SR states "This year, Tampa Bay will likely need to win another Wild Card home game for Bowles to remain the head coach."
Is this really true? There is not a lot of support for Bowles on this board and I'm pretty noncommital myself about his future. Even though we are about to wrap up the division, I don't see people advocating for keeping Bowles. I just think it's a better option than the alternatives. But what about Licht and the Glazers? Are they ready to make the move even if we win the division again? Are they ready to make Coen the head coach and head into the critical 2025 season with a rookie head coach and an unknown defensive coaching staff? SR implies that they are ready for that. That take surprises me, but maybe it's true.
The Bucs will play one of the Commanders/Packers/Vikings/Lions. All tough opponents.
In the hypothetical event the Bucs go 10-7 and then lose that first playoff game, will that be the end of the Bowles regime?
Makes some sense so yes maybe, but if they were to fire Bowles that would just mean Coen as HC.
I think it would be really interesting to see what they did though if we win against the Saints and then have a close loss against a better team in the playoffs. In that instance and if you take Coen as he recent words (Canales said similar) then Bowles probably stays even with the playoff loss
My guess:
If, Bucs lose to Saints and miss playoffs, Bowles has 10% chance to keep his job. Feel with the pressure of retaining Coen, the disappointment of being 2 touchdown favorites at home and still cant rally the troops, they would pull a Lovie-Koetter here and have the ammo/support to do so.
If, Bucs lose to Saints and backdoor making playoffs, lose in first round, Bowles odds jump to 33% chance to keep his job. Still has the impressive resume of making playoffs every year but still, didn't improve on last year and lucked into playoffs
If, Bucs beat the Saints and lose in the first round (to Minnesota/Detroit), Bowles has an 90% chance to keep his job. Bucs would have won 6 out of their last 7 regular season games and faced a tough opponent
If, Bucs beat the Saints and lose in the first round (to Green Bay/Washington), Bowles has 75% chance to keep his job. We will likley have been favored in this game so can see it going down a bit.
If Bucs win a playoff game, Bowles has 100% chance to keep his job.
It’s clear that Bowles is unpopular here but it should be just as clear that IF you think this team is truly on the verge of a SB then you should want both Bowles and Coen because change is usually (not always) a step back.
Usually a step back because the defense, in this case, has to get different type of players and learns a new scheme.
Bowles defense has won a SB recently and in a dominant fashion. Just bring in some talent. Sign Crosby and some LBs and a CB and a second safety. If the Bucs defense played like 2023 we are at 12-13 wins.
i agree with this.It’s clear that Bowles is unpopular here but it should be just as clear that IF you think this team is truly on the verge of a SB then you should want both Bowles and Coen because change is usually (not always) a step back. .
SR was on with TKraz and clearly said "The Glazers" when talking about who would be making the decision in the offseason. In his article he said The Glazers and Licht. So at least in SR's eyes the Glazers will be making the decision.
And the Glazers were not afraid to make the change with Tony Dungy after his third straight winning season at 9-7. They fired Superbowl winning Gruden after two straight 9-7 seasons. In both cases it was clearly the Glazers making the call.
But I'd venture to say we've never had a GM who has the respect in NFL circles and probably the trust of the Glazers like we do now with Jason Licht. Will the Glazers trust the process Licht has put into place? My gut says Licht still wants to keep the band together in 2025 and the Glazers would go along, but we can't lose Coen. If Coen is on the verge of taking another job then the Glazers are more like the fans in this case and they'll step in and hire Coen and put Bowles out to pasture. That's why Bowles might as well cozy up to the one year option.
I don't think Bowles is in automatic job loss territory if the Bucs make the playoffs and lose in the first round. This season is just a continuation of last season which is developing young players on the roster while navigating a cap crunch.
I think what really matters is how the team looks in the final game and in any playoff game.
Dungy's teams in the playoffs looked bad. Gruden failed to make the playoffs when they just needed to win one game down the stretch.
If Bowles teams looks competent by winning their final regular season game and ready to play ball for the playoffs he probably sticks around.
The passage of time usually provides the insight lacking in real time. In 2022 Bowles was the scapegoat for a season that was DOOMED right from the start. Another tidbit today in a JBF article discussing how Bowles teams have often bounced back
"Joe will start with Tom Brady bailing on 2022 training camp for 10 or 11 days.
A few days after Brady left, an assistant coach told Joe. “I’m not sure Todd [Bowles] really knows exactly what’s going on with Brady.” Man, talk about a distraction!"
One reason i have suggested that the Bucs FO might have had a pretty different take on Bowles over his tenure.
Goodwill runs out though so may need this win.
