Baseball's Sabermatrics create Bill James created an Expected Win Rate for Baseball. Then a gentleman named Daryl Morel applied that Expected Win Rate to other sports, including football. The difference is in the exponent.
Expected Win Rate Formula
* PF = Points Scored ^ Sport Exponential
* PA = Points Against ^ Sport Exponential
* Sport Exponential for Football is 2.37
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Win % = PF / (PA + PF)
I covered this idea at Bucsnation (2016 and 2017 seasons) and thought it would be a good time eater during these times where nothing is happening. The Expected Win Rate is a post-season review based upon the production for scoring and being scored upon.
2016 Season
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Record: 9 - 7
Points For = 354
Points Against = 369
Expected Win % = 47.56%
Expected Wins = 7.6 games won (Round down to 7 games)
Strength of Schedule = 9th
We overachieved in 2016.
2017 Season
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Record: 5 - 11
Points For = 335
Points Against = 382
Expected Win % = 42.28%
Expected Wins = 6.78 games won (Round down to 6 games)
Strength of Schedule = 6th
We clearly underachieved in 2017. Our Oline did fall apart after game 11, though.
2018 Season
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Record: 5 - 11
Points For = 396
Points Against = 464
Expected Win % = 40.7%
Expected Wins = 6.5 games won (Round down to 6 games)
Strength of Schedule = 7th
That defense was simply porous, but we also didn't have an OLine. C Jensen and RG Benenoch/Cappa were beyond abysmal. 2018 was when the Bucs made C Jensen became the highest paid center in the NFL. Tampa could have score more points if it had a proper OLine.
2019 Season
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Record: 7 - 9
Points For = 458
Points Against = 449
Expected Win % = 51.17%
Expected Wins = 8.1 games won (Round down to 8 games)
Strength of Schedule = 18th
We should have broken even as we scored more points than was allowed, but came up short against Atlanta at the home closer. It's the first time in four years were we scored more than allowed, but we remained a fringe team.
Although we scored more points than allowed, we still allowed an astounding 449 points! 449 points ranks us as a 29th ranked defense with respect to points allowed. All those points given up on the weakest SoS (Strength of Schedule) in the past four years too!
With that said, I'm extremely happy to have drafted S Winfield b/c he's an upper echelon coverage safety and we definitely need his skills as we ranked 30th in passing yards allowed. If he can help us bring down our points allowed to under 400 would be a great start. Then again, removing someone who was responsible for 85% of the turnovers would be the most significant action.
