Five offseason moves to improve every NFC South Team
Bill Barnwell
ESPN Staff Writer
Feb 13, 2019
NFC SOUTH
Let's get to the NFC South, where the Saints repeated as division champs for the first time in franchise history. It would hardly be a surprise to see New Orleans win the division for the third consecutive season in 2019, but if Drew Brees slips, the rest of a frequently entertaining division will be ready to pounce.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1. Cut DeSean Jackson and Beau Allen. The Bucs already cut Vinny Curry, and Allen might follow him out the door, thanks to a $5 million cap hit in a year where the draft is full of defensive linemen. The Bucs allowed 4.9 yards per carry and first downs on 31.8 percent of run attempts with Allen on the field, numbers that fell to 4.5 yards per rush and 25.8 percent, respectively, with Allen sidelined. Jackson's release seems to be little more than a formality.
2. Ask Gerald McCoy to take a pay cut. The Bucs have publicly floated the idea of releasing their star defensive tackle, which seems like a curious move given that they ranked 32nd in defensive DVOA last season. McCoy does turn 31 this month and has a $13 million cap hit, the fourth largest on the roster.
The argument for releasing McCoy is that the Bucs are going to move to a 3-4 base defense under Todd Bowles, and McCoy profiles best as a penetrating 3-technique tackle in a 4-3 defense, as he has played throughout his career. The sheer number of defensive linemen available in the draft also makes expensive veterans less valuable, and it's plausible that McCoy would struggle to find $13 million per season on the open market.
I don't think the Bucs should release McCoy. For one, the 4-3/3-4 distinction doesn't mean much in 2019. Bowles has already said the Bucs will be a one-gap defense, meaning McCoy will have chances to attack. In Bowles' final season with the Jets, they were in their base defense only 19.8 percent of the time, with the rest of their snaps either coming in goal-line situations or with five or more defensive backs on the field. The Jets were in a 4-3 for two-thirds of those base defense snaps, even after years with Bowles in charge. Bowles' scheme is less about 3-4 or 4-3 and more about finding creative ways to blitz out of nickel and dime packages.
Gerald McCoy, a six-time Pro Bowler, could be released this offseason, as the Bucs would owe $0 against the cap. Jason Getz/USA TODAY Sports
The Bucs don't really have the personnel to play in a 3-4, either. Their middle linebacker in 2018 was Kwon Alexander, who got hurt and is now a free agent. Lavonte David will have to move to one of the two inside linebacker spots, and although the roles should be similar, he'll have to go through an adjustment period. Jason Pierre-Paul, who has spent his entire career as a 4-3 defensive end, isn't going to turn into a cover linebacker at 30. The best fit for the Bucs is to stick in the 4-3 when they go with their base set.
What would make sense for the Bucs would be to restructure McCoy's deal as part of an extension. They could offer McCoy a four-year contract in the $50 million range with guarantees in 2019 and 2020 that simultaneously bring down his cap number for 2019. McCoy might not want to hit the open market, and the Bucs aren't in a position to be getting rid of talented defensive players.
3. Franchise Donovan Smith. Is Smith a franchise left tackle? No, probably not. The consistency hasn't yet been there for the Penn State product, on a per-game or a per-season basis. Stats LLC credits him with zero sacks allowed in 2016, but that was in a season in which he took 13 penalties. Smith has allowed either five or 5.5 sacks in each of his three other campaigns, but he also has stayed healthy and brought his penalty totals down from that 13-penalty mark to six last season.
The Bucs just hired a coach in Bruce Arians who loves to chuck the ball deep downfield. They need pass-blockers who can hold up under that strain, and if the Bucs lose Smith, the only other left tackle option on the market is Trent Brown, who is likely looking at franchise-caliber money. Tampa also has undrafted free agents backing up Smith and Demar Dotson on the outside. I'd lock up Smith and work toward a long-term deal.
4. Import the ex-Cardinals. You know Arians and Bowles are going to go back to the well and try to bring in some of the players who excelled under their stewardship in Arizona. The two obvious fits might be relative bargains. John Brown looked healthy for the first time in years during the first half of the season in Baltimore, but he never developed any chemistry with Lamar Jackson. Brown caught just eight passes on 30 targets for 114 yards over Jackson's seven starts. He could be the replacement for DeSean Jackson in Tampa.
The other fit would be Deone Bucannon, who went from looking like the prototype for the new hybrid linebacker during his time with Bowles to totally getting lost in the shuffle last season under Steve Wilks. Bucannon needs to end up in a place where the defensive coordinator will play to his strengths instead of emphasizing his weaknesses. Going back to what worked with Bowles would make sense for both parties, especially if the Bucs don't re-sign Alexander.
5. Bring back Patrick Murray. Now that the "Browns quarterback jersey" is being retired with the rise of Baker Mayfield, the next sadness jersey probably should be dedicated to Buccaneers kickers.
Murray is 39-of-47 (82.9 percent) on field goals. The rest of this bunch -- a group that includes two kickers given significant guaranteed money and one whom Licht traded up to draft in the second round -- is 77-of-109 (70.6 percent). At some point, Licht just shouldn't be allowed to evaluate kickers, right?
For the rest of the teams....
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/25966875/five-2019-offseason-moves-nfc-team-make-bill-barnwell-predicts-trades-free-agency-cuts
