue of his own and was lucky he had his in the pre-Twitter age—became a Colt and is a future Hall of Famer. Overthinking his talent would have been a mistake. Leaf—who interestingly was seen mostly as squeaky clean—flamed out and has had major issues later in life.
Julio Cortez/Associated Press Seventeen years later, there is more second-guessing and re-examining, this time with Winston.Teams are starting to believe the talent gap between Winston and Mariota isn't as large as once thought. Before the combine, several execs estimated to me that the preference around the league was maybe 70-30 in favor of Winston. Now, it's 50-50, those execs say.I think that's wrong. To me, Winston is clearly better. But it's what's happening. There's been a leveling.It's a virtual certainty that Winston and Mariota will be the top two picks in the draft. Four different general managers told me they believe the Titans will trade the second overall pick. One GM said the Titans have made it clear the No. 2 spot is for sale. One team executive I spoke to estimated there's a 50-to-60 percent chance the Titans move the pick to a team that wants Mariota; another said it's almost a certainty."This league is starving for quarterbacks," that last exec said. "Mariota is food to a starving man."
Ryan Kang/Associated Press Whether teams should still be concerned about Winston off the field or Mariota on the field is a different story. Teams are doing what teams always do when evaluating players with potential issues: rationalizing. The bottom line is that almost every person you speak to in football believes Winston and Mariota will go first and second in the draft.The pro-Winston teams are willing to take a risk with potential off-field problems. (It should be noted that teams believe there will be few off-field problems for Winston.) The pro-Mariota teams are willing to draft a slightly less pro-ready player they believe has far fewer chances of getting into off-field distress.Winston-Mariota has become a full-fledged argument. It's close. Really close.This draft will be historic. And if it follows suit with Manning and Leaf, one of these guys will be great and the other…not so much.link
