Anything less than 10 wins and we are moving on from the coach and blowing this thing up.
Somebody is going to ask you to pair that with your McMillan bet!
For my part, that could definitely come true BUT it would take a catastrophic season without something like injuries to offset things.
You can probably find a dozen posters posting some version of that sentiment in 2022, 2023 and 2024 . .. the same time frame that led the owners to extend both Licht and Bowles.
You may have already done this but, if not, when you have time, go look at who needs to be re-signed after this season. Next off-season is going to suck. Not only are our two sure fire HOFers probably going to retire, but, we have to sign many to keep the band together. Certainly Licht's strength but, the year to grab eternity and the roster to do it, is right now!
I could see David but why would Mike Evans retire?
if he breaks Jerry's record? But in todays NFL, everyone and their mother is getting 1,000 yards seasons so he needs to add to it if we wants to maintain the record
Evans is currently at 11 but guys like McLaurin, JJ, and Chase are formidable at 5 in a row, 4 in a row respectively.
Evan is going to turn 32 in August and while he is certainly towards the end of his career, would be surprised if he prematurely called in quits in the offseason.
that being said, there is a reason the Bucs drafted Egbuka so maybe you and the Bucs front office knows something the rest of us dont as it pertains to Evans plans.
Key 2026 free agents:
1. Evans - would imagine they sign him to another deal at his preference of 1 year or 2 year deal; would be surprised if he retired particularly with a QB playing at a high level throwing to him. The guy definitely cares about his legacy despite what Brady or Baker may say about him. Not a bad thing just saying.
2. David - again, his call if he wants to play again but needless to say this is a position we need to pay attention to in free agency/NFL Draft Rounds 1 through 3 next year. I think David at age 36 come January is more likely to retire.
3. Reddick - the biggest boom or bust free agent signing we've had in a while in my opinion. Alot riding on the hopes he is a double digit sack guy; given his age, it's hard to garner his market value but as we sit today, this could either be a critical resigning or a good riddance his contract is up time bullet point.
4. Otton - i mean, hes alright but i wouldn't break the bank for him; maybe a top 16 tight end but not top 10 so again if the price is right great, otherwise, try to replace in draft or free agency.
5. Geodeke - yeah we must resign him
6. White - let him walk
7. McCollum - all depends on how the season plays out; the Bucs clearly drafted 2 cornerbacks in rounds 2 and 3 for a reason. Put it this way, one of Dean or McCollum wont be on the team next year. So if they decide to resign McCollum, they likely get the funding from cutting or trading Dean.
8. Hall - who knows here, is he our new William Ghoslten resigning at affordable prices? either way, not losing sleep if they let him walk
Honorable Mention: Kyle Trask, Sean Tucker
I'm approaching the upcoming season with guarded optimism. I like what the org has done to improve on both sides of the ball. I still have lingering concerns about in game management decisions, and a new OC for the third year in a row.
Meh. Roster rankings are almost meaningless. never saw the point in taking them seriously.
Not only are our two sure fire HOFers probably going to retire, but, we have to sign many to keep the band together.
Not sure its that big a deal given the way Licht has run things.
I think both Evans and LVD retire, but not sure that has some massive impact on the following season. It definitely does in terms of intangibles because you dont just replace HOFers. Their contribution to the team transcends their stats. That said though, both guys are already downside of their peak.
And Licht has already brought in one of the Evans replacement pieces, much to the chagrin of some here.
And we always have "to sign many to keep the band together" and Licht always seems to do it . . even when rebuilding after the Brady-era ie less cap.
It alway seems to work out. Things are always chnaging. 1999 was the must win season for the team. The Bucs didnt re-sign Hardy Nickerson when the Bucs fell short in 99. They won in 2002 with Shelton Quarles at MLB. Sapp and Brooks on thier way to HOF careers . . like Wirfs now. Maybe AWJ
so he needs to add to it if we wants to maintain the record
not sure he wants to because he probably cares less about having the record than getting into the HOF, which breaking the record helps.
I bet he retires. He's definitely one of the best Bucs ever, but he's already slowing down a bit, right?
I could see David but why would Mike Evans retire?
He wants to get the record to 13 seasons.
Fitting.
so he needs to add to it if we wants to maintain the record
not sure he wants to because he probably cares less about having the record than getting into the HOF, which breaking the record helps.
I bet he retires. He's definitely one of the best Bucs ever, but he's already slowing down a bit, right?
i mean, define slowing down?
His yards per game last year were better than his days with Brady in 2020 and 2021; and just 3 yards shy of his career average.
His 11 TDs in 14 games last year were better than his career average
In terms of just barely breaking 1,000 yards; he's done that 4 other times as well with 2014, 2017, 2020, and 2021 so don't think that's an indicator
You got to remember too, the last 5 years, he's been playing on winning teams; so of course, with the days of Jameis Winston, we'd be throwing alot more down in games so his targets were way up
I mean to me, if he retires, it has nothing to do with his on field play and would consider it he's just over football
I mean to me, if he retires, it has nothing to do with his on field play and would consider it he's just over football
Like I’ve said, if he hits 1K this year, he’ll re-up for a final season to try and get 13 seasons of 1,000+ yards (barring injury or off-field stuff).
I'm approaching the upcoming season with guarded optimism. I like what the org has done to improve on both sides of the ball. I still have lingering concerns about in game management decisions, and a new OC for the third year in a row.
I'm with you seekpar. I would add the injury to Wirfs as a concern also.
i mean, define slowing down?
