I'm going to do some film study on our offense over the next couple weeks (as its going to be so imperative to winning this game). But first the research findings on 1st down Expected Points Allowed (EPA) Per Play Type and Efficiency (measured as the ability to achieve the goal of the play) and some data on the best offenses and ourselves.
Brian Burke, FBO, and several other researchers have achieved consensus on the following. Given an average Rushing and Passing Offense and Rushing and Passing Defense on the field simultaneously (this research started in the early 2000s and EPA differential of Run vs Pass has only increased over the years). On 1st and 10 in the NFL:
* The EPA of a Run and a Pass is extremely stable (particularly Run) despite "Likeliness of Passing (LOP)" or "as the scores between the two teams separate" (the final 2 minutes of halves is not included in the data that produces the analytics).
* The EPA of a Play-Action Pass (PAP) is stable for neutral to low score spread situations, but then precipitously decreases as LOP increases until the EPA of a PAP actually falls below that of both a Pass and a Run play, falling below Pass at a 60 % increase in LOP and falling below Run at a 75 % increase in LOP.
* Broadly speaking, Running nets NEGATIVE EPA. Passing nets POSITIVE EPA. Further, the % differential is significant. Further, PAP in neutral situations nets POSITIVE EPA and the % differential above even Passing is significant.
* PAP success does NOT depend on past success running the ball, NOR on the number of previous runs.
* Run success does NOT depend on past PAP success, NOR on the number of previous PAP.
* PAP EPA and Efficiency increases in run-heavy situations (eg 3rd and 1 and Redzone Tight).
* Passing is more Efficient than Running except for Short Yardage Situations. In Short Yardage Situations, the Run becomes more Efficient than the Pass.
AGAIN, THE ABOVE IS FOR AVERAGE OFFENSE VS AVERAGE DEFENSE. THESE NUMBERS SKEW FURTHER AS ONE PHASE OF OFFENSE BECOMES BETTER THAN THE OTHER AND SAME WITH DEFENSE. 2020 TAMPA BAY IS AN ELITE PASSING OFFENSE WITH A SOLID TO + (IN TERMS OF EFFICIENCY) RUNNING GAME WHEN RONALD JONES IS IN THE BACKFIELD (WHEN JONES ISN'T IN THE BACKFIELD, OUR EFFICIENCY ABSOLUTELY PLUMMETS).
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Outside of the single giant anomaly in the last years (Baltimore with Jackson), what do the highest Points Per Drive and Most Efficient teams do (KC + Brady Pats + GB + NO all the time, Shanahan Falcons, 2018 Rams, 2017 Phil)?
* 58+ % Passing on 1st Down.
* PAP heavy on 1st Down, 2nd and Medium-ish, and Redzone Tight.
* 50+ % Running on Short Yardage Situations. On the occasion they do Pass, its PAP heavy.
* ~30 % PAP as a percentage of total Pass Attempts.
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There are multiple issues here with the 1st down Play-Calling (that will continue to be an issue if they aren't turned around in a few weeks), the efficiency and the 1st Down Rate, and the PAP rate. The comparison with the best NFL Offenses over the last several years should be obvious. But lets compare us to ourselves on the year and our best selves (our Post-Bye 3 game stretch of Atl * 2 and Wash WC - excluding that non-NFL Det game):
OUR ENTIRE REG + POSTSEASON (excluding the not-NFL-Football played in Week 16)
* On the year, we ran the ball too much on 1st down. If you remove 4 minute offense and kneel-downs, its about 51.5 % Rushing to 48.5 % Passing.
* Our 1st Down Success Rate is ~ 46.5 % (excluding Kneel-downs and Clock-kills).
* Our First Down Rate on 1st Down is ~ 20.4 % with us picking up a 1st Down outright on 1st downs ~31 % of the time WHEN PASSING (right at the highest in the NFL w/ DK's offenses...which shouldn't be surprising given what they do conceptually).
* 19.9 % (LEAGUE LOW) PAP rate.
* Points Per Drive was 2.82 (removing Victory Formation Drives)
OUR BEST SELVES - THE 3 GAME RUN (again, removing Week 16 Det) VS ATLANTA TWICE (+ D at 14 DVOA) AND WASH WC ROUND (3 DVOA)
* 45.7 % Rushing to 54.3 % Passing.
