PFF Rankings: NFL starting quarterback rankings for 2019
BY STEVE PALAZZOLO
AUG 19, 2019
PFF’s quarterback rankings are based on grading every player on every play and tapping into multiple years of data to project future performance. We go beyond just last season’s performances, and the grading works to isolate each quarterback’s performance from that of his supporting cast, making for more effective projections. The rankings are then tiered in order to gauge where each player stands and also highlight that the difference between No. 14 and No. 16, for example, is negligible. The NFL is in a rich time for middle-class signal-callers, and that’s why so many land in Tier 3.
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3: Volatile or conservative quarterbacks whose production will rely even more heavily on supporting cast and play calling. Tier 3 quarterbacks can post top-10 production in any given year in the right situation.
11. CARSON WENTZ, PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Coming off season-ending injuries in each of the last two years, Wentz is still primed for a big year given his offensive line and his plethora of playmakers. His near-MVP season of 2017 (No. 5 PFF grade at 84.9) saw him lead the league in accuracy percentage on tight-window throws while dominating on third downs, two impressive feats, but ones that are bound for regression from what the PFF data has told us through the years. That’s exactly what happened last year, as he fell to the middle of the pack in both departments. If Wentz is going to get back into the MVP race, he’ll likely need to get back to the 2017 form that saw him lead the league with a big-time throw percentage of 6.4%, a number that fell to 4.5% last year, good for 14th in the NFL.
12. DESHAUN WATSON, HOUSTON TEXANS
Watson has two excellent statistical seasons under his belt, though he’s gotten there in different ways. His rookie season saw an incredible big-time throw percentage (8.3%), but also some interception luck and garbage-time success that led to the shiny stats. Last year, he played a more consistent brand of football, going from one of the worst rates in turnover-worthy throws to 10th-best while ranking third in the NFL in the percentage of positively graded throws during the regular season. Watson’s mobility has worked both for and against him as his 60 scrambles (third-most in the NFL since 2006) led to 481 yards last season, but he was also sacked a league-high 61 times, including 14 that were directly his fault. Watson must continue his progression in the short and intermediate game while still showing off the special plays that have helped him elevate a limited supporting cast.
13. JARED GOFF, LOS ANGELES RAMS
There’s no doubt that Sean McVay and excellent play-calling have aided Goff’s development, but he deserves credit for improving his game every year in the league. Goff has led the league in passing yards off play-action in each of the last two years, and he’s advanced from ranking 15th in PFF grade in 2017 to tying for 10th last season. Even with the improvement, Goff hit the worst three-game stretch of his career late last season, though he bounced back to lead the Rams’ Super Bowl charge. Goff improved his accuracy last season, ranking above average on all throws at 10-plus yards down the field, but he must continue to advance with his decision-making where he ranked only 24th at avoiding turnover-worthy plays.
14. KIRK COUSINS, MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Since taking over as a full-time starter in 2015, Cousins has four years finishing in the top-10 in passer rating, but only one year finishing in the top-10 in PFF passing grade (ninth, 2016). The disconnect comes from Cousins getting help from a strong group of playmakers through the years but also playing a more conservative brand of football at times when aggressiveness is in order. He’s more than capable of making big-time throws and pushing the ball down the field, but last season saw Cousins fall more in line with recent Vikings quarterbacks, as he ranked fourth in the league at avoiding turnover-worthy plays, the fifth straight season and fourth different Minnesota signal-caller to rank in the top 10 in that department. The offshoot was just the 20th-ranked big-time throw percentage and just a No. 31 ranking in positively graded throws. If the Vikings are going to get their money’s worth with Cousins, perhaps a bit more unleashing is in order, as he’s shown capable of making plays at the intermediate and deep levels throughout his career.
15. MATTHEW STAFFORD, DETROIT LIONS
Perhaps no quarterback in the league tantalizes with high-end play as often as Stafford, though it usually comes out two to three times per season rather than an entire season at a time. At his best, Stafford makes throws with arm strength and accuracy, both on and off schedule. However, he’s only ranked in the top-10 in PFF grade twice in his career, and last season lacked the high-end brilliance from previous seasons. It was a much more conservative passing game last season and losing Golden Tate hurt Stafford’s production, as he ranked just 26th in positively grade plays, and his average depth of target on completions was only 5.1, the fourth-lowest mark in the NFL since 2016. It’s a tricky balance when trying to tap into Stafford’s strong velocity and off-balance magic while trying to corral him into a safer brand of football, but much like Cousins, perhaps an unleashing is once again in order to see if he can carry the offense on the back of downfield chunk plays.
