There’s been a lot of buzz about the stark contrast in performance between the Bucs' offense and defense, and it's easy to see why. Just look at this season’s final scores, or observe how our offense is able to move the ball with ease while opponents do the same against our defense. But let’s delve into some numbers that highlight this disparity even further.
- Our offense is on fire, scoring at a franchise-record pace of 29.4 points per game, ranking 4th in the NFL. Over the last three games, we've surged to 2nd in the league with an impressive 36.0 points per game.
- Perhaps most crucially, our offense sets the tone early, ranking 2nd in the NFL for first-half points, averaging 16.9.
- We also excel in the Red Zone, boasting a 3rd place ranking in scoring percentage at 67.74%, and topping the charts at 76.92% over the last three games.
- Our ability to convert on third downs is remarkable, leading the league with a 52.52% conversion rate, and an astounding 63.41% over the past three games.
Moreover, our offense supports the defense by keeping the opposing offense off the field:
- Our first-half time of possession stands at 55.31%, leaving the defense with just 44.69%. In recent games, we've approached nearly 60% time of possession.
Just imagine how much worse our defense would be if they didn’t benefit from an offense that dominates time of possession, converts third downs, plays with leads, and consistently scores points. Coach Bowles couldn't ask for more from an offense than what Coach Coen has delivered.
On the flip side, our defense's statistics corroborate what we've seen on the field:
- We’re allowing 26.6 points per game, placing us 28th in the NFL.
- The defense concedes an average of 387 yards per game, ranking 30th (and 401.7 yards per game over the last three).
- We give up 6.0 yards per play, 29th in the league, but fortunately, our offense keeps the ball away from opponents.
- In recent outings, we've surrendered an average QB rating of 123.0.
- We allow 2 passing touchdowns per game (27th), with a staggering average of 3.3 over the last three games.
The gulf between our offense and defense couldn't be more pronounced. Just think about how much more successful our offense could be if paired with a mid-level defense.
There were some discussions about this prior to the season, many of us knew this. Without JMac, and at least one more (Rakim Jarrett?), stepping up soon, the losses of Evans & Godwin (and to a lesser extent, Shepard) are going to have a progressively worse impact on our offensive output.
Lack of talent on defense is what’s caused the defensive collapse, and at several levels: the secondary (AWJ, Whitehead, and McCollum), are trying to compensate for the weak secondary & inside LB’s. The front 4 are not providing any consistent pressure, probably because we’re trying generate pressure with safety & corner blitzes. The holes are too big to hide.
If Baker has to throw 50 times a game, without anyone stepping up, then the turnovers will mount & the running game will become less effective.
I don’t expect we’ll look great or win the next two games, but the receivers should start to gain some experience that will start paying off - hopefully the bye week will allow us to rest up & regroup on defense, too. We’ll have to go on a run to close out the season, there won’t be any room for losses after SF & KC…
@white-tiger - I don’t think we’re talking about the same things or you were aware of my point with these numbers.
My suggestion is that our offense isn’t and hasn’t been the problem. Look at Baker’s first half against the Falcons. He had a near perfect first half and we still went into halftime down 24-17. The offense and Baker feel the pressure to score every drive because of our defenses ineptitude.
Our offense’s performance has kept our defense from having even worse stats because they do such a good job of ball control. Even without Evans and Godwin, Coen will continue to find ways to score.
Injuries are not the problem with our defense. We have been a bad pass defense for years now. The numbers above show how far apart the offense and the defense are. And if we did not find Coen this offseason, we would be in a dire position. Hopefully he’s with us next year.
Fair points, and I agree with some of that, I’d just argue that what we have left on offense isn’t going to sustain those numbers, exposing the defense even more.
It isn’t just injuries, it’s that lack of talent we knew we had at key the positions. My argument is, it’s not about the DC, either. We put Todd in this box, the defense performed better than expected, early, and before losing Calijah & Vita, a couple of corners, SirVocea, we just don’t have the depth behind those guys - and we’re trying to force KJ Britt into a coverage role, and Tyreke Funderburke from App State into a starting corner role…JTS & an invisible Chris Braswell, and a disappearing Diaby…
It’s more than Todd Bowles. He doesn’t sign/trade for defensive players for the holes we have, he coaches the available talent. You can say “next man up” but you can only expect it if you have something to work with.
You can say “next man up” but you can only expect it if you have something to work with.
Today they said the only replacement for Britt is a guy from the practice squad and we just signed a CB because we were down to no one.
I dont think that absolves Bowles because one of the big problems last game was the play of his experienced safeties, but its certainly a factor. Last years defense was giving up massive yards, but just got better in the RZ so to ehinote's point . . not a new thing
On the positive side, isnt McCollom greatly out performing Davis?