* Our 1st Down Success Rate is ~ 50 %.
* Our First Down Rate on 1st Down is ~ 27.9 % with us picking up a 1st Down outright on 1st downs ~34 % of the time WHEN PASSING.
* 26.1 % PAP rate.
* Points Per Drive was 3.42 (THIS ALSO COINCIDED WITH A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN RZ SCORING % DUE TO EXECUTION ERRORS...SO THIS NUMBER IS ACTUALLY DEFLATED IF OUR RZ SCORING % DIDN'T COLLAPSE).
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Conclusions (should be pretty straight-forward).
1) The best offenses in the NFL over the last several years Pass more than we do on 1st down.
2) The best offenses in the NFL over the last several years run a lot more PAP than we do.
3) The best version of our Offense (which played a much higher DVOA Defense schedule with #14 * 2 and #3 * 1 than the duration of our entire Reg and Post Season) was a 3 game run where (a) we Passed a fair bit more on 1st down, (b) we ran a lot more PAP, (c) our First Down Rate on 1st Down increased significantly, and (d) our Points Per Drive dramatically increased (despite an anomalous decrease in RZ Scoring % due to uncorrelated execution errors).
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The implications should be straight-forward, but you also have to look at KC's defense for gameplanning context:
1) Just north of average Defense (probably in the 14ish range) overall with EXTREME variation play-to-play but are SITUATIONALLY DEADLY.
2) Extremely poor in terms of Comparative Efficiency against the Run (55 %) and Poor in terms of Efficiency against the Pass (53 %)
3) Situation Efficiency:
a) EXTREMELY Inefficient against the Pass on 1st down. Balloons to 57%.
b) EXTREMELY Inefficient against the Run on 3rd and 3 or less. 78 %!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
c) Comparatively MUCH more Efficient against the Pass on 3rd and 3 or less. 43 %!
d) THE BEST 3RD AND 7+ DEFENSE IN THE NFL (way better than us, better than LAR, NO, Pitt, Mia, Wash, etc). And this is actually not even close.
4) Extremely poor RZ Efficiency Overall but trending MUCH better in the last 3 games.
5) Average 3rd Down Def.
6) Blitzes a TON w/ a lot of Coverage rotations/traps/robbers to try to generate negative plays (against both the pass and the run). Also plays a lot of Man Blitz. 3rd and Long they are ENORMOUSLY blitz-heavy (which is why they are the best in the league here).
a) # 10 in Turnovers
b) # 19 Sacks
c) # 6 Pressures
d) # 14 Stops (Tackles, including TFLs, that constitute a Play Loss for the Offense)
6) Because of all of the negative plays created, they're north of Average in Points Per Drive given up.
So Gameplanning? What do we do.
* STAY OUT OF 3RD AND LONG.
* SUSTAIN DRIVES TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THEIR POROUS RZ DEFENSE. WE DON'T NEED 50 YARD TDS. WE NEED SUSTAINED CHUNKS AND THEN GET 6 IN THE RZ.
* TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THAT INEFFICIENT 1ST DOWN DEFENSE WITH THE PASSING GAME. RUN A LOT OF PLAY-ACTION 6 AND 7 MAN PROTECTION TO PROTECT AGAINST THEIR BLITZ PROPENSITY (THEY'RE JUST TRYING TO GET TO 3RD AND LONG). RUN WIDE STACK SMOKE SCREENS (THESE WILL WIN AND WHEN WE CATCH THEM IN A DB OVERLOAD BLITZ IT COULD CREATE BIG PLAYS). WHEN YOU RUN, DON'T REDUCE THE FORMATION (LIKE WE OFTEN DO) BECAUSE THIS WILL ALLOW THEM TO RUN BLITZ AND CREATE NEGATIVE PLAYS (LIKE THEY LOVE TO). RUN FROM 11 PERSONNEL AND KEEP GODWIN OUT OF THE BOX (SHORT MOTION WILL REDUCE THE FORMATION AND WILL ALLOW THEIR DBS TO INSERT IN THE RUN GAME TO CREATE NEGATIVE PLAYS).
* 3RD AND 3 OR LESS IS A FREAKING GIMME IF YOU_JUST_RUN_THE_FOOTBALL. RUN THE BALL ON 3RD AND SHORT.