16. CAM NEWTON, CAROLINA PANTHERS
The definition of a volatile down-to-down quarterback, Newton has ranked in the top-10 in PFF grades just twice in his career, and his 86.5 grade during his MVP campaign of 2015 is the only year in which he’s graded above 80.0. Despite that fact, Newton has the second-highest percentage of positively graded throws since entering the league in 2011, while annually ranking among the worst at avoiding negatives. Last season saw a style change that led to Newton ranking 10th in the league in passer rating and 14th in PFF grade as his average pass traveled about three yards shorter per attempt than we’re used to seeing from him. Injuries aided in his second-half decline, but it remains to be seen if Newton can sustain his success with a different style that saw him rank just 32nd in big-time throw percentage, normally a big part of his game and an explosive element that is needed for the Panthers.
17. DAK PRESCOTT, DALLAS COWBOYS
After an impressive rookie season that saw Prescott rank eighth in PFF grades, he followed it up by ranking 19th in 2017 and 20th last year. Prescott’s throw-by-throw grading has him on the more conservative side, with two top-10 rankings at avoiding turnover-worthy plays while never ranking better than 22nd in big-time throw percentage. That leaves him dependent on his playmakers in order to produce in the passing game, and that group was in steady decline until Amari Cooper arrived and played like a top-10 wide receiver during the second half of 2018. Adding to the issues for Prescott, he was charged with a league-high 15 sacks last year, while ranking just 25th at avoiding negatively graded throws. Even with his added rushing ability, Prescott has settled in as a mid-tier quarterback whose production is more dependent on his supporting cast, and this will be a big year to see if he can get back to his rookie levels of efficiency.
18. JIMMY GAROPPOLO, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
While Garoppolo has looked like a top-half-of-the-league quarterback when on the field the last two years, his lack of availability has been a concern. At his best, his quick release and accuracy lead to some of the league’s best play in the short and intermediate range, though the downfield passing game has been a work in progress. Garoppolo takes care of the football with one of the lowest turnover-worthy play percentages in the league, despite some interception luck during his strong 2017 run in San Francisco. Garoppolo is in a good position to produce as Kyle Shanahan’s system has consistently elevated quarterback play, it’s just a matter of staying healthy and putting together a full season of action.
19. DEREK CARR, OAKLAND RAIDERS
Things were trending up for Carr in 2015 and 2016, but he’s ranked just 21st and 19th in PFF grades over the last two seasons. Carr generally does a good job of taking care of the ball, but 2016 saw him rank 10th in big-time throw percentage, a ranking that has dropped to 29th and 18th over the last two years. Like the other quarterbacks in this tier, Carr must be aggressive enough to take advantage of an arm that can zip it down the field and drop it in with touch while keeping his ability to keep turnover-worthy plays on the low side. Carr’s first season on new head coach Jon Gruden saw him tie for 37th with an average depth of target of only 7.5, a number that likely needs to increase if he’s going to live up to his potential.
20. ANDY DALTON, CINCINNATI BENGALS
There was a point in Dalton’s career in which he was the poster child for “average” quarterback, with his 2015 season the perfect example of a group of excellent skill players being able to elevate him to top-10 production. However, an influx of similar talents has pushed Dalton down the list of rankings in recent years. He got off to a good start last year, showing off his usual quick release and solid accuracy while sprinkling in a few off-script plays that have been needed for a while in order to elevate his game. A new scheme may instill even more life into Dalton’s game, and head coach Zac Taylor and company must take advantage of Dalton’s accuracy in between the numbers, particularly on seam routes.
21. JAMEIS WINSTON, TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Like Newton, Winston is on the extreme end of volatile as a passer, ranking first in positively graded throws since entering the league in 2015 while also posting the second-highest percentage of negatives. It’s due in part to Winston’s downfield aggressiveness that has seen him post the three biggest years in terms of yardage coming through the air (line of scrimmage to target point) rather than after the catch. This profile is similar to Carson Palmer, another gunslinger who saw his best success under Bruce Arians, the new head coach of the Bucs. Arians may be able to turn Winston’s downfield acumen into a more efficient product if he can help cut back on Winston’s turnover-worthy plays where he hasn’t ranked better than 20th during his career, including the second-highest mark in the league last season.
22. MARCUS MARIOTA, TENNESSEE TITANS
It’s a make-or-break season for Mariota who has had bouts of good play during his career but is still plagued by inconsistency. Mediocre performance from a clean pocket throughout his career is a concern, but for such an athletic quarterback, Mariota has struggled to bridge that gap with plays outside the pocket where he has the ninth-worst grade in the league since entering the league. Overall, Mariota has yet to post a PFF grade of 80.0-plus in his career, and the Titans have a decision to make about whether to continue to build around his skillset or to move on after the season given the number of mid-tier quarterbacks currently available in today’s NFL. This has a chance to be the best group of playmakers during Mariota’s career, so a statistical uptick is not out of the question even if he continues his baseline of play.
For all tiers...
https://www.pff.com/news/pro-pff-rankings-nfl-starting-quarterback-rankings-for-2019