One local reporter says Bowles is NOT getting fired even if they lose tonight. Not sure about that but the reason given is that the owner and GM attribute the CULTURE to Bowles.
that comes up a lot
”
In that moment, Coach Dungy was saying, ‘Oh, no, you don’t give him the pass. There’s no way. It could be an interception,'” Harrison said on an NBC preview of tonight’s playoff game.
“I said, ‘Coach, it’s bigger than that.’ I said, ‘It’s bigger than that. If they don’t get this man this record, this team is going to be affected by it. They know how hard [Evans] works, how much of a productive player he’s been. This is very important to that team.’
“And for them to get him that record and be that excited for him, that’s the culture that Todd Bowles has built.”
I am not sure why a reporter would post that because anything can happen when the games are played. But after the outcome of the game it seems Bowles will be giving one more year. But the Glazers have made changes before well beyond what we deem as the window of time for a firing and hiring of coaches.
I am not sure why a reporter would post that because anything can happen when the games are played. But after the outcome of the game it seems Bowles will be giving one more year. But the Glazers have made changes before well beyond what we deem as the window of time for a firing and hiring of coaches.
yeah would take like a Mike Tomlin, maybe Bill Bellichick type interest for us to fire Bowles...and even then in todays NFL, we all prefer offensive minded head coaches.
and while i think there's little chance Bowles is fired this year, i think the odds grow to "70%" when it comes to next offseason. He will be entering the last year of his contract and the Bucs will likely make a call then to either fire or extend. I'm guessing they fire unless the Bucs can move the needle talent wise to compete with the Lions, 49ers, and Eagles. Hard to imagine them advancing to NFC Champ game which that is what it may take next year, at the very least one playoff win but i'd garner 2.
I am not sure why a reporter would post that because anything can happen when the games are played.
One reporter who said this was Ira Kaufman and he said it based on a conversation with Licht that mirrored this
"Speaking on the team’s radio network last night, Buccaneers Ring of Honor general manager lauded the Bucs’ culture and operation.
“It’s a good time to be a Buc,” Licht said. “We’re doing a lot of great things, the entire organization. A lot of stability has helped. Obviously, great players, great coaching. So it’s an exciting time.”
I am not sure why a reporter would post that because anything can happen when the games are played.
One reporter who said this was Ira Kaufman and he said it based on a conversation with Licht that mirrored this
"Speaking on the team’s radio network last night, Buccaneers Ring of Honor general manager lauded the Bucs’ culture and operation.
“It’s a good time to be a Buc,” Licht said. “We’re doing a lot of great things, the entire organization. A lot of stability has helped. Obviously, great players, great coaching. So it’s an exciting time.”
Licht also went on to say this right after the playoff loss and it was telling:
"It's just kind of the cycle that we're in with this team," Licht said. " Two years ago when we had the — I don't want to say rebuild — but we knew it was going to take some time to fill every spot on the defense. Is there some spots that we could add to? Of course. But it takes time. And what [Todd Bowles] has done with what we have, I think, has been remarkable."
i mean, there was little chance of Bowles getting fired this year - at least based on performance.
i think with the Jaguars having Coen on a 2nd interview, the betting odds may have increased a bit with a "promotion to the front office" but still the Bucs were able to working something out.
i do think now though, the expectations will be higher. More cap room to work with, Baker in his 2nd year under Coen, a top 5 offense, and a track record of making playoffs every year.
Bowles is coming up on a contract year after the 2025 season. They will make a call on it next January. He most definitely will have to win a playoff game to have a chance but i'd say it's more likely than not that Bowles is fired following the 2025 season and Coen is made head coach. Would put it 70% in my way too early prediction.
i do think now though, the expectations will be higher.
Absolutely
Bowles will be coaching next season for an (unlikely?) extension
I don’t think Bowles is thinking beyond 2025 as a head coach. I absolutely think he and Coen are being considered for their next positions with the organization.
Could be retirement, could be that if his team meets/exceeds what will no doubt be extremely high expectations - but unless this runs off the track badly - Bowles is not getting fired.
We have all seen that continuity, consistency & culture in winning organizations result from planned/calculated outcomes, not hopium. It appears to me we have that.
Todd will get the chance he earned - and he’s a good man and a great leader of men - but stubborn beyond belief - he needs to adapt & trust his offense.
Lots of FO/HC offseason battles ahead - extensions and re-working of contracts to get us some cap space - edge/CORNERS/coverage LB to get in free agency - and they’re expensive - and then draft some defensive depth at some of those same spots.
Glad we’re stable on both sides of the ball - but we’ve got some stuff to work on. Fortunately, the organization is NOT one!