Well, probably not the best choice of words, but I define it as evolving, still productive but in a different way. Like Vincent Jackson etc
Your eyes should tell you two things that are both true -- his is still awesome, but part of that awesomeness is adapting to be a different receiver.
His 17 game averages for his career are:
149 targets -- 2024 he had 110
85 receptions - 2024 he had 74
1280 yards -- 2024 he had a 1004
15.2 y/r - 2024 down to 13.6, maybe the lowest in his career
Those numbers were MOSTLY down because he was INJURED. A hamstring injury (more common for an older strider, but I blame Bowles! lol) so he was on the sidelines for 4 games, I think? But, when he was on the field in 2024 they were also throwing him the ball A LOT ** to get him over the 1000 yard mark ("His 27.3% target share is the highest since Next Gen Stats started tracking that metric in 2018"). And to his credit he was catching the ball maybe at his highest rate ever ("3rd most efficient streak ever"), but the balls were shorter and his use different than his signature stuff.
Pewter Report (Josh Q) summed it up like this:
"Now in his 11th season, there are certain things that have become expected of Evans.
He is going to get 1,000 yards every season.
And he is a downfield ball winner.
That first certainty is still correct. Week 18 will continue his record-setting streak. But that second certainty may not be something that we can count on."
He goes on to credit him while pointing out the evolution. I agree he deserves CREDIT so thats why "slowing down" might have been a bad choice. Anyway here os the EVOLUTION:
"But that doesn’t mean he is any less great. As a matter of fact, it may be evidence he is better than season’s past. And he is developing into a new type of receiver. And that bodes well for him as he moves into a new era of his career."
"His average number of routes per game over his career is 37. Over this most recent stretch he has run 17% less routes per game"
"Only 15% of his targets are of 20+ air yards. That is the lowest rate of his career by almost 4%."
** "Evans is being moved around the field at a higher rate to find him more advantageous matchups and prevent the defense from simply being able to bracket him on one side of a 3×1 as in years past. From Week 12 to Week 16 Evans was in the slot 40.8% of the time. In only 10 other instances has he had a five-game run of higher slot usage."
"He is running go routes, curls, and seams 10% less than he did from 2020 to 2023. In place of those routes are slants, posts, drags and deep crosses"
"All told his route distribution on in-breakers (slants, digs, deep crosses, posts and drags) is up to 6% this year from 33 to 39%. Those have taken the place of the traditional verticals like fly patterns, deep curls and seams. And you can see it in his average depth of target. Evans is on pace for a career-low 13.0 average depth of target'
So, the evolution:
For much of his career Evans was a complete physical mismatch for any corner that would match up with him outside, one on one.
He may still be but the 2024 Bucs did not use him like he was . . . . when he really needed YARDS (not receptions). They moved him around to get him the matchups and then threw more over the middle.
maybe that was just the offense
maybe a combination of the offense and an injury
we will see more in 2025.
Sweet geebus, what a Kamala-esque word salad from the loon.
Sweet geebus, what a Kamala-esque word salad from the loon.
Mike Evans can be, unburdened by what has been!
oh the agony!
How about this . . . you guess the author . . I DARE YA ;-)
"Evans has been the best vertical threat in NFL history"
"Evans average depth of target (ADOT) has somehow never dipped below 13 yards in a season, and only twice dipped below 14 yards in his career. In other words, Evans has maintained elite production despite not being fed manufactured touches and getting basically nothing in the short/quick game. It’s incredibly impressive to produce at this rate while relying purely on targets/catches in lower efficiency areas of the field."
"So how is he doing it? Is there any difference to how Evans is achieving his production compared to years past? Quite a bit, actually. "
"Just 21.1 percent of his routes run are go routes, and only 14 percent of his targeted routes are of that same ilk. Compare that to last year under Dave Canales (21.6% overall routes/18.8% targeted routes) and the three most recent years under Bryon Leftwich and Bruce Arians (29.8%/29.1%)."
"So what routes are replacing those go patterns? A quick look at the numbers shows a massive increase in out and in-breaking patterns compared to the Arians/Leftwich era, which Canales had begun to lean into last year. Under Coen, Evans overall route distribution this season isn’t vastly different from under Canales, but he has become the primary option on far more in-breakers this season"
"Evans is making more of his living on in-breakers than ever before, especially on post patterns."
AND THIS ONE IS EXTRA JUICY:
"Evans has always been excellent at creating space on in and out cuts, but because of his prowess as a vertical receiver and the importance of that role in Arians’ offense, The Bucs were more content with siloing his usage and using him as a decoy when teams chose to roll extra attention his way. Because of their other weapons, and the way it manipulated opposing defenses, this approach was understandable, but didn’t always maximize targets for Evans.
In 2024, the Bucs don’t have Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski or even Chris Godwin for most of the year. "
(A DECOY? THE #1 RECEIVER AS A . . DECOY?)
OR THIS ONE
In 2024, the Bucs have put Evans in the slot on 33 percent of his snaps, third-most in his career behind the 2020 and 2021 campaigns. However, in those seasons Evans usage wasn’t nearly as creative as it is in 2024.
When Evans aligned in the slot in 2020 (37.9%) and 2021 (34.3%), almost 31 percent (!!) of his targeted routes were go routes (28.6 percent of his overall routes).
Fast forward to 2024, and Evans is running a go on just over 14 percent of his slot snaps, and being targeted on those patterns just 3.7 percent of the time! That is a massive difference in what the Bucs were asking him to do a few years ago. Now, Evans is running more posts (he was targeted on zero posts from the slot in 20-21!), up 3.5 percentile points from his numbers a few years ago, and being targeted on over 11 percent of those post patterns from the slot.