Guest Columnist John Kinsley wrote a Summary for the 2019 Deep Ball Project.
The Deep Ball Project did a breakdown of each qualified QB. This summary compares them all per category. It's vastly convenient of a compilation! A couple of eye openers is that league average for deep ball passes (minimum of 21 yards) is 46.6 attempts and the average TDs scored on the deep ball are 4.75 TDs, but the average INTs are 2.38 INTs.
Winston had the highest improvement in 2019, but going from abysmal to mediocre isn't something worth celebrating.
21-30 yards Accuracy
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Brady: 58.1% (18/31), 6th overall
Winston: 47.8% (22/46), 20th overall
This was a very surprising stat to see Brady be the more accurate QB on throws between 21-30 yards from the Line of Scrimmage (LOS). That means the pass could be even further if it's a seven-step drop or in shotgun.
31+ yards Accuracy
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Brady: 26.3% (5/19), 28th overall
Winston: 39.5% (15/38), 19th overall
Oh. Both are in the bottom half of the league. Remember, Winston had a better WR corps who often win 50/50 balls. With that said, Winston likes chucking the ball around.
Under Shotgun
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Brady: 53.8% (21/39), 5th overall
Winston: 32.7% (18/55), 32nd overall
Now, this is an even crazier production for Winston. When it's a known passing situation, defenses have figured Winston out. Brady is just waiting to pick defenses apart in shotgun.
Under Center
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Brady: 18.2% (2/11), 30th overall
Winston: 65.5% (19/29), 7th overall
Winston is better under the center as team have to prepare for the run. Brady doesn't do great under the center when a deep ball is in play. Brady can't do a quick post-snap read if his eyes are facing the other direction and throw. Remember, Brady isn't mobile, but Winston is and that's where Winston has the advantage.
Open Windows
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Brady: 70.6% (12/17), 10th overall
Winston: 56.3% (18/32), 26th overall
Winston misses more receivers that are open! Big arm, but not accurate.
Tight Window
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Brady: 33.3% (11/33), 15th(tied) overall
Winston: 36.5% (19/52), 10th overall
Brady is almost as accurate as Winston in tight windows?!
In conclusion, Brady maybe a better fit to move the chains more than Winston does with passes greater than 20 yards. Now, imagine if Brady had the talent at WR like Winston did in 2019.