@white-tiger - I just don’t see if my friend. Bowles has a lot of say with his personnel. He felt he was in good shape with his edge players and corners. Britt was his starting MLB going into the season. A simple guy like me called each one of this positions out this summer and said we’d have major issues if we didn’t upgrade. And… we’ve had Vea and Kancey the last 3 games. Our whole starting front 7 from day one. The best management know when it’s over and if this season doesn’t turn around , especially the defense, Bowles will need to be shown the door.
@bucsbits - Absolutely our red zone defense saved Bowles defense last year. I’ve said that since last year. Teams moved up and down the field on us. But that’s my point. Teams know how to attack Bowles defense. We are every offense’s (and QB’s) wake up call. Chiefs and Mahomes will find their offense on Monday Night.
Bowles has a lot of say with his personnel. He felt he was in good shape with his edge players and corners. Britt was his starting MLB going into the season. A simple guy like me called each one of this positions out this summer and said we’d have major issues if we didn’t upgrade.
isn’t this contradictory?
If a “simple guy” like you and 1/2 the Red Board see the weaknesses at DE, LB etc then surely Bowles must too. If Bowles sees it like we all do BUT THERE IS NO CHANGE then there are external factors that outweigh his “say” on personnel, right?
I mean, if you just compare our offseason activity it’s down, right? When’s the last time we brought in some big FA? We shipped Davis OUT
We didn’t make any big moves in the draft either?
in other words, I certainly get the argument that Bowles isn’t great and that the league has figured him out BUT it is also true that we are limiting our personnel moves even with obvious deficiencies. No defensive coach would choose platooning LBs over one who can handle it all, least of all a DC who relies on player versatility for deception. No defensive coach would turn down a DE who can generate pressure on his own, if it was possible to get that person. We didn’t get one even when we got Barrett before (ie we know how to do it)
just a different way to look at it
Teams know how to attack Bowles defense.
I think you might be right but two things can be true and isn’t it also true that the team has held back in pursuing game changing free agents and players?
it seems like it is
@bucsbits - that’s it! I’ve said that Bowles is the type that would sit down with Licht and say “if I have to save on a position let’s do it at edge and corner. I can make that work.” But it’s a bad decision. He would prefer to build at DTs and safeties. That’s why his run defense is always pretty good. And his pass defense has been bad the last 3 years. And this is a passing league. These guys have egos. And their egos can get in the way.
I’m beginning to think we aren’t bringing anyone in because Licht & crew may have planned to see how far this current roster would get, on its own.
Look, as @bucsbits has said, we all knew where the weaknesses were, you know the experts at OBP knew it before we did.. they could have run out and tried to sign some of the available Edge/ILB/CB talent that was out there prior to the season starting - but they didn’t. It would have jacked up the cap credit card we’re just getting back in line. They could have made a mid-season trade for any one of those same positions - annd for the same reasons, they passed, even though ONE of those decisions could have made us more competitive.
or, you could let the tougher schedule play out, take your losses, go 9-8, 8-9, or worse…and get access to some of those upper end of the draft rounds, next year.
I don’t think it wa she guiding principle for this season - but I do think it was a worst-case-scenario at some point in this injury plagued season (my guess is that it was Mike & Chris went down in the same game), and they pivoted to the worst case scenario.
Don’t do any high-priced trades that could keep the team going, just play it out and see what happens and draft some defensive talent at spots in every round that you haven’t sniffed in several years.
Its just a thought… and it is a business.
We’ll see.
Zero pass rush. A ton of us called it out before the season and were told “we’re good.”
id that Bowles is the type that would sit down with Licht and say “if I have to save on a position let’s do it at edge and corner. I can make that work.” But it’s a bad decision. He would prefer to build at DTs and safeties. That’s why his run defense is always pretty good. And his pass defense has been bad the last 3 years. And this is a passing league. These guys have egos. And their egos can get in the way.
Again you may be right (and wouldn't it be awesome to know!) but Bowles does not strike me as an ego guy. Either way though, its not a big leap to see Bowles choose as you suggest when confronted with that choice because it also easy to imagine Bowles believeing he can make it up in blitzing.
Great conversation either way. Because we a e all speculating wouldn't it be great, even down the road, to hear the story of how this was all really playing out?
Zero pass rush. A ton of us called it out before the season and were told “we’re good.”
That response mostly came from people that get sucked into the preseason hype over young players. It happens every single year, and this year was no different.
But yes, it was pretty clear that Edge rushing was going to be weak again this season - and it certainly has been.
